Michael Burry just doubled down. After a Trump Truth Social post gave Palantir (PLTR) a quick bump, the man who called the housing crisis made it crystal clear: he's not selling his June 2027 $50 puts or December 2026 $100 puts. He believes the fundamental value sits well under $50 a share. The market's favorite contrarian sees a government-dependent AI hype stock trading at nosebleed multiples, vulnerable to competition from the likes of Anthropic and a broader software rotation. You hear this take everywhere—Palantir is overvalued, frothy, and one bad quarter from a reckoning.
Except the numbers buried in the filings tell a different story. In Q4 2025, Palantir delivered $1.41 billion in revenue, up 70% year-over-year and beating estimates. U.S. commercial revenue alone surged 137% to $507 million, while total U.S. revenue jumped 93% to $1.076 billion. For the full year 2025, adjusted free cash flow hit $2.27 billion at a 51% margin, up 82% from the prior year. That's not vaporware—it's cash hitting the balance sheet while the stock pulled back roughly 28% year-to-date as of the April 10, 2026 close around $128, down from its November 2025 peak near $207.
The real shift nobody wants to admit? Commercial is no longer the side hustle. U.S. commercial revenue for full-year 2025 grew 109% to $1.47 billion, and management guided U.S. commercial for 2026 above $3.144 billion—at least 115% growth. That guidance crushed prior consensus expectations of around $6.3 billion total revenue; instead, they're pointing to $7.18–7.20 billion overall, implying 61% company-wide growth. Adjusted operating margin in Q4 hit 57%, and the Rule of 40 score—the sum of revenue growth and profit margin—clocked 127%. You don't get those kinds of scores by riding government contracts alone.
Here's the deadpan fact bomb: Burry entered his puts when the stock was higher. Since then, Palantir grew Q4 revenue 70%, generated $2.27 billion in adjusted FCF for the year, and guided 61% growth—while the shares dropped 28% YTD. That's exactly the valuation reset value investors like Burry usually hunt for on the long side, yet he's short. The market prices in perpetual government dependence and hype fatigue. Filings show the opposite: commercial acceleration is driving incremental growth and margin expansion in the world's largest economy.
Customer metrics reinforce the bootcamp effect. Total customer count rose 34% year-over-year to 954. Existing customers are expanding spend aggressively—one energy client reportedly scaled from $4 million to $20 million ACV. U.S. commercial remaining deal value grew 145% year-over-year. This isn't one-off hype; it's repeatable platform adoption via AIP, where enterprises pay up because the software delivers measurable outcomes faster than legacy alternatives. Contrast that with pure-play AI model companies burning cash on inference costs. Palantir's edge is the full-stack integration that turns raw models into deployable, high-margin outcomes at scale.
Valuation compression has already done a lot of the heavy lifting. Trailing P/E sits around 200x on last year's earnings, but forward estimates on 61% guided growth compress that dramatically toward 99x. Adjusted FCF margins at 51–56% mean the business is self-funding its expansion without dilution drama. You own a company printing Rule of 40 scores north of 100 while the stock trades like it's still the old Palantir of 2022. The narrative lag is glaring.
None of this makes Palantir invincible. Execution risks exist in any hypergrowth software story—sales and marketing spend could spike, international traction could lag, or macro could hammer discretionary budgets. But the variant perception here is clear: consensus obsesses over the old government-heavy optics and sky-high multiples. The market is lazy on the commercial inflection that's already showing up in the 10-Qs and guidance. Burry's sub-$50 fair value collides head-on with cash flow generation and customer expansion metrics that no direct AI competitor is matching at this scale today.
You don't need to love the stock to see the asymmetry. The pullback created breathing room precisely as the fundamentals inflect. If commercial keeps compounding at these rates, the multiple rerates higher on proven scale, not hope. If it doesn't, the bears finally get their vindication. But betting against it right now ignores the clearest evidence of operational leverage kicking in that Palantir has ever printed.
Reality is the punchline. Burry's puts are loud, visible, and emotionally satisfying for the skeptics. They just happen to be fighting data that shows a business transitioning from government anchor to commercial rocket fuel, all while margins expand and cash piles up. The stock doesn't have to moon tomorrow. It just needs to stop getting punished for yesterday's story while delivering tomorrow's results. You've seen this movie before—consensus narratives die slow deaths, but numbers don't lie forever.