Start here if you're new
what it is
Palantir sells software that helps governments and companies run operations, analyze data, and deploy AI without breaking their own systems.
how it gets paid
Last year Palantir Tech made $4.5B in revenue. U.S. government was the main engine at $1.63B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 56.2% last year on a ~$4.5B FY base. A $3.1B / +160% vs. prior year line is almost always a quarter (or wrong base) mislabeled next to FY—do not treat it as a second full-year story.
what just happened
Palantir posted $0.25 in EPS versus a $0.14 estimate, a 78.57% beat.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
284.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
27.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
Palantir sells software that helps governments and companies run operations, analyze data, and deploy AI without breaking their own systems.
Palantir becomes the operating layer your team works inside every day. Software platform → the system people run missions and decisions on → ripping it out is painful. That stickiness helped it reach a 31.6% operating margin on $4.5B of revenue, while 55% of sales still came from government customers in 2024.
How they make money
$4.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +56.2% last year
U.S. government
$1.63B
International government
$0.84B
U.S. commercial
$1.34B
International commercial
$0.69B
The products that matter
government analytics platform
Gotham
inside a $4.5B business
this sits inside the same $4.5B revenue base and matters because palantir's government roots are still the credibility layer behind the story.
embedded
enterprise operating platform
Foundry
part of +56.2% FY growth
foundry is central to the commercial expansion narrative, but this snapshot does not disclose its standalone revenue. The whole company grew 56.2% last year in the revenue header—ignore stray 45.8% figures unless the filing supports them.
commercial bet
ai application layer
AIP
valuation driver
the market is not giving PLTR a $407B value for a normal software rollout. AIP matters because investors are assuming it helps turn $4.5B of revenue into something much larger from here.
expectations engine
Key numbers
284.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → this is the whole argument, because the business is good but the stock is priced like a religion.
31.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → this tells you Palantir is not just growing, it is growing with real discipline.
27.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit produced from money invested → anything near this level says management is turning spend into earnings efficiently.
55%
government mix
More than half of revenue still comes from government, which gives Palantir credibility and concentration risk in the same number.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 52.5% — keeps 52 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PLTR 3 years ago → it's now worth $245,630.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Palantir posted $0.25 in EPS versus a $0.14 estimate, a 78.57% beat.
If revenue prints near $3.1B with a huge vs. prior year %, label it as Q and reconcile to the ~$4.5B FY table. Gross margin 81.3% is only meaningful on the same period. Quiet part loud: execution can be strong while the multiple is already full.
$3.1B
revenue (Q · verify)
$0.25
eps (Q)
81.3%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
The 78.57% EPS beat mattered most because it showed Palantir is still outrunning expectations, which is the only way a 284.9x trailing multiple survives.
-
we look for another sharp vs. prior year advance in earnings, to $0.21 per share.
-
business prospects appear favorable for full-year 2026.we project revenues of roughly $6.3 billion, supported by continued customer additions and faster expansion within existing accounts.
-
importantly, our earnings presentation will shift to non-gaap beginning in 2026.this change excludes stock-based compensation, which totaled $488 million ($0.21 per share, after tax) through the first nine months of 2025.
-
our updated presentation should more closely align earnings with palantir’s cash generation.however, stock-based compensation is economically meaningful because it contributes to shareholder dilution, and investors should weigh that reality when assessing profitability.
-
the long-term runway is exciting, but a few questions remain.the recent acceleration in large, enterprise-wide expansions suggests the platform has become core infrastructure in the u.s.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is multiple compression if growth slips even slightly.
med
valuation has no chill
PLTR trades at 284.9x trailing earnings and roughly 149x the $1.15 FY2026 EPS estimate. When a stock is priced for perfection, small disappointments become big drawdowns.
At $170.96, the multiple is doing as much work as the business.
med
non-GAAP can make progress look cleaner than it is
Beginning in 2026, reported earnings will exclude stock-based compensation. That helps headline profit. It does not make dilution disappear.
Stock-based compensation totaled $488M through the first nine months of 2025, or $0.21 per share after tax.
med
the growth bar is already extreme
The market is looking for FY2026 revenue around $6B, with another estimate on this page at roughly $6.3B. That is a large jump from the current $4.5B base.
If growth cools before the numbers catch up to the price, the stock can rerate faster than the business changes.
med
one business model means one blast radius
This snapshot shows a single software revenue stream. There is no offsetting hardware segment, no dividend cushion, and little room to hide if demand slows.
100% of the current $4.5B revenue base sits inside the same core software story.
with one software platform generating 100% of its $4.5B revenue, any slowdown, dilution surprise, or multiple reset hits the whole story at once.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the jump from $4.5B to $6B
That revenue step is what the current valuation is leaning on. If growth stalls before then, the stock has a multiple problem.
calendar
the first full non-GAAP reporting cycle in 2026
You want cleaner profits and lower dilution. If only the accounting gets cleaner, the market will eventually notice.
trend
whether EPS can move from $0.60 to $1.15
That is the earnings bridge the stock is asking you to believe. It needs to happen without stock comp doing all the cosmetic work.
risk
price stability is only 5 / 100
This is your reminder that PLTR is not a quiet compounder. Great businesses can still trade like chaos when expectations are this high.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think PLTR can beat most stocks over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle on balance-sheet risk, even if the stock itself behaves more dramatically.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the highest ranking. Translation: the trend has been strong enough that analysts still give it the benefit of the doubt.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than they are for steadier software names. Expect surprises, both good and bad.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,579 buyers vs. 1,089 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$105
$298
$171
current price
$202
target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $195 (+15% · 4% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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