Start here if you're new
what it is
Exxon Mobil pumps oil and gas, refines fuel, and makes chemicals that end up in your car, plane, and factory.
how it gets paid
Last year Exxon Mobil made $332.2B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.0% last year. The number that mattered was $1.71 EPS. That missed the $1.84 estimate by 7.07%.
what just happened
$1.71 EPS came in below $1.84 expected, a 7.07% miss.
At a glance
A++ balance sheet — fortress balance sheet — as safe as it gets
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.0x trailing p/e — full for a major oil— matches “not cheap” in the hook
2.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 79/100 — average
What they do
Exxon Mobil pumps oil and gas, refines fuel, and makes chemicals that end up in your car, plane, and factory.
You are buying 19.9 billion barrels of proved reserves. That means Exxon already owns the stuff it plans to sell, so your bet starts with inventory, not hope. It also pumps 3.0 million barrels of oil a day and 8.1 billion cubic feet of gas a day, so the scale is real before the market gets opinionated.
How they make money
$332.2B
annual revenue · revenue declined -5.0% last year
total revenue
$332.2B
5.0%
The products that matter
extracts and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and gas production
19.9B barrels · proved reserves
this reserve base equals roughly 10 years of supply at current production rates. that's the asset base underwriting everything else you see on this page.
reserve life
refines, processes, and sells energy
Integrated operations
$332.2B · total revenue
it's the whole machine, and it still declined 5.0% last year. scale helps with durability. it does not repeal the cycle.
entire business
Key numbers
$332.2B
annual sales
That is the size of the machine. Sales still fell 5.0%, so more production did not stop the top line from shrinking.
22.0x
trailing p/e
You are paying 22 dollars for each dollar of trailing earnings. That is a full price for a business with -1.5% projected earnings growth.
2.8%
dividend yield
You get paid 2.8% while you wait. That helps, but it does not excuse a valuation that is above the oil patch's usual mood.
$139
18m target
VL's target is about 8% below the current $151.21. The setup says patience, not chasing.
Financial health
A++
strength
- balance sheet grade A++ — the absolute highest — fortress balance sheet
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $32.8B (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.5% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A++ — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in XOM 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,660.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
$1.71 EPS came in below $1.84 expected, a 7.07% miss.
News on this page cites fourth-quarter sales ~$80.0B with $1.71 EPS (below ~$1.84 expected). Full-year revenue stays ~$332.2B in the summary above— ignore any $249.9B “quarter” field; it does not match Q4 scale.
~$80B
Q4 revenue (approx.)
$1.71
Q4 diluted EPS
30.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $1.71 EPS. That missed the $1.84 estimate by 7.07%, which says the quarter was fine for headlines and weak for perfection traders.
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exxon mobil’s stock price has skyrocketed over the past three months.subsequent to trading in a relatively narrow range since 2022, exxon shares recently jumped to fresh all-time highs, beyond the $150 per share mark.
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in fact, the equity has appreciated nearly 30% in value since our last report in late november.favorable developments on global production prospects for the company (discussed further below), in addition to resilient earnings and strong support from wall street analysts, were likely the catalysts behind the latest price advance.
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fourth-quarter 2025 financial results were decent, all things considered.sales of $80.0 billion and earnings of $1.71 per share dipped only modestly relative to the prior year and on a sequential basis. indeed, management was navigating a weaker commodity pricing environment and an uncertain geopolitical landscape. even so, relatively good results were aided by cumulative structural cost savings, increased refinery production levels, and consistent share buyback activity. although full-year 2025 sales and earnings took a step back versus 2024, we think exxon is well positioned to return to growth mode in 2026 and beyond.
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the global oil giant is making some strong operational moves.to start, the company completed the acquisition of fpso one guyana, a floating vessel which is being deployed at the yellowtail project in guyana.
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this is expected to increased daily production by more than 200,000 barrels.next, exxon resolved an asset dispute in colombia, which ought to allow the company to accelerate operations in the magdalena valley basin. moreover, a plethora of project startups across both its upstream operation and renewable diesel units are expected to boost top- and bottom-line results this year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is simple: you are paying above the $139 long-term midpoint for a business that still moves with oil, gas, and execution on new barrels.
high
commodity price reset
Exxon generated $332.2B in annual revenue, and all of it sits somewhere in the oil-and-gas value chain. If crude and gas prices weaken, the revenue line feels it quickly.
At $151 versus a $139 long-term midpoint, the stock leaves you less room for disappointment than the balance sheet might suggest.
med
production growth shows up later
Part of the recent optimism rests on Guyana, project startups, and operational cleanup. The Yellowtail vessel alone is expected to add more than 200,000 barrels a day.
If those barrels arrive late, you are left with a premium multiple on a business still waiting for the growth phase to hit the statements.
low
the income case stays merely fine
The dividend yield is 2.8%. That's real income, but it is not large enough to bail out a weak total-return setup on its own.
If earnings estimates keep drifting lower, you may own a very safe stock with a very average outcome.
What would change our mind: revenue returning to growth from a year ago, EPS estimates stabilizing, or the stock moving back toward the $139 midpoint without a deterioration in operations.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
current price versus long-term target
$151 today versus a $139 midpoint is the cleanest tension on the page. If estimates do not improve, that gap stops looking confident and starts looking expensive.
flow
institutional buying streak
Institutions have been net buyers for three straight quarters. If that support fades after a nearly 30% three-month run, sentiment loses one of its cleaner pillars.
earnings
next quarter's revenue line
Q4 delivered $1.71 EPS on $85.3B in revenue. The next print needs more than cost discipline. It needs a sales trend that looks less cyclical and less fragile.
risk
whether the annual decline was the low point
Annual revenue fell 5.0% last year. Stabilization is step one. Without it, the recent rally rests on future barrels and a lot of goodwill.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
outlook rank 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a normal market performer, not a near-term standout.
risk profile
safest 5%
risk rank 1 — lower balance-sheet risk than almost any stock you can buy.
chart momentum
average
momentum rank 3 — strong recent performance, but not enough for the system to call it exceptional.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings can swing hard with the cycle. In plain English: the balance sheet is steady, the profit stream is not.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,936 buyers vs. 1,787 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 2.7B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$99
$178
$151
current price
$139
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $178
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