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what it is
Xenon is a 316-person drug company developing three neuroscience treatments for seizure and nerve disorders.
how it gets paid
Last year Xenon Pharma made $8M in revenue.
what just happened
Revenue was $8M while EPS sank to -$3.05.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$3.01 fy2024 eps est
$9M fy2022 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Xenon is a 316-person drug company developing three neuroscience treatments for seizure and nerve disorders.
With 316 employees, this is a small team, not a sprawling drug empire. XEN496 is in Phase III (late-stage human testing), while XEN1101 and NBI-921352 are in Phase II (mid-stage testing). If you own it, your payoff depends on one of those 3 shots landing, because $8M of revenue will not carry the story.
How they make money
$8M
annual revenue
total revenue
$8M
n/a
The products that matter
lead epilepsy drug candidate
azetukalner (XEN1101)
Q3 2026 regulatory window
this is the asset carrying the valuation. The company has $7.5M of collaboration revenue and a roughly $5B market cap, so the stock is being priced for what azetukalner could be, not for what Xenon is today.
the main event
early-stage pipeline optionality
XEN007
preclinical stage
this is pipeline depth, not present valuation support. Until something beyond the lead asset matures, you should treat the rest of the pipeline as optionality rather than a second pillar.
backup, not backbone
research platform
ion channel discovery
30% unmet need context
the science matters because existing epilepsy drugs fail roughly 30% of patients. That creates demand for a new mechanism. It does not create revenue until a drug is approved and prescribed.
science, not sales
Key numbers
$8M
annual revenue
That is too small to cover much trial risk, so one approval matters more than the current sales line.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. This says the company spent far more than it sold. The business is still mostly a cash-burning lab.
$7M
long-term debt
Debt is tiny versus a $5B market cap, so the balance sheet is not the main problem.
0.9
beta
The stock has been a little less wobbly than the market, but trial news can still punch hard.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $7M (0% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for XENE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue was $8M while EPS sank to -$3.05.
Sales fell 58.33% vs. prior year. EPS deteriorated sharply vs. prior year — vs. prior year % past 100% on EPS is not a clean read when the comparison crosses profit/loss lines; check dollar EPS in the filing. The quarter leaned on pipeline hopes, not operating strength.
$8M
revenue
-$3.05
eps
58.33%
revenue vs. last year
the number that mattered
Revenue was $8M. That is the whole problem, because a business this small cannot hide a $3.05 loss per share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Xenon does not have the usual luxury of multiple mature revenue lines covering for each other. A roughly $5B valuation is leaning on one lead program, a fresh cash pile, and a timeline the market already knows by heart.
med
single-asset concentration
A roughly $5B market cap sits on one lead program. If azetukalner stumbles, investors are left valuing a company with just $7.5M in collaboration revenue and no commercial base.
Impact: this is the core thesis, not one variable among many.
med
cash burn and future dilution
The $707.7M financing reduces near-term pressure, but trailing EPS is still -$3.62 and product revenue is still absent. If timelines slip or launch prep costs swell, capital needs come back fast.
Impact: more shares outstanding can dilute any future approval upside.
med
commercial execution after approval
Approval is not the finish line. Xenon still has to turn a science story into prescriptions in a market where physician habits already exist and the company has no product-sales history in this snapshot.
Impact: a slower launch would make today's valuation look early rather than attractive.
med
pipeline depth is still thin
XEN007 is preclinical and the rest of the platform is still earlier-stage optionality. There is no second asset in this snapshot carrying comparable financial weight today.
Impact: if the lead program disappoints, there is limited near-term fallback inside the pipeline.
What would change our mind: a material azetukalner setback, a timing slip beyond Q3 2026, or another large financing soon after the $707.7M raise. If one of those happens, the market has to value Xenon as a pipeline again, not as a coming launch.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
regulatory
Q3 2026 azetukalner timeline
This is the date stack the stock trades around. If that window slips, your valuation framework has to change with it.
cash runway
whether $707.7M actually buys enough time
The financing bought breathing room. Here's the thing: you still need to watch whether spending discipline holds or launch prep simply eats the cushion.
ownership
signs the market is rethinking a one-asset story
With 95.45% institutional ownership, conviction and crowding can become the same trade. That matters when one catalyst carries almost all the value.
business build
the gap between current revenue and future launch spending
If revenue stays near $7.5M while losses widen, this stays a pure catalyst stock. If you start seeing visible launch preparation, the thesis gets more concrete.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
65 / 100
Losses are somewhat modelable, but clinical-stage spending still moves the numbers around. In human-speak, analysts can estimate the burn more easily than the breakthrough.
risk rank
2
This metric says safer than 80% of stocks. The catch is that business concentration does not show up cleanly in one comfortingly small number.
beta
0.9
Beta measures how much a stock tends to move with the market. At 0.9, XENE looks almost normal on paper. The trial calendar is why it does not behave normally in your portfolio.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for XENE is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$46
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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