XVARY Composite Score
53
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Wynn runs high-end casino resorts in Las Vegas, Boston, Macau, and soon the U.A.E.
How it gets paid
Last year Wynn Resorts made $7.14B in revenue. Casinos was the main engine at ~$4.21B, or 59% of sales.
What just happened
Q4 operating revenue $1.87B · adj. EPS $1.17 · GAAP EPS $0.82.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~37× trailing GAAP P/E (FY2025 EPS ~$3.14) · ~28× on adj. ~$4.19
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 53/100 — below average
What They Do
Wynn runs high-end casino resorts in Las Vegas, Boston, Macau, and soon the U.A.E.
This business wins by owning trips you do not casually downgrade — gaming, rooms, F&B, and retail under one roof. FY2025 operating revenue was nearly flat vs. prior year at ~$7.14B. In Q4 2025, Wynn Palace operating revenue rose ~$33M vs. prior year and Wynn Macau ~$7.7M, while Las Vegas operating revenue slipped ~$11M and Encore Boston Harbor ~$2.5M vs the prior-year quarter (company release).
How They Make Money
$7.14B
FY2025 operating revenue · ~flat vs FY2024 (~+$10M)
Casinos
~$4.21B
Rooms
$1.21B
Other
$1.70B
The Products That Matter
Macau casino operations
Wynn Macau
$371.3M quarterly revenue · +2.1%
it generated $371.3M in operating revenue last quarter, up 2.1% from a year ago. Macau matters because it is one of the clearest recovery levers in the story. It just is not moving fast yet.
China exposure
Las vegas casino operations
Wynn Las Vegas
$240.8M Adj. Property EBITDAR · Q4 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $240.8M vs $267.4M in Q4 2024 — Vegas casino volumes/ADRs helped, but win percentage and mix moved vs. prior year.
cash engine
UAE development project
Wynn Al Marjan
target Q1 2027 opening
Wynn Al Marjan Island is expected to open in the first quarter of 2027 per the Feb 12, 2026 release; life-to-date JV cash contributions ~$914M through Q4 2025. Still largely pre-operating cash flow to the parent equity story.
key catalyst
Key Numbers
~$10.55B
total debt
Current + long-term debt outstanding ~$10.55B at Dec 31, 2025 (Macau, WRF, Las Vegas, consolidated JV tranches) — refinancing and rate matter.
~37× / ~28×
GAAP / adj. P/E
Illustrative on ~ $116.84: FY2025 diluted GAAP EPS ~$3.14 vs adjusted ~$4.19 — always reconcile to your vendor’s share count and adjustments.
15.7%
operating margin
Operating margin (money left after running the resorts → so what: Wynn keeps about 16 cents from each revenue dollar before interest and taxes).
10.0%
return on capital
Return on capital (profit from the money tied up in the business → so what: decent, but not amazing for a premium brand with heavy assets).
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- total debt ~$10.55B · Dec 31, 2025
- cash (excl. WML short-term investments) ~$1.46B · plus liquidity on revolvers
- GAAP net margin (FY2025) ~4.6% · net income ~$327M on ~$7.14B revenue
B+ — liquidity exists, but gross debt vs GAAP earnings is the tension.
Total Return vs. Market
source: not asserted
What Just Happened
Q4 / FY 2025
Q4 operating revenue $1.87B · adj. EPS $1.17 · GAAP EPS $0.82
Feb 12, 2026 release: Q4 operating revenues $1.87B vs $1.84B prior-year quarter (+~1.5%). Adjusted diluted EPS $1.17 vs $2.42; GAAP diluted EPS $0.82 vs $2.29. Adjusted Property EBITDAR $568.8M vs $619.1M. FY2025 operating revenues $7.14B; diluted GAAP EPS $3.14 vs $4.35; adjusted diluted EPS $4.19 vs $6.02. Dividend declared $0.25 /share (payable Mar 4, 2026).
$1.87B
Q4 revenue
$1.17
adj. EPS
$568.8M
adj. EBITDAR
the number that mattered
Property-level EBITDA pressure while building Al Marjan: consolidated Adj. Property EBITDAR down ~$50M vs. prior year in Q4 — the stock debates whether Vegas/Macau stabilization and Q1 2027 UAE opening close that gap.
-
Q4 2025: Wynn Palace operating revenue +$33.4M vs. prior year; Wynn Macau +$7.7M; Las Vegas operating revenue −$11.4M; Encore Boston Harbor −$2.5M.
-
Wynn Al Marjan Island: tower topped out in Q4; opening currently expected Q1 2027; $79.2M JV contribution in the quarter.
-
Liquidity: cash & equivalents ~$1.46B (excl. WML short-term investments); substantial revolver capacity disclosed in the release.
source: Wynn Q4/FY2025 results (PRNewswire) · Feb 12, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is an Al Marjan opening that slips, costs more, or opens into weaker demand than investors are pricing in.
Med
Wynn Al Marjan execution risk
The company is building a multibillion-dollar UAE resort targeted for early 2027. Large projects slip. Large projects get more expensive. This one also carries the cleanest future-growth narrative in the stock.
Any delay pushes out the easiest part of the bull case and leaves you with a ~4.6% GAAP net margin business under a ~$10.5B debt stack for longer.
Med
Macau recovery and policy risk
Macau generated $371.3M in quarterly revenue and was up 2.1% from a year ago. That recovery path still depends on travel demand, local policy, and gaming regulation. You do not control any of that as a shareholder.
A slower rebound leaves Wynn paying a premium multiple before the premium growth arrives.
Med
Thin margins meet heavy debt
FY2025 GAAP net margin is only ~4.6% (~ $327M net income on ~$7.14B operating revenue) with ~$10.55B total debt outstanding — interest and macro shocks hit faster than at a light-asset compounder.
Multiples look different on GAAP vs adjusted EPS; either way, leverage magnifies operational variance.
With ~$10.55B debt and ~4.6% GAAP net margin on ~$7.14B revenue, Wynn needs property EBITDA to stabilize and Al Marjan to hit the Q1 2027 window. If either wobbles, the equity story thins quickly.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Catalyst
Wynn Al Marjan timeline
Company currently expects opening in Q1 2027 (Feb 12, 2026 release). Slippage or budget creep hits the catalyst before the property generates cash.
Metric
Macau revenue growth
Macau was up 2.1% from a year ago. You want to see that number accelerate. Recovery stories get expensive when recovery slows.
Profitability
Adj. Property EBITDAR vs revenue
Q4 operating revenue rose slightly vs. prior year, but Adj. Property EBITDAR fell ~$50M — watch whether margins recover as management describes in 2026.
Balance sheet
Debt tolerance
~$10.55B total debt is manageable while operations and capital markets cooperate. If Vegas softens or Macau stalls, leverage becomes the story.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting normal in the near term, not one with a clean short-term edge.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits around the middle of the pack on risk, helped by real assets and held back by leverage.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the chart looks stronger than the fundamentals. Welcome to a stock where price action and business quality are arguing.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
That is very low. If you own this, expect noisy quarters and the occasional unpleasant surprise.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
13F-style institutional flow for WYNN is not verified line-by-line on this snapshot — use your terminal if you need net buyer/seller counts.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$117
Current price
$116.84
Target midpoint · from current
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