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what it is
It owns timberland, makes wood products, and sells land-linked assets.
how it gets paid
Last year Weyerhaeuser made $6.9B in revenue. Wood Products was the main engine at $5.0B, or 72% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.1% last year. Revenue at $5.4B matters because it shows the cycle is doing the heavy lifting.
what just happened
Revenue hit $5.4B and EPS reached $0.35.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
123.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
It owns timberland, makes wood products, and sells land-linked assets.
Weyerhaeuser controls 10.0 million U.S. acres and 14.0 million licensed Canadian acres. You cannot copy that land base with a better app. Operating margin → profit after running the business → 19.0%, while annual revenue still slipped 3.1% to $6.9B. The land stays; the cycle moves.
How they make money
$6.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.1% last year
Wood Products
$5.0B
Timberlands
$1.5B
Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources
$0.4B
The products that matter
owns, harvests, and monetizes timberland
Timberland Management
$6.9B revenue · 11M acres
this snapshot is thin on segment detail, but the disclosed business still sits on 11 million owned acres and all $6.9B of revenue flows through that timber-and-land base.
the core asset
Key numbers
$23
18-mo target
That sits $1.62 below your $24.62 price, so the cited target is already under the tape.
3.7%
dividend yield
You get paid 3.7% to wait, which helps when the stock is priced above the target.
19.0%
operating margin
Nineteen cents of every sales dollar stays after running the mills, which is solid for a commodity business.
$5.0B
long debt
This is the fixed bill you carry through housing cycles and rate changes.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $5.0B (22% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.4% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WY 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,510.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $5.4B and EPS reached $0.35.
Gross margin was 16.1%, so the mills still made money. The bigger story is that volume and pricing did the work.
$5.4B
revenue
$0.35
eps
16.1%
gross margin
revenue jump
Revenue at $5.4B matters because it shows the cycle is doing the heavy lifting, not just cuts.
-
weyerhaeuser is likely to show some advancement within its legacy businesses in 2026.seasonally low harvesting levels across timberlands in the u.s. west are helping balance local log markets. assuming lumber demand regains some ground, there is upside potential to the company’s holdings in the region. conversely, timberlands in the u.s south are facing the likelihood of slow progress due to elevated regional log inventories.
-
the pace of the rebound hinges on the health of the spring building season.
-
in total, harvest levels are probably going to approximate 35.5 million tons.concurrently, there is positive news in the wood products segment, specifically, benchmark prices for lumber and oriented strandboard have steadily increased in recent months.
-
conditions within this timber reit’s newly established ventures are strengthening.weyerhaeuser has changed the name of its real estate, energy, and natural resources unit, to strategic land solutions (sls). sls will be composed of three business lines: real estate, natural resources, and climate solutions.
-
healthy demand for rural properties should result in significant premiums to timber value.meanwhile, the climate solutions category is positioned to make incremental contributions due to the completion of a sizable conservation easement transaction in florida. it recently secured approval for a fifth forest carbon project, and has four additional proposals in the development pipeline.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a housing-and-lumber rebound that never really arrives.
high
spring building season disappointment
The company is still tied to residential construction demand. If the spring building season underwhelms, the hoped-for rebound in lumber demand gets pushed out again.
puts pressure on a business that already saw revenue decline 3.1%
high
lumber and osb price volatility
Recent benchmark price improvement helps the story. It can reverse just as quickly. This is still a commodity-linked earnings model.
with a 4.7% quarterly net margin, price swings do outsized damage to profit
med
thin profitability leaves little room for error
The hard-asset story sounds stable. The math is less forgiving. Annual net margin was 6.1%, return on capital was 4.5%, and return on equity was 6%.
small operational misses can make the 123.1x trailing p/e look even stranger
med
strategic land solutions may stay incremental
There is some real optionality in rural properties, natural resources, and climate solutions. But this snapshot gives no segment revenue breakdown, which usually means the contribution is still small.
if higher-value land monetization stays modest, investors are left with the core timber cycle
With a 6.1% net margin on $6.9B of revenue and just 4.7% margin last quarter, WY does not need a disaster to miss expectations. It just needs commodity conditions to stay mediocre.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether earnings catch up to the multiple
123.1x trailing earnings and roughly 82x forward earnings only work if profits rebound fast. If they do not, the stock stays expensive on the numbers that matter.
trend
revenue direction
Revenue fell 3.1% last year. The first thing to watch is simple: does that number turn positive again, or keep sliding.
earnings
next quarterly margin print
Last quarter came in at $0.11 EPS on $1.7B of revenue with a 4.7% net margin. Margin improvement matters more than a headline beat here.
flow
institutional selling streak
Institutions have been net sellers for three straight quarters. If that keeps going, it tells you the big money still sees better setups elsewhere.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving normally, not one flashing a strong short-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-road risk. Not a bunker stock. Not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you much edge right now.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
earnings predictability is low. Translation: expect the cycle to make these numbers lumpy.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 314 buyers vs. 323 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$29
$25
current price
$23
target midpoint · 7% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+60% · 15% ann'l return)
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