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what it is
Wingstop sells chicken wings through 2,563 mostly franchised restaurants and collects fees, royalties, and brand-driven sales growth.
how it gets paid
Last year Wingstop made $697M in revenue. franchise royalties was the main engine at $257M, or 37% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.4% last year. The stock of wingstop has recently rebounded from depressed late-2025 levels.
what just happened
Wingstop posted quarterly EPS of $1.96 versus a $1.04 estimate, an 88.46% beat.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
65.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
28.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
Wingstop sells chicken wings through 2,563 mostly franchised restaurants and collects fees, royalties, and brand-driven sales growth.
Wingstop wins because it sells one craving. Then it repeats it 2,563 times. With 99% of stores franchised, franchised → other people fund the stores → so what: you get growth without funding most of the buildout yourself. The menu stays tight at 12 sauces, and carry-out plus delivery account for the majority of sales, which fits how you already eat.
How they make money
$697M
annual revenue · their business grew +11.4% last year
franchise royalties
$257M
+12.1%
advertising fund revenue
$244M
+12.1%
company-owned restaurant sales
$132M
+11.4%
franchise fees
$42M
+11.4%
other revenue
$22M
+11.4%
The products that matter
franchised wing restaurants
Wingstop restaurants
$0.7B · 2,500+ locations
it is the whole $0.7B revenue base, spread across more than 2,500 locations, with 99% of the system owned by franchisees rather than Wingstop itself.
99% franchised
royalties and fee stream
Franchise economics
30.5% margin
the reason this business earns a 30.5% operating margin is the model. Franchisees absorb much of the store-level capital burden while corporate keeps a higher-margin revenue stream.
asset-light
brand and menu focus
Wing-led concept
12 flavors · one category
the simplicity helps scale, but it also concentrates the bet. A brand built around one premium protein does not have many places to hide if traffic or pricing softens.
single-concept
Key numbers
65.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → so what: you are paying $65.80 for each $1 of profit, which leaves little room for mistakes.
30.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what: this is fat for restaurants and shows the franchise model is doing the hard work.
28.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from money invested → so what: Wingstop turns capital into earnings better than most restaurant chains.
$1.2B
long-term debt
The brand is asset-light. The debt is not. That matters if the growth story cools.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $1.2B (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.4% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WING 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,280.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Wingstop posted quarterly EPS of $1.96 versus a $1.04 estimate, an 88.46% beat.
The quarter was loud. Yahoo Finance shows an 88.46% EPS surprise, while the latest quarter revenue figure provided was $521 million, up 197% vs. prior year. Consensus and company data around quarterly revenue appear mismatched, so treat the revenue print carefully.
$521M
revenue
$1.96
eps
30.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 88.46% EPS beat matters most because expensive stocks need proof, and Wingstop delivered one of the few things that can justify 65.8x earnings.
-
the stock of wingstop has recently rebounded from depressed late-2025 levels.
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indeed, the shares have risen some 25% in value since our mid-november report.we think most of the climb has to do with investor optimism about potentially stronger discretionary spending patterns through the holidays and their influence on the rapidly expanding restaurant chain's 2026 results. we tweaked our forecast for 2026 results higher since our last report.
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we still look for 2025 revenues of $700 million and earnings per share of $4.05, vs. prior year increases of about 12% and almost 10%, respectively. (note that the organization was set to publish those results as this report went to press.) as a reminder, the stock's decline from much higher levels in 2024-2025 occurred as comparable-sales growth swung from 18%-20% in 2023-2024, to a decline in 2025 that we estimate at 2%-4%.
-
we are now a bit more sanguine about wingstop's growth in the current year, though.
-
we expect a nearly 17% climb in the count of stores (to 515), or nearly matching the record 18%-19% surge we forecast for this past year.helped by a mid-single-digit anticipated increase in same-store sales, our top-line view for wingstop of $800 million, is higher by $10 million. and, with the vast majority of expansion from higher-margin franchises, we added a dime to our profit estimate for 2026, now at $4.85 per share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is multiple compression on a 65.8x earnings stock. Wingstop can keep executing and still disappoint the share price if growth slows even modestly.
med
valuation has no shock absorber
At 65.8x trailing earnings, you are paying a premium usually reserved for businesses with very long runways and very little operational friction.
If quarterly revenue growth keeps cooling from the current 8% pace, the multiple can shrink even if profits keep rising.
med
$1.2B in debt is real
Long-term debt stands at $1.2B, or 14% of capital, alongside a B balance sheet grade. That is manageable in a clean growth story and less comfortable in a stumble.
The business model is asset-light. The capital structure is not. If sales momentum fades, leverage gets louder.
med
single-concept concentration
Wingstop sells focus as a strength, and it is. But focus also means the entire $0.7B revenue base sits on one concept and one premium protein category.
There is no hidden second engine here. If consumer appetite, pricing tolerance, or wing economics soften, the whole story feels it.
A $7B market cap on $0.7B of revenue, backed by $1.2B in long-term debt, leaves you with a narrow margin for error.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
quarterly revenue growth vs. 8%
The latest quarter grew 8% from a year ago. Above that, the premium multiple stays easier to defend. Below that, the valuation argument gets tougher fast.
trend
whether EPS keeps outrunning sales
EPS rose 16% while revenue rose 8%. Same quarter. That spread is the franchise model working. You want to see it persist.
next report
another clean quarter is required
With a 65.8x trailing p/e, a merely fine quarter is not the same as a good stock reaction. Expectations are doing half the analysis for you.
risk
institutional selling pressure
176 buyers versus 260 sellers in 3q2025 is not a collapse signal. It is a reminder that sophisticated holders are not treating this as an obvious bargain.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
outlook rank 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see an edge here over the next 12 months.
risk profile
below average
risk rank 4 — the stock swings more than most, which fits a 20 / 100 price stability score.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
momentum rank 5 — this is the weakest technical bucket. The business may be consistent. The tape is not.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
management is reliable on the numbers. That helps the business case, even when the stock case gets harder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
176 buyers vs. 260 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 34.3M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$193
$461
$267
current price
$327
target midpoint · +23% from current · 3-5yr high: $525 (+95% · 19% ann'l return)
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