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what it is
Winnebago makes motorhomes, towables, and boats for dealers in the U.S. and Canada.
how it gets paid
Last year Winnebago Inds made $2.8B in revenue. Towables was the main engine at $1.22B, or 44% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.9% last year. Since the good times seem sustainable, we have upped our earnings estimate for fiscal 2026 by $0.75 a share, to $2.50, on roughly a 5%.
what just happened
$0.38 beat the year-ago loss, but it missed the $0.48 forecast.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
49.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Winnebago makes motorhomes, towables, and boats for dealers in the U.S. and Canada.
Winnebago reaches about 760 dealers. That is 760 places where your buyer can touch the product before paying. Market share → your slice of the category → about 19.9% in motorhomes keeps the brand on the lot. Leaving is painful when the dealer is already the showroom.
How they make money
$2.8B
annual revenue · their business grew -5.9% last year
Motorhomes
$1.16B
Towables
$1.22B
Marine products
$0.37B
Other
$0.05B
The products that matter
manufactures motorized RVs
Motor Homes
19.9% market share · part of $2.8B revenue
This is the piece with disclosed scale in the snapshot: 19.9% share in motor homes. It matters because your core demand signal still lives in a market where purchases are easy to delay.
core demand
manufactures towable RVs
Towable RVs
part of the $2.8B revenue base
Towables broaden the lineup, but the snapshot does not break out segment revenue. That means you should treat this as part of the same $2.8B cyclical revenue pool that fell 5.9% last year.
portfolio breadth
manufactures boats
Marine Products
part of the $2.8B revenue base
Marine gives Winnebago another lane, but not another business model. It still sits inside the same discretionary wallet, and the company still earned only a 2.4% net margin on total revenue.
diversification bet
Key numbers
$2.50
FY2026 EPS
That is up from $0.91 in FY2025. You are buying a rebound, not a steady grower.
$2.8B
annual revenue
Sales were $2.8B last year, and they fell 5.9%. That is the backdrop for every recovery story here.
49.2x
trailing p/e
You are paying 49.2 years of last year’s earnings for an RV maker. That is the whole argument.
3.3%
dividend yield
You get paid 3.3% while waiting. That matters when the stock already sits below the $38 target.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $541M (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.5% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WGO 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,790.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
$0.38 beat the year-ago loss, but it missed the $0.48 forecast.
Revenue rose to $703M, up 12% vs. prior year, and gross margin held at 12.7%. The business is healing, but not fast enough to clear every forecast.
$703M
revenue
$0.38
eps
12.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin at 12.7% mattered because it showed the company kept more from each sale than a year earlier.
-
the company reported adjusted fiscal first-quarter earnings of $0.38 a share, well above our estimate and the year-ago figure, on a better-than-anticipated 12% top-line advance. (note that, we will be reporting adjusted earnings per share for ease of comparison.) a lion’s share of the good news can be attributed to the motorhome and towable rv segments, primarily driven by new products, select pricing actions, production discipline, strong cost management, and a product lineup that is more aligned with current consumer demand.
-
moreover, gross profit margin during the quarter increased 40 basis points, to 12.7%, thanks to volume leverage, partially offset by higher warranty expense.
-
since the good times seem sustainable, we have upped our earnings estimate for fiscal 2026 by $0.75 a share, to $2.50, on roughly a 5% increase in revenues.
-
and the investment community certainly seems enthused.
-
to wit, wgo stock has jumped approximately 50% in value since our late-october review, versus roughly a 5.0% uptick in the s&p 500 index over the same period.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is rv and marine demand cracking under high rates.
med
discretionary demand rollover
Winnebago sells products consumers can postpone. If confidence weakens or financing stays expensive, orders can disappear faster than fixed costs do.
All reported revenue sits inside a $2.8B business already down 5.9% from last year.
med
margin squeeze
Gross margin improved to 12.7%, but net margin was still just 0.8% last quarter. That is not a lot of cushion if material costs or promotions move the wrong way.
A business earning 2.4% net margins does not need a huge shock to feel it in earnings.
med
recovery already priced in
Trailing p/e is 49.2x while return on capital is 4.0%. The market is paying for better days ahead, not rewarding current performance.
If estimate upgrades stall, multiple compression can do the damage even before revenue does.
med
diversification that does not diversify
Marine products give the company another category, but not another economic engine. Boats and RVs still depend on the same discretionary buyer.
That leaves 100% of the reported $2.8B revenue base tied to optional spending.
A downturn does not need to be dramatic here. When 100% of your reported revenue is cyclical and your net margin is 2.4%, even a modest demand miss can hit earnings hard.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings margin hold
Gross margin just reached 12.7%. If that slips while revenue remains soft, the recovery argument weakens fast.
risk
consumer financing pressure
RV and boat demand lives or dies on affordability. High rates are the quiet villain in this story.
trend
estimate revisions after the $0.75 boost
Analysts already raised fiscal 2026 earnings estimates by $0.75. The next move matters more than the last one.
metric
institutional selling streak
Two straight quarters of net selling tells you the big holders are still cautious even after the stock rebound.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the next year. In human-speak: they think the rebound still has legs.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not chaos either. You are buying a normal amount of risk for a cyclical name.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming either way. The fundamental recovery story matters more than pattern-reading here.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means the quarter can surprise you in both directions. That is what thin margins and cyclical demand tend to do.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 102 buyers vs. 138 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 28.6M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$16
$60
$45
current price
$38
target midpoint · 15% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+80% · 18% ann'l return)
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