Start here if you're new
what it is
West Fraser turns trees into lumber, panels, pulp, newsprint, and wood chips across about 50 facilities.
how it gets paid
Last year West Fraser Timber made $5.5B in revenue. Lumber was the main engine at $2.6B, or 47% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 11.5% last year. Fourth-quarter sales were $1.165 billion, down from $1.31 billion in the september period, reflecting continued weakness in new home construction and repair and remodeling.
what just happened
West Fraser posted a $3.24 loss per share, worse than the $1.45 loss analysts expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
17.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
West Fraser turns trees into lumber, panels, pulp, newsprint, and wood chips across about 50 facilities.
West Fraser runs about 50 facilities across Canada, the U.S., and Europe. That gives you scale when one mill or one region sputters. Lumber is 47% of 2025 sales, so the business is not pretending to be diversified.
How they make money
$5.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -11.5% last year
Lumber
$2.6B
Panels
$1.0B
Pulp
$0.8B
Newsprint
$0.6B
Wood chips and other
$0.5B
The products that matter
commodity wood products
Lumber
core end-market exposure
This is the line most tied to the $4.68B North American revenue base, and that base fell 11.5% from last year when housing demand softened.
housing-linked
engineered building materials
Engineered Wood & Panels
value-added, still cyclical
Panels and engineered products can look steadier than raw lumber, but the snapshot still shows 85% of total sales tied to the same North American construction backdrop.
same cycle
pulp and paper operations
Pulp, Paper & Bioproducts
diversifier, not the story
This adds some offset, but not enough to hide a quarter with $712M in restructuring and impairment charges. The main story is still building-products demand.
partial offset
Key numbers
$5.5B
annual revenue
This is the size of the machine. A 10% swing is about $550M.
21.0%
operating margin
Every $100 of sales left $21 after operating costs. That is decent in a cyclic business.
2.1%
dividend yield
You get a small cash check while you wait. That matters when the stock trades on lumber prices.
$82
target price
That is $15.7 above $66.3, or about 24% upside. The market is not calling this broken.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $300M (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 11.0% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WFG 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,170.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
West Fraser posted a $3.24 loss per share, worse than the $1.45 loss analysts expected.
Permanent closures and curtailments at higher-cost lumber operations hit the quarter. That is the company paying to shrink before it grows.
$5.5B
revenue
-$3.24
eps
21.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The $3.24 loss is the number that matters because it shows the turnaround is still costing money.
-
west fraser timber closed 2025 with another difficult quarter.fourth-quarter sales were $1.165 billion, down from $1.31 billion in the september period, reflecting continued weakness in new home construction and repair and remodeling. core pricing and shipment trends remained pressured, particularly in spruce-pine-fir (spf) lumber and oriented strand board (osb). the company reported a large gaap loss, primarily due to $712 million of pre-tax restructuring and impairment charges.
-
these costs were tied to the permanent closure and curtailment of certain higher-cost lumber operations, as management aligned capacity with weaker demand and a lower pricing environment.
-
excluding these items, the quarterly loss was about $3.24 per share.
-
this year is likely to remain transitional.
-
our estimates call for roughly $5.7 billion in sales and a modest full-year loss.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is north american lumber and housing weakness.
med
85% of revenue is tied to the same regional cycle
North America accounts for $4.68B of the company's $5.5B revenue base. That means the stock is heavily exposed to U.S. and Canadian construction demand, repair activity, and wood-product pricing.
That exposure already showed up in the numbers: total revenue fell 11.5% from last year.
med
restructuring can fix cost, not demand
West Fraser took $712M in restructuring and impairment charges tied to closing or curtailing higher-cost lumber operations. Management can remove weak capacity, but it cannot force prices higher.
If demand stays soft, more cost action may follow and earnings quality stays messy even if reported losses narrow.
med
the recovery is still mostly a forecast
Analysts look for $3.85 in EPS by FY2027 and $10B of revenue by FY2029. Those numbers imply a major improvement from today's $5.5B revenue base and recent losses.
If the housing cycle stays weak, the valuation never gets the rebound it is quietly waiting for.
A prolonged housing slowdown pressures the core $4.68B North American revenue base directly. That is the risk picture in one sentence.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
North America revenue trend
$4.68B is the number carrying this story. If that base keeps shrinking, the recovery case stays theoretical.
calendar
next earnings date
April 22, 2026 is the next check-in. You want to see whether quarterly sales can improve from $1.165B without another charge-heavy headline.
trend
institutional flow
Net selling has lasted two straight quarters. If that flips, sentiment may be improving before the income statement fully does.
risk
restructuring aftershocks
$712M in charges is not a rounding error. Watch for whether the closures stay a one-time reset or become a recurring feature of weak pricing.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
A 5 / 100 predictability score means earnings are highly cyclical. In human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to produce smooth quarters.
risk rank
3
Risk rank 3 means the balance sheet is acceptable even if the business is choppy. Safer than the earnings profile, not safe from the cycle.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 49 buyers vs. 69 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 36.6M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$55
$108
$66
current price
$82
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $110 (+65% · 15% ann'l return)
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