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what it is
Werner moves freight with 7,450 trucks and about 28,665 trailers across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
how it gets paid
Last year Wern made $2.9B in revenue. Dedicated transportation was the main engine at $0.95B, or 33% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.9% last year. Revenue was $2.2B, and the headline growth looked huge at +190% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Werner missed by $0.09 per share after reporting $0.05 versus $0.14 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
363.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Werner moves freight with 7,450 trucks and about 28,665 trailers across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Werner runs 7,450 trucks and 28,665 trailers. Scale (more rigs and routes) → more lanes covered → so your freight moves without building your own fleet. The FirstFleet deal made Werner the fifth-largest dedicated carrier, and dedicated (longer contracts, steadier work) beats spot freight (load-by-load pricing) when rates wobble.
How they make money
$2.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.9% last year
Dedicated transportation
$0.95B
+6.0%
Dry van truckload
$0.80B
4.0%
Temperature-controlled freight
$0.35B
+2.0%
Flatbed freight
$0.30B
3.0%
Logistics and other
$0.50B
+1.0%
The products that matter
core freight hauling
Truckload Transportation
$2.9B revenue · 100% of sales
it is the entire business. all $2.9B of revenue ultimately depends on freight volumes, pricing, and network utilization holding up.
100% of revenue
dedicated fleet contracts
Dedicated Services
$615M added revenue
firstfleet added $615M of annual revenue and pushed werner to the fifth-largest dedicated carrier nationally. that matters because dedicated contracts are usually steadier than spot freight.
acquired scale
integration and cost control
Network & Logistics
$18M annual savings target
management is aiming for $18M in annual cost savings within two years. with a 2.6% net margin, that target is not cosmetic. it is part of the earnings case.
margin lever
Key numbers
$36.38
share price
You are paying 9% more than the $33 target, so the market has already made a bet.
363.8x
trailing P/E
That is an absurd multiple for trucking, and the ratio gets weirder when trailing EPS is -$1.36.
$725M
long debt
Debt equals 25% of capital, so the balance sheet is not stretched, but it is also not free.
0.4%
operating margin
Werner keeps 40 cents of operating profit per $100 of sales, which disappears fast if fuel or wages jump.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $725M (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.9% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WERN 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,710.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Werner missed by $0.09 per share after reporting $0.05 versus $0.14 expected.
Revenue was $2.2B, and the headline growth looked huge at +190% vs. prior year. The profit line was weaker, with $0.05 actual EPS versus $0.14 expected.
$2.2B
revenue
$0.05
eps
190.0%
revenue Vs. last year
EPS miss
The $0.09 EPS miss mattered more than the $2.2B revenue print, because $0.05 against $0.14 says profits still lag expectations.
-
werner enterprises’ stock price has benefited from the broader trucking industry rally.
-
the shares are up 42% since our mid-november review.investors have likely bid up the shares on the strength of a solid showing to close out 2025 and the likelihood of strained capacity this year.
-
the acquisition of firstfleet should prove fruitful.werner acquired tennessee-based firstfleet for $245 million in cash, adding 2,400 tractors and $615 million in annual revenue.
-
the deal makes werner the fifth-largest dedicated carrier nationally, expanding the highermargin dedicated fleet by roughly 50%.management expects immediate earnings accretion with $18 million in annual realized within two years through greater network density and purchasing power. the trucker’s december-quarter results were probably more encouraging than those of most of its peer group. our call of $0.14 a share reflects what we believe was a favorable revenue mix and benefits from operational efficiency. dedicated fleet startups that pressured third-quarter margins probably reached productivity, eliminating about $2 million in quarterly startup costs by october. one-way production recovered as driver rebalancing wound down and the fleet became more focused on profitable lanes. peak season volumes from discount retail customers also held up well, while technology-driven cost savings offered further margin relief.
-
the recovery prospects here are compelling.projected capacity constraint related to greater federal regulatory enforcement is set to enable meaningful contract rate increases during bid seasons. what’s more, the firstfleet integration is expected to deliver between $15 million to $20 million in, while expanding presence in resilient grocery and bakery markets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
this story lives or dies on whether firstfleet makes werner steadier, not just bigger. with a 2.6% full-year net margin and a -2.7% quarterly margin, small misses do not stay small for long.
high
integration risk
werner paid $245M in cash for firstfleet and is counting on immediate earnings accretion plus $18M in annual savings within two years.
if that timeline slips, you are left with more revenue and the same old margin problem wearing a bigger uniform.
high
freight demand and pricing risk
all $2.9B of revenue comes from freight. if bid season disappoints or trucking demand weakens, the whole income statement feels it.
last quarter already showed the downside: $752M of revenue produced a $0.34 per-share loss.
med
thin-margin execution risk
a 2.6% net margin means small misses in costs, utilization, or pricing do outsized damage to earnings.
when you keep roughly 3 cents on the dollar, there is not much room for error.
med
cost and compliance risk
tighter federal enforcement can remove weak competitors, which helps industry pricing, but it also raises compliance costs and can disrupt operations.
with $725M of long-term debt and modest profitability, extra cost pressure matters quickly.
between the freight cycle, the firstfleet integration, and a margin profile that already slipped negative in the latest quarter, the recovery case needs proof fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the $18M savings target
management put a number on the firstfleet thesis. if those savings arrive within two years, the deal starts earning its keep.
trend
contract rate improvement
the recovery story needs better bid-season pricing. if rates do not improve, the 42% rally starts looking early.
risk
quarterly margin direction
a business with a 2.6% full-year margin just posted -2.7% for the quarter. you want that line back above zero and staying there.
calendar
the next few earnings reports
this is where management has to prove firstfleet is accretive, not just larger. one quarter of hope is a story. a few quarters of proof is a thesis.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this is more likely to lag than lead over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not especially safe, not a bunker stock either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the recent bounce exists, but the broader setup still does not show much institutional conviction.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings can swing hard from quarter to quarter. that matters more when your margins already live close to the floor.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 100 buyers vs. 134 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 59.3M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$21
$45
$36
current price
$33
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+50% · 12% ann'l return)
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