Start here if you're new
what it is
Wendy's sells burgers through 7,240 restaurants, but most of the money comes from franchisees paying to use the brand.
how it gets paid
Last year S made $2.2B in revenue. Company-operated restaurant sales was the main engine at $1.33B, or 60% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.1% last year. To be fair, few investors expected a quick rebound in demand across wendy's base of more than 7,350 global units.
what just happened
The market focused on a $0.14 vs. $0.21 earnings miss, even as SEC data showed a much bigger revenue figure in the latest quarter.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
7.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
7.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.4% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Wendy's sells burgers through 7,240 restaurants, but most of the money comes from franchisees paying to use the brand.
Wendy's has 7,240 restaurants in 31 countries, but only 381 are company owned. That means franchising → other people build and run the stores → you get a lighter cost base and steadier fees. When you pick a familiar burger chain off the highway, scale does the selling before the menu does.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.1% last year
Company-operated restaurant sales
$1.33B
Franchise royalty revenue
$0.49B
Advertising funds revenue
$0.23B
Rental income
$0.11B
Franchise fees and other
$0.04B
The products that matter
operates its own restaurants
Company Restaurants
$2.2B · -3.1%
this $2.2B segment is the larger revenue base, but it also takes the first hit when customers cut back on dining out.
core revenue base
collects fees from franchisees
Franchise Revenue
$660M · 30% of revenue
this $660M stream makes up 30% of revenue and is strategically important because it carries less direct operating exposure than company stores.
asset-lighter stream
Key numbers
7.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. Wendy's trades below many consumer brands because growth is barely there.
7.8%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders as a percent of stock price → the payout looks huge because the stock got cheap.
$2.3B
long-term debt
Debt → money owed over many years → at 61% of capital, it limits how much room management has to be wrong.
24.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → the franchise model still throws off solid economics.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $2.3B (61% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WEN 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,050.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The market focused on a $0.14 vs. $0.21 earnings miss, even as SEC data showed a much bigger revenue figure in the latest quarter.
Consensus data shows the last report missed by 33.3%. SEC figures also show latest-quarter revenue of $1.6B and EPS of $0.71, so you should read the print as messy, but the bigger picture is simple: annual revenue still fell 3.1% to $2.2B.
$1.6B
revenue
$0.14
eps
33.3%
surprise
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 33.3% earnings miss versus estimates, because cheap stocks stay cheap when the turnaround misses the easy bar.
-
results at wendy's continue to languish.in mid-january the company celebrtated its one-year anniversary with ceo kirk tanner leading operations.
-
yet, since the former pepsico executive has been in place, the stock has lost more than half of its value.to be fair, few investors expected a quick rebound in demand across wendy's base of more than 7,350 global units.
-
still, after inheriting a company that had positive growth in comparable sales in 2023 (3.7%) and 2024 (1.4%), the key measure of demand is likely to have fallen 2% to 3% in 2025.
-
even amid weakening unit volumes, though, wendy's has stepped-up its expansion efforts.
-
in fact, we forecast the 2025 store count reached 7,400, compared to 7,240 in both 2023 and 2024.even though costly, u.s.-focused corporate store growth is trending upward, improved international expansion from franchised units likely implies some margin enhancement.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is project fresh failing to turn flat 2026 sales into actual growth.
high
project fresh doesn't move the numbers
the turnaround has to do more than refresh the brand. management is already guiding to flat sales in 2026, so the burden of proof is not hypothetical.
if sales stay flat while company restaurant revenue remains under pressure, the stock keeps looking cheap for a reason.
med
the ceo search drags on
wendy's is still operating with an interim CEO. that's manageable for a steady business, but this is not being valued like a steady business.
a slow search or weak hire could delay strategy decisions just when execution needs to tighten.
med
consumer spending weakens further
the $2.2B company-restaurant segment is directly exposed to traffic and ticket pressure. when consumers trade down or stay home, this is where it shows up first.
another step down after the current -3.1% decline would make the franchise mix look less like a cushion and more like a partial offset.
med
debt and dividend start competing for attention
a 7.05% yield attracts income investors, but the company also carries $2.3B in long-term debt, equal to 61% of capital.
if operations stay soft, that yield stops reading as a feature and starts reading as a question.
if the turnaround stalls, you are left with a flat sales outlook, a $2.3B debt load, and a market that will keep asking whether the 7.05% yield is reward or warning.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
q1 2026 revenue versus $523M
the next quarter is the first clean check on whether project fresh is changing anything. if revenue misses the $523M expectation, patience gets thinner.
calendar
permanent ceo appointment
an interim setup works for a few months. it does not work forever when the entire story depends on execution.
trend
company restaurant sales after -3.1%
this is the larger revenue engine at $2.2B. if the decline persists, the business mix stays heavier and less forgiving.
risk
whether the yield remains a feature
7.05% gets attention. paired with $2.3B in debt, it also deserves scrutiny. income stories can turn into balance-sheet stories fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical risk for a public stock — not especially safe, not especially chaotic.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not offering a clear rescue signal. the fundamentals still need to do the work.
earnings predictability
75 / 100
the business is fairly predictable. that helps, but predictable mediocre numbers are still mediocre numbers.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 201 buyers vs. 192 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$17
$8
current price
$12
target midpoint · +56% from current · 3-5yr high: $18 (+135% · 28% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive