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what it is
WEC Energy Group sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses across the Midwest.
how it gets paid
Last year Wec Energy made $9.8B in revenue. electric residential was the main engine at $3.82B, or 39% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 14.0% last year. Quarterly revenue rose more than 11% on rate base growth.
what just happened
Fourth-quarter EPS of $1.42 beat the $1.39 estimate, and full-year adjusted EPS reached $5.28.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
21.9x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
WEC Energy Group sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses across the Midwest.
This is a monopoly with paperwork. WEC serves 1.6 million electric customers and 2.9 million gas customers, and your alternative is usually no alternative at all. State-approved rates (rate base growth → a bigger asset base regulators let it earn on → steadier profit) helped support a 22.9% operating margin.
How they make money
$9.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +14.0% last year
electric residential
$3.82B
electric small commercial & industrial
$3.14B
electric large commercial & industrial
$2.06B
electric other
$0.78B
The products that matter
regulated electric, gas, and steam delivery
Regulated Utilities
$9.8B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire $9.8B business. that's good for predictability and bad for diversification if regulation turns less friendly.
100% of revenue
rate-base expansion through grid spending
Capital Plan Through 2030
$37.5B planned investment
this is not a product. it's the investment thesis. management is trying to turn a $37.5B build cycle into steady earnings growth.
the growth engine
regulated earnings path for next year
FY2026 EPS Outlook
$5.51–$5.61 guidance range
for a utility with 100/100 predictability, a 10-cent guidance band matters. it tells you management thinks the machine is still running on schedule.
execution check
Key numbers
100/100
price stability
That score says the stock usually behaves like a utility should: boring in the market, which is a feature when panic hits.
21.9x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how many dollars investors pay for $1 of earnings → so what: you are paying a premium for steadiness.
$18.5B
long-term debt
Debt funds the buildout, but it also means higher rates can eat into returns if regulators do not keep pace.
3.2%
dividend yield
You get paid to wait, but the income only looks great if you do not overpay for the stock first.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $18.5B (33% of capital)
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in WEC 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,150.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Fourth-quarter EPS of $1.42 beat the $1.39 estimate, and full-year adjusted EPS reached $5.28.
Quarterly revenue rose more than 11% on rate base growth, favorable weather, and commercial and industrial demand. Annual revenue reached $9.8B, up 14.0% vs. prior year.
$7.3B
quarterly revenue
$1.42
eps
2.16%
surprise
the number that mattered
$5.28 in full-year adjusted EPS matters because it keeps WEC on track toward the $5.60 2026 estimate and supports the dividend.
-
wec energy group closed out 2025 with another year of steady execution.
-
fourth-quarter earnings of $1.42 per share topped expectations, and full-year adjusted earnings came in at $5.28, at the high end of management’s guidance.
-
revenue rose more than 11% in the quarter, supported by rate base growth, favorable weather, and continued strength in commercial demand.management reaffirmed its 2026 earnings outlook of $5.51-$5.61 per share, and we continue to look for roughly $5.60 this year.
-
the company also lifted its dividend by 6.7%, marking the 23rd-consecutive year of dividend growth.
-
the long-term growth profile continues to expand.wec now outlines a $37.5 billion capital plan through 2030, up from prior levels, supported by accelerating electric demand tied to data center development along the i-94 corridor. management increased its five-year load forecast to 3.9 gigawatts, reflecting additional commitments from microsoft and vantage data centers. microsoft alone has expanded its footprint, prompting a $1-billion addition to the capital plan.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is regulatory pushback on the $37.5B capital plan.
med
rate case friction
WEC is a regulated utility. that is the moat and the constraint. if commissions push back on customer rate increases, the returns on new investment get squeezed.
that matters because the planned $37.5B buildout is the growth engine, not a side project.
med
execution on a very large build cycle
the company wants to deploy $37.5B through 2030 while carrying $18.5B of long-term debt. delays, cost overruns, or weaker demand assumptions would make the earnings path look less automatic.
if execution slips, the premium valuation attached to 100/100 predictability loses some of its foundation.
low
valuation risk disguised as safety
21.9x trailing earnings and a stock price near the top of the $92–$117 range leave less room for disappointment. utilities do not have to be expensive forever just because they feel safe today.
when a low-volatility stock derates, it usually looks boring on the way down too.
all three risks hit the same pressure point: a business generating $9.8B in revenue is being valued on the assumption that the spending plan lands cleanly and the regulatory compact stays intact.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
rate decisions tied to the capital plan
the market is underwriting $37.5B of spending through 2030. if regulators get less generous, the growth script changes fast.
metric
FY2026 EPS guidance
track whether results stay inside the $5.51–$5.61 range. for a 100/100 predictability stock, small misses matter.
trend
return on capital
6.5% is decent for a regulated utility, but it does not leave much room for wasted spending. you want to see efficiency hold while the buildout ramps.
calendar
the next dividend increase
the 23-year dividend growth streak is part of the appeal. if management gets more cautious there, take the hint.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this may lag from here even if the business stays stable.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower downside risk than almost any stock in the market.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the business is calm, the tape is less enthusiastic.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management tends to hit the script. that is rare, and it is a big reason investors own utilities like this.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 517 buyers vs. 425 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$92
$129
$116
current price
$111
target midpoint · 4% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+35% · 10% ann'l return)
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