Waste Connections

Waste Connections trades at 38.2 times earnings for the privilege of hauling your trash.

If you own WCN, you own a steady trash business priced like a luxury good.

wcn

energy large cap updated feb 13, 2026
$168.10
market cap ~$43B · 52-week range $162–$176
xvary composite: 76 / 100 · average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Waste Connections picks up garbage, moves it, buries it, and recycles part of it for more than two million customers.
how it gets paid
Last year Waste Connections made $9.5B in revenue. solid waste collection was the main engine at $5.8B, or 61% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.1% last year. The company should benefit from continued pricing retention and incremental gains from route-optimization initiatives.
what just happened
Latest reported EPS was $1.01, missing the $1.24 estimate by 18.55%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
38.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 76/100 — average
What they do
Waste Connections picks up garbage, moves it, buries it, and recycles part of it for more than two million customers.
Trash is local, ugly, and hard to copy. Waste Connections runs 364 collection operations, 113 active landfills, and 163 transfer stations across 44 states and six Canadian provinces. That network is scale (lots of routes and dump sites) → cheaper service density → so what: your trash still gets picked up, and rivals need years and permits to catch up.
energy large-cap waste-hauler pricing-power defensive
How they make money
$9.5B annual revenue · their business grew +6.1% last year
solid waste collection
$5.8B
+6.0%
landfill disposal
$2.0B
+6.0%
transfer services
$0.9B
+6.0%
recycling
$0.6B
+4.0%
intermodal and other
$0.2B
7.9%
The products that matter
collection, transfer, disposal, recycling
Solid Waste Services
$9.5B revenue · +6.1% growth
it's the whole $9.5B engine, and it converted that revenue into a 13.2% net margin last year. boring business. useful adjective. it means customers keep paying.
core
Key numbers
38.2x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each $1 of profit → so what: you are paying a premium for stability, not cheapness.
$9.5B
annual revenue
That revenue base grew 6.1% vs. prior year, which tells you this is a mature compounder, not a hypergrowth story.
18.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: trash hauling is messy, but this one keeps a healthy slice.
$8.6B
long-term debt
Debt is only 17% of capital, so the balance sheet looks controlled even with a large absolute dollar figure.
Financial health
A
strength
  • balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
  • risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
  • price stability 100 / 100
  • long-term debt $8.6B (17% of capital)
  • net profit margin 13.0% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in WCN 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,010.

The index would have given you $13,880.

same period. same starting point. WCN trailed the market by $870.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest reported EPS was $1.01, missing the $1.24 estimate by 18.55%.
That miss clashes with a business that still posted $9.5B in annual revenue, up 6.1% vs. prior year. The quiet part is simple: the company is steady, but the stock price wants cleaner execution than steady.
$7.1B
revenue
$3.16
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 18.55% EPS miss matters most because premium stocks trading at 38.2x earnings usually get punished when execution slips.
source: company earnings report, 2026

Get this snapshot in your inbox

This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.

weekly updates earnings alerts plain english no spam
What could go wrong

the #1 risk is commercial and industrial volume weakness.

∘
med
commercial and industrial volume softness
Waste collection feels defensive because households still need pickup. Commercial and industrial customers are less forgiving. In a downturn, container pulls and disposal volumes can weaken even if the stock still looks stable.
impact: this risk touches the same $9.5B revenue base the market values at 38.2x earnings.
∘
med
landfill and environmental compliance costs
Part of the moat is controlled disposal access. That's good until permitting, remediation, or tighter environmental rules raise the cost of keeping those assets productive. Defensive does not mean regulation-free.
impact: higher compliance costs would pressure margins that ran at 13.2% over the last year and 11.6% last quarter.
∘
med
route optimization and acquisition integration falling short
The page repeatedly points to route optimization, digitization, and contributions from past acquisitions. That's fine. It also means part of the next leg of earnings growth depends on management execution rather than simple volume recovery.
impact: if those initiatives disappoint, a 0.9% yield will not offset much multiple compression from 38.2x.
If pricing retention slips while volumes soften, pressure runs straight through a $9.5B revenue base priced like a premium compounder.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
margin
whether net margin moves back toward 13.2%
Last quarter came in at 11.6%. The annual number is 13.2%. That gap tells you whether pricing and route efficiency are offsetting cost pressure.
earnings
the next quarterly print
You want to see whether revenue growth stays around the mid-single-digit range and whether EPS stops sliding from a year ago.
operations
route optimization progress
Management keeps pointing to automation, digitization, and route efficiency. If that work is real, it should show up in cleaner margins before it shows up in the marketing language.
risk
commercial and industrial volume trends
This is where a "defensive" stock gets tested. If volumes weaken, the market will have to decide how much safety is worth at 38.2x earnings.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving normally, not one sending a strong near-term signal.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower risk of permanent damage than almost any stock in the market.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming anything dramatic. welcome to defensive compounders.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
The stock is stable. The earnings line is less so. That's an unusual mix, and it matters when you are paying a premium multiple.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 334 buyers vs. 335 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$152 $278
$168 current price
$215 target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $230 (+35% · 9% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

Want the deeper analysis?

The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.

see plans from $5/mo
The deep dive
WCN
xvary deep dive
wcn
the full analysis is in the works.
what you'll get
dcf valuation model
bull / base / bear scenarios
competitive moat breakdown
quarterly earnings tracker
operating model projections
risk matrix with kill criteria
original price target + conviction
updated with every earnings
free · no spam · you'll be first to read it