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what it is
Wayfair sells furniture and home goods online, then tries to make money delivering your couch without losing money on the box.
how it gets paid
Last year Wayfair made $12.5B in revenue. United States was the main engine at $11.0B, or 88% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.1% last year. Gross margin near 30.3% matters because gross margin → money left after product costs → the cushion Wayfair needs when operating margin is only 0.1%.
what just happened
Wayfair posted Q4 revenue of $3.3B and EPS of $0.85, beating the $0.45 consensus estimate.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
51.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
Wayfair sells furniture and home goods online, then tries to make money delivering your couch without losing money on the box.
Wayfair wins on selection and reach. U.S. operations were 88% of 2024 revenue, so scale matters when you are moving bulky items people hate returning. Gross margin was 30.2% in 2025, which means gross margin → money left after product costs → enough room to pay for shipping, ads, and service if management stays disciplined.
How they make money
$12.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.1% last year
United States
$11.0B
+5.1%
Canada
$0.5B
flat
United Kingdom
$0.5B
flat
Germany
$0.5B
flat
The products that matter
primary U.S. e-commerce storefront
Wayfair.com
$11.0B · 88% of disclosed segment revenue
it generated $11.0B in sales last year, making the core site the business rather than just a traffic source.
core revenue engine
co-branded purchase financing
Citi Wayfair Mastercard
up to $20k credit lines
it offers credit lines up to $20k to help customers finance large-ticket purchases, which matters when you sell couches instead of phone cases.
basket support
Key numbers
0.1%
operating margin
This is the whole story. Wayfair finally got profitable, but one bad quarter can erase a margin this thin.
$12.5B
annual revenue
You are looking at a huge sales base, which is why tiny margin improvements can create outsized earnings changes.
51.1x
trailing p/e
The market is pricing Wayfair like profits are real and durable, not like a retailer still proving it can earn through a cycle.
$3.6B
long-term debt
Debt limits flexibility. If demand softens, management has less room to absorb mistakes.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $3.6B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.3% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 35% — $0.35 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — return on equity looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in W 3 years ago → it's now worth $26,600.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Wayfair posted Q4 revenue of $3.3B and EPS of $0.85, beating the $0.45 consensus estimate.
The beat came from better cost control and a cleaner online retail backdrop. Gross margin held around 30.3%, which matters more here than flashy top-line growth.
$3.3B
revenue
$0.85
eps
30.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin near 30.3% matters because gross margin → money left after product costs → the cushion Wayfair needs when operating margin is only 0.1%.
-
shares of wayfair have continued their sharp surge higher in price in recent months.
-
the stock has benefited from the company's strong financial performance, greater investor confidence due to cost-cutting and other strategic measures undertaken by management, positive analyst sentiment, and favorable industry shifts such as a pause on furniture tariffs.
-
all of this indicates a more-constructive online retail environment.
-
the company reported favorable operating results for the september quarter, too.
-
the top line advanced roughly 8%, on a year-to-year basis.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is online furniture economics with only a 3.0% net margin.
high
no moat in a comparison-shopping category
there is no moat. customers can compare prices in seconds, and a 30.3% gross margin shrinking to a 3.0% net margin tells you the industry captures most of the value before shareholders do.
persistent pricing pressure can erase already-thin profitability
high
debt plus volatility
Wayfair carries $3.6B of long-term debt, equal to 19% of capital, while its price stability score is just 5 / 100. That is leverage attached to a stock that already moves hard.
if demand slips, balance-sheet flexibility matters fast
med
tariff and import cost pressure
rising import costs would hit a business already running on a 30.3% gross margin. When net margin is only 3.0%, even a modest squeeze matters.
small gross-margin moves can have an outsized effect on earnings
med
customer growth without more spend
active customers reached 21.3M, but the snapshot says revenue per customer is flat. More customers help less if order size and frequency do not improve with them.
growth can look better in customer counts than it does in actual dollars
with 30.3% gross margin, 27 cents of every revenue dollar going to operating expense, and $3.6B in debt, Wayfair does not have much cushion if demand or pricing slips.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings
the last quarter worked because EPS landed at $0.85 versus a $0.13 estimate. the next report needs to show that was not a one-quarter event.
metric
gross margin versus net margin
30.3% gross margin sounds fine until you remember net margin is 3.0%. watch whether operating discipline keeps that gap from widening again.
risk
import cost pressure
this is a bulky-goods retailer. any tariff or freight pressure lands on a margin structure that already leaves very little for shareholders.
trend
debt management
the company repurchased $56M of convertible notes. you want to see whether that becomes a pattern, because $3.6B of debt is still the bigger story.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, the street still likes the rebound trade.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 5 — real drawdown risk is part of the package here.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but not sending a special signal on its own.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings are hard to forecast here. one clean quarter does not make this a steady business.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 262 buyers vs. 137 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$56
$203
$115
current price
$130
target midpoint · +13% from current · 3-5yr high: $215 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
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