Start here if you're new
what it is
Valvoline runs quick oil-change shops and sells the fluids and chemicals your car keeps consuming.
how it gets paid
Last year Valvoline made $1.7B in revenue. oil change services was the main engine at $0.94B, or 55% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.6% last year. The 11% revenue growth mattered most because it shows store demand is holding up while the company digests a debt-funded acquisition.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $462M, up 11% vs. prior year, even as reported EPS fell into the red.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Valvoline runs quick oil-change shops and sells the fluids and chemicals your car keeps consuming.
Valvoline wins because your car keeps needing maintenance, and speed beats romance. It ran about 2,200 service centers as of 9/30/25, so convenience → a nearby shop when your sticker says you're overdue → repeat visits. Quiet part out loud: oil changes are boring, and boring businesses with 24.5% operating margins tend to get paid.
How they make money
$1.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.6% last year
oil change services
$0.94B
+11.0%
preventive maintenance services
$0.37B
+11.0%
franchise and royalty revenue
$0.17B
+11.0%
lubricants and automotive chemicals
$0.15B
+5.6%
other shop revenue
$0.07B
+5.6%
The products that matter
lubricants and maintenance services
Automotive Lubricants
$1.7B revenue
it's the entire revenue base shown on this page, generating $1.7B last year. When one bucket carries the whole story, every traffic wobble matters more.
core business
acquired service locations
Breeze Autocare Stores
162 net stores added
this is the new growth bet. Valvoline is adding 162 net stores after divesting 45 locations, and it used a $740M loan to do it. More scale helps only if those stores earn their keep fast enough.
debt-funded growth
Key numbers
64%
target upside
The published 18-month target is $49 versus today's $29.84. That's a big gap, which usually means either the stock is cheap or the forecast is drunk.
$740M
new debt
That loan funded the Breeze acquisition. Translation: management bought speed with leverage, so your upside now depends on clean execution.
24.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: this is a very good margin for a maintenance chain.
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money put into the business → so what: Valvoline has been good at turning shop investment into earnings.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- net profit margin 11.1% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in VVV 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,930.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $462M, up 11% vs. prior year, even as reported EPS fell into the red.
Revenue growth stayed solid, but the quarter's -$0.26 EPS shows acquisition and financing noise can bury operating progress. That is the trade: faster expansion versus messier near-term numbers.
$462M
revenue
$0.26
eps
37.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 11% revenue growth mattered most because it shows store demand is holding up while the company digests a debt-funded acquisition.
-
valvoline completed the purchase of breeze autocare on december 1st.
-
to note, the company funded the transaction with a $740 million loan.
-
moreover, valvoline will acquire 162 net stores (after divesting 45 locations) to it’s roster.this ought to be beneficial for top-line prospects, but it may initially pressure margins, due to integration costs, higher depreciation, and interest from financing.
-
fiscal 2025 results were about equal to our expectations. (year ended september 30th).
-
the final fiscal period saw revenues grow 4.2% vs. prior year, to $453.8 million.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is breeze autocare integration funded by a $740M acquisition loan.
med
Breeze Autocare integration
Valvoline is adding 162 net stores after divesting 45 locations. Bigger scale helps only if service volumes, pricing, and operating discipline come with it.
Impact: the deal was funded with a $740M loan, so weak integration would pressure margins and balance-sheet flexibility at the same time.
med
earnings volatility
Earnings predictability is 45/100, and the latest reported quarter showed -$0.26 EPS with a -7.1% net margin. This is not the profile of a business you model on autopilot.
Impact: an 18.8x trailing multiple assumes earnings normalize. If negative quarters keep showing up, that multiple stops looking average and starts looking generous.
med
traffic slowdown
Full-year revenue grew 5.6%, but the final fiscal period grew 4.2% vs. prior year to $453.8M. If customer traffic softens, modest growth stops covering new debt costs.
Impact: this is a $1.7B revenue business with a 9.8% net margin. There is profit here, but not enough to make weaker demand painless.
A larger store base could improve the story. If growth stays around the recent 4.2% pace and quarterly margins stay near or below zero, the $740M loan becomes the entire bear case.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
integration versus debt cost
The stock can handle a $740M loan if acquired stores lift profit fast enough. If they do not, the financing becomes the headline.
metric
margin recovery
Last quarter's net margin was -7.1%. You want to see that move back toward the full-year 9.8% profile.
trend
growth after the deal
Recent full-year revenue growth was 5.6%, while the final fiscal period ran at 4.2% from a year ago. The store deal needs to bend that line up, not just out.
calendar
institutional flow next quarter
Institutions were net sellers for 2 straight quarters. If the next update stays negative, larger investors are telling you the cleanup takes longer.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
Momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has to earn back confidence after the acquisition and the loss quarter.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3. You are not buying a bunker stock, but you are not buying a falling-knife setup either.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3 — the chart is waiting for cleaner fundamentals. It is not front-running the turnaround for you.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
Forecasting this business is harder than average. The recent negative EPS print shows why.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 180 buyers vs. 186 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$27
$71
$30
current price
$49
target midpoint · +64% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+100% · 19% ann'l return)
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