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what it is
VTv Therapeutics is a 23-person biotech trying to turn one lead diabetes pill into a real company.
how it gets paid
Last year Vtv Therapeutics made $0 in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 100.0% last year. The improvement came from smaller quarterly losses, with showing EPS moving from -$1.67 in 4Q23 to -$0.55 in 4Q24.
what just happened
The key takeaway is simple: vTv still has $0 revenue, even after cutting full-year loss per share to about -$3.20 in 2024 from -$9.71 in 2023.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$3.20 fy2024 eps est
$1M fy2024 rev est
1.45 beta
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
vTv Therapeutics is a 23-person biotech trying to turn one lead diabetes pill into a real company.
The moat is not sales today. It is optionality. Cadisegliatin is the lead asset, and vTv says two international registrational studies are being designed for a 2026 start. Clinical stage biotech → no durable customer lock-in yet → so what: your upside depends on trial data and financing, not a proven business model.
How they make money
$0
annual revenue · revenue declined -100.0% last year
The products that matter
Phase 3 diabetes drug
Cadisegliatin (TTP399)
1 Phase 3 asset · primary value driver
This is the entire late-stage story. It is the only Phase 3 asset in the company, and management is aiming at a type 1 diabetes market described here as worth over $25B.
binary catalyst
partnered legacy asset
Azeliragon
license expansion fee still unpaid
This is the secondary asset, but it is not carrying the valuation. The company still reported $0 in trailing 12-month revenue, and the unpaid Newsoara license fee tells you this partner path has not turned into cash yet.
stalled monetization
Key numbers
$0
annual revenue
This matters because it tells you the company is pre-commercial. You are funding a science project, not buying a cash-producing business.
$3.20
2024 EPS est.
Loss per share → money lost for each share outstanding → so what: dilution risk stays on the table until the pipeline pays.
23
employees
A 23-person company with a $131 million market cap is a very concentrated bet on a small pipeline.
1.45
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: expect bigger swings than an index fund.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
C++ — risk rank looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for VTVT right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The key takeaway is simple: vTv still has $0 revenue, even after cutting full-year loss per share to about -$3.20 in 2024 from -$9.71 in 2023.
The improvement came from smaller quarterly losses, with showing EPS moving from -$1.67 in 4Q23 to -$0.55 in 4Q24. But EDGAR still shows annual revenue of $0, so the business got less lossmaking, not commercial.
$0
revenue
$0.55
q4 eps
$3.20
fy2024 eps
the number that mattered
$0 revenue is the number that matters because cost control can buy time, but only a commercial product changes the business model.
source: and EDGAR, 2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is cadisegliatin failing to turn Phase 3 data into an approval path.
med
Phase 3 failure
Cadisegliatin is the only Phase 3 asset in the company. If the SIMPLIFY readout disappoints, the business loses the one program supporting most of the market's value above cash.
With a $131M market cap and $88.9M in cash, the market is assigning roughly $42M of value beyond cash to the pipeline. That can evaporate fast.
med
Cash runway gets shorter if burn rises
The company lost $18.5M last year and still generated $0 in trailing revenue. That is manageable with $88.9M in cash today, but the equation changes quickly if trial costs rise or timelines slip.
No product revenue means new capital would likely come from dilution, a partner payment, or both.
med
Secondary monetization paths are still thin
The Newsoara upfront payment for azeliragon expansion has not been paid. That matters because pre-revenue biotech optionality is more useful when it actually turns into cash.
If cadisegliatin is delayed and partner cash does not arrive, the company goes from being a drug story to being a financing story.
$88.9M in cash buys time, but $0 trailing revenue means time is the asset being consumed.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
clinical calendar
Cadisegliatin Phase 3 top-line data
Management points to 2026 for SIMPLIFY results. That is the event likely to matter more than anything else on this page.
funding
Cash burn versus the $88.9M balance
The last reported annual loss was $18.5M. If that number starts moving up while revenue stays at $0, your dilution risk is rising in real time.
regulatory path
Whether positive data actually leads to an NDA timeline
A good Phase 3 result is step one. The next proof would be a defined submission path, not just encouraging language.
partner traction
Newsoara license fee payment
If that payment finally arrives, it matters because it would represent actual external validation and actual cash, which are not the same thing but are both useful.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
Earnings are hard to model because there is barely an earnings engine yet. In human-speak, analysts should surprise you because the business is still mostly a clinical program.
beta
1.45
Beta measures how much a stock tends to move versus the market. At 1.45, VTVT has historically been more volatile than the index. Not a bunker stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for VTVT is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$34
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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