Start here if you're new
what it is
Vistra sells electricity and gas to 5.0 million customers and owns 43,640 megawatts of power plants across 16 states and D.C.
how it gets paid
Last year Vistra made $17.6B in revenue. retail electricity was the main engine at $7.4B, or 42% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 19.1% last year. Revenue rose 167% vs. prior year, yet last earnings came in at $0.55 versus a $2.77 estimate.
what just happened
Revenue hit $12.8B, but EPS still missed badly.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
76.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Vistra sells electricity and gas to 5.0 million customers and owns 43,640 megawatts of power plants across 16 states and D.C.
Vistra wins because it controls both the customer bill and the power behind the wall. It serves 5.0 million customers and owns 43,640 megawatts of generation, which means more ways to make money when power gets scarce. Vertical integration (owning supply and distribution) → fewer middlemen → so what: you get a business that can capture value from both retail demand and power price spikes.
How they make money
$17.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +19.1% last year
retail electricity
$7.4B
wholesale power generation
$5.1B
commercial and industrial supply
$2.6B
natural gas retail
$1.6B
other energy services
$0.9B
The products that matter
sells electricity to end customers
Retail Electricity
$15.0B · 85% of sales
it's the main event: $15.0B of revenue inside a $17.6B company, which means your thesis lives or dies with pricing, volumes, and hedging discipline in retail power.
85% of sales
ancillary and other energy services
Services & Other
$1.8B · secondary
this piece brought in $1.8B. useful, but still far too small to offset a serious stumble in the $15.0B retail electricity business.
supporting segment
contracted nuclear and gas-backed capacity
contracted generation
3.8 GW nuclear · 60% gas utilization
the growth angle is visible here: 3.8 gigawatts of contracted nuclear capacity and a natural gas fleet running at 60% utilization. if power demand holds, those assets matter more than the segment labels suggest.
capacity story
Key numbers
$30B
2029 revenue goal
That goal is up from $17.6B today, or about 70.5% higher, so you are buying management's expansion plan as much as the current business.
76.1x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: this is a rich price for a utility.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: Vistra is good at turning big infrastructure into earnings.
$196
18-month target
That is 18% above $165.99, which means even the near-term upside is not huge compared with the stock's $107 to $285 range.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $15.8B (22% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.4% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 29% — $0.29 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in VST 3 years ago → it's now worth $81,370.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $12.8B, but EPS still missed badly.
Revenue rose 167% vs. prior year, yet last earnings came in at $0.55 versus a $2.77 estimate. That is the quiet part: huge sales growth does not guarantee clean earnings here.
$12.8B
revenue
$0.55
eps
10.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 80.14% EPS miss matters most because it tells you this stock trades on expectations, and expectations just got punched in the face.
-
vistra continues to seek expansion.the late-2025 acquisition of seven natural gas-generation facilities from lotus infrastructure partners added a total of 2,600 megawatts to capacity. moreover, these assets were located across regions where peak demand is significant, including pjm (the grid operator for 13 states in the u.s.), as well as in new york, and california. recently, the company agreed to purchase cogentrix energy for $4.0 billion (composed of $2.3 billion in cash, $900 million in vst shares, the assumption of $1.5 billion in debt, minus $700 million in estimated tax credits).
-
the deal would add nearly 5,500 megawatts to capacity.
-
there are a few catalysts.
-
the biggest is long-term contracting of nuclear energy.the company has contracted 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity through various power purchase agreements, including one with meta platforms covering 2.2 gigawatts and another with amazon web services totaling 1.2 gigawatts. the impact of data centers on tightening supply/demand relationships will start to materially impact operations. with data center development expected to be especially robust in pjm and ercot (grid operator in texas), the company is apt to experience elevated utilization rates across its assets there. following the expected close of the cogentrix deal, vistra’s gas-generation assets will total 26 gigawatts of capacity.
-
the company’s natural gas fleet operates at a utilization rate of 60%, which ought to accelerate along with rising demand.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top risk is retail electricity pricing and regulatory execution across a generation-backed power book.
high
retail concentration
Retail Electricity is $15.0B of $17.6B in revenue. when 85% of sales come from one line of business, pricing mistakes and customer-volume swings stop being small problems.
exposes 85% of revenue to retail power economics
high
regulatory and market-design risk
Vistra operates across 16 states and the district of columbia. rule changes on retail power, generation, or emissions can hit margins without asking management for permission first.
pressures the 14.2% net margin that supports the story
med
capacity expansion execution
late-2025 acquisitions added 2,600 megawatts, and another deal would add nearly 5,500 megawatts more. expansion is the bull case, but more assets also mean more integration work and more capital at risk.
2,600 MW already added, nearly 5,500 MW still part of the story
med
balance-sheet and earnings volatility
the balance sheet is B+, not fortress-grade, and long-term debt sits at $15.8B. pair that with a 5/100 earnings predictability score and you get less room for a bad stretch than the 3-year return chart might suggest.
$15.8B of debt sits on top of already lumpy earnings
when 85% of revenue comes from retail electricity and the company carries $15.8B of long-term debt, a weak pricing or regulatory stretch hits both earnings and flexibility at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether the $8.70 EPS estimate holds
at $166, the stock is about 19.1x forward earnings. if that estimate slips, the "not actually 76x earnings" argument weakens fast.
concentration
the $15.0B retail electricity business
Retail Electricity is 85% of sales. that's the core engine and the core exposure in the same sentence.
contracts + fleet
nuclear contracting and gas utilization
3.8 GW of contracted nuclear capacity and 60% natural gas utilization are the operating numbers worth tracking if you want to know whether demand is translating into cash earnings.
calendar
next earnings report
based on past history, the next quarterly earnings report is expected around may 6, 2026. for a 5/100 predictability stock, dates matter.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts don't see a strong short-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither a bunker stock nor a chaos machine, even if quarterly earnings can still surprise you.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving like a normal stock right now, not sending a special message.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
this is the outlier. future quarters are hard to model cleanly, which helps explain why the valuation debate gets messy fast.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
511 buyers vs. 517 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$107
$285
$166
current price
$196
target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $285 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive