XVARY Composite Score
58
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Viridian develops medicines for thyroid eye disease and other rare autoimmune diseases.
How it gets paid
Last year Viridian Therapeutic made $71M in revenue. Lead TED program was the main engine at $24M, or 34% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 23359.9% last year. The $71M revenue print matters because it is real cash.
What just happened
Viridian posted $71M of revenue and -$2.98 EPS in the latest quarter.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$3.07 fy2024 eps est
$0M fy2024 rev est
N/a operating margin
XVARY composite: 58/100 — below average
What They Do
Viridian develops medicines for thyroid eye disease and other rare autoimmune diseases.
You get 2 global Phase III trials (late-stage human studies) for TED. That is 2 shots at the same disease, versus 1 shot for most small biotechs. With 143 employees, the company is all focus and no bloat.
How They Make Money
$71M
annual revenue · their business grew +23359.9% last year
Lead TED program
$24M
Follow-on TED program
$18M
Autoimmune expansion
$12M
Other collaboration revenue
$17M
The Products That Matter
Lead drug candidate
VRDN-001
2026 FDA decision · central to the $3B story
This is the asset carrying the valuation. If VRDN-001 wins approval in 2026, Viridian gets a real shot at a market where Tepezza already does about $1.7B a year. If it doesn't, the current equity story has very little to hide behind.
the whole thesis
Pipeline follow-on asset
VRDN-008
early pipeline · secondary to VRDN-001
This matters because it is one of the few signs the company wants to be more than a one-drug story. Right now, though, the market is valuing VRDN off the lead program, not the backup plan.
option value
Key Numbers
$71M
annual revenue
You are looking at a biotech with $71M of revenue and no commercial blockbuster yet.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. For every $1 of revenue, Viridian lost $5.13 at the operating line.
$23M
debt load
$23M of long-term debt is tiny next to a $3B market cap, so the real risk is clinical, not leverage.
143
employees
143 employees is a small team for a company chasing multiple Phase III trials.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $23M (1% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Viridian posted $71M of revenue and -$2.98 EPS in the latest quarter.
Revenue came from the filing, not a product launch. The company is still losing money, and Wall Street's trailing EPS sits at -4.6.
$71M
revenue
$2.98
eps
n/a
n/a
latest quarter revenue
The $71M revenue print matters because it is real cash, but it still comes with a -2.98 EPS loss.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is FDA rejection or delay for VRDN-001.
Med
VRDN-001 does not get approved on the expected timeline
This is the obvious one because it is the real one. A $3B company with $0 in product sales has no approved-product cushion if the FDA says no or not yet.
Impact: the current equity case would have to fall back on $71M of collaboration revenue and a much thinner pipeline narrative.
Med
Approval happens, but launch execution disappoints
Viridian has never launched a drug commercially. Beating a product that already generates about $1.7B a year is not just a science problem. It is a sales, access, reimbursement, and physician-adoption problem.
Impact: product revenue could stay far below what a $33.06 stock price is implicitly hoping for.
Med
The stock stays violently headline-driven
A 1.4 beta, a 5 / 100 price stability score, and a $10–$34 52-week range tell you this stock does not need bad fundamentals to have a bad month. It just needs uncertainty.
Impact: even good long-term thesis holders can get punished by near-term volatility.
Med
This remains a one-asset investment case
VRDN-008 may matter later, but right now the page still reads like a single-program story. That concentration can create upside. It can also erase diversification.
Impact: one clinical or regulatory miss can do more damage here than it would at a diversified biotech.
A rejection or major delay would leave a $3B company with $71M of collaboration revenue, $0 in product sales, and very little else for the market to lean on.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Catalyst
2026 FDA decision on VRDN-001
This is the number-one date on the page because it is the number-one driver of the stock. If the answer is yes, the commercial debate begins. If the answer is no, the valuation debate gets ugly fast.
Revenue
Any shift from $0M expected product revenue
The moment analysts start modeling real product sales, the stock stops being a pure regulatory placeholder and starts becoming an operating model.
Competition
How management frames Tepezza versus VRDN-001
Competing against an incumbent doing about $1.7B a year means differentiation has to sound concrete. Better dosing needs to translate into actual physician and payer behavior.
Street view
Whether analyst targets cluster toward $42 or $48
Right now the page shows both. That spread is small in dollars but large in message: approval optimism is intact, while conviction on launch execution is not.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
Earnings predictability: 40 / 100. In human-speak, analysts do not expect a smooth quarterly pattern because one regulatory update can reset the whole model.
risk profile
risk rank 2
Risk rank: 2. On this system, that is safer than 80% of stocks — but that does not erase single-asset biotech risk. It just tells you the balance sheet is less fragile than the chart suggests.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for VRDN is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$33
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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