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what it is
Vontier sells the hardware and software that help gas stations, fleets, repair shops, and traffic systems keep moving.
how it gets paid
Last year Vontier made $3.1B in revenue. fueling equipment was the main engine at $1.02B, or 33% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.2% last year. Core sales were uninspiring, as demand for convenience retail payment technologies, car wash solutions, and fueling aftermarket parts was tempered by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that.
what just happened
Vontier's last reported quarter beat estimates by 11.84%, which is the kind of number you expect from a stock trading richer than 14.0x earnings.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
14.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
24.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Vontier sells the hardware and software that help gas stations, fleets, repair shops, and traffic systems keep moving.
This business sits inside messy real-world workflows where downtime costs you money. Its 25.0% operating margin and 24.0% return on capital say customers keep paying because ripping out fueling gear, fleet systems, or shop tools is painful. Switching costs (changing vendors is expensive and annoying) → customers stay put → Vontier gets paid like a software company in an industrial wrapper.
How they make money
$3.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.2% last year
fueling equipment
$1.02B
fleet management
$0.68B
repair shop tools
$0.62B
payment and workflow software
$0.47B
traffic and environmental systems
$0.31B
The products that matter
recurring software and service revenue
Software and Services
65% of revenue
this is the stabilizer. it accounts for 65% of the company’s $3.1B revenue base, which is why cash flow looks steadier than the top-line growth rate.
core mix
Key numbers
24.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: Vontier turns investment into earnings better than most industrial peers.
14.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with yearly profit → so what: you are not paying a premium price for a company with a 25.0% operating margin.
25.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: every $1 of sales leaves about $0.25 before interest and taxes.
$1.6B
long-term debt
Debt → money the company owes → so what: it is 23% of capital, which is manageable but still big enough to matter if rates stay high.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $1.6B (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.8% — keeps 15 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 45% — $0.45 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in VNT 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,110.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Vontier's last reported quarter beat estimates by 11.84%, which is the kind of number you expect from a stock trading richer than 14.0x earnings.
Consensus says the latest reported quarter came in at $0.85 versus a $0.76 estimate. EDGAR data in your source set shows a much larger latest quarter at $2.3B of revenue and $1.90 EPS, so you should treat the quarter-to-quarter comparison carefully because the datasets do not line up cleanly.
$2.3B
revenue
$1.90
eps
25.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 11.84% earnings beat matters because it shows the business is still outrunning expectations even while the stock acts like nobody asked.
-
vontier’s fortunes continue to improve. (note: the company was slated to release fourth-quarter results shortly after this issue went to press.) vontier posted third-quarter earnings of $0.70 a share, a nickel higher than our estimate and a 17% improvement on the year-ago figure, on a relatively flat top-line comparison.core sales were uninspiring, as demand for convenience retail payment technologies, car wash solutions, and fueling aftermarket parts was tempered by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that impacted the repair solutions division. nevertheless, the operating profit margin widened by 140 basis points, which helped boost the bottom line. as a result, we expect vontier registered 2025 earnings of $2.67, up $0.07 a share from our earlier call. as a reminder, we will start reporting adjusted earnings in 2026, with vontier likely to post healthy top- and bottom-line advances both this year and next.
-
nevertheless, the investment community does not seem enthused.
-
vnt shares have fallen about 14% in value since our early november review, as compared to a relatively flat performance by the s&p 500 index over the same period.
-
the company seems to be putting its spare cash to excellent use.vontier ended the september interim with $433.8 million in cash on hand (up $102.9 million from this time last year), and long-term debt of $1.594 billion (down $597.3 million over the last 12 months). and, we look for strong expected cash flow to be more than sufficient to cover capital expenditures and the dividend payout.
-
vontier stock has slipped a notch in timeliness since our early november review.based on recent price and earnings momentum, the issue now carries a rank of 3, making it a rather uninspiring selection for the coming six to 12 months.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is industrial demand staying soft in retail payment tech, car wash, and fueling aftermarket.
med
flat sales stop looking temporary
Last quarter revenue was $752M, up 0% from a year ago. If those end markets stay soft, the market will keep treating Vontier as a low-growth industrial rather than a recurring-revenue compounder.
The immediate pressure is on valuation. A 14.0x multiple does not get much credit without cleaner top-line growth.
med
tariffs and trade policy hit the cost base
Management already flags tariff and trade exposure. That matters more in a business with 15.9% net margins than in one with software-level profitability.
Higher sourcing costs would pressure margins directly and make flat revenue look worse.
med
debt still matters if the cycle weakens
Long-term debt is $1.594B against $433.8M in cash. That is manageable with a B++ balance sheet, but it does reduce flexibility if demand softens for longer than expected.
The company does not look distressed. It also does not have unlimited room for mistakes.
med
the 65% recurring base erodes
Part of the whole story here is mix quality. If the software and service share slips from 65%, the market has one less reason to believe cash flows deserve a premium.
That would make the business look more cyclical and less predictable at exactly the wrong time.
Flat sales on a 14.0x multiple is manageable. Flat sales plus margin pressure on a business carrying $1.594B of long-term debt is a different story.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
recurring mix staying at 65%
That number is doing a lot of work in the thesis. If it slips, the “steady cash flow” argument gets weaker fast.
trend
revenue moving off +0%
EPS can beat for a while. Revenue cannot stay flat forever if you want multiple expansion.
calendar
next filing on tariff exposure
Read the next annual filing for any harder detail on sourcing, tariffs, and how much cost pressure management can actually pass through.
risk
debt reduction continuing
Debt fell by $597.3M over the last 12 months. If that pace stalls while growth stays muted, balance-sheet improvement stops being a tailwind.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
timeliness 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a clear 6–12 month edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the market middle, not in the bunker and not on the rollercoaster.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — price action is ordinary, which is another way of saying the chart is not doing the selling for you.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
The business is somewhat predictable, not clockwork. Keep your eye on guidance and mix, not just the headline EPS print.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 227 buyers vs. 203 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$28
$62
$37
current price
$45
target midpoint · +21% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+90% · 17% ann'l return)
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