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what it is
Vornado owns and leases office, retail, and apartment properties, mostly in New York City.
how it gets paid
Last year Vornado made $1.8B in revenue. Manhattan office leasing was the main engine at $1.22B, or 68% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.3% last year. Recall that in early 2023, management reduced the quarterly payout from $0.53 per share to $0.375, due to the uncertain domestic economy and weakened demand.
what just happened
One quarter showed ~$1.4B revenue and ~$4.19 EPS— that can be real on a GAAP line and still not match a weak forward earnings path; pair with FFO/normalized REIT metrics when you model.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
8.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
3.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 37/100 — weak
What they do
Vornado owns and leases office, retail, and apartment properties, mostly in New York City.
This is a location business pretending to be a spreadsheet. Vornado controls 30 Manhattan office buildings with 20.1 million square feet and 49 street retail locations with 2.4 million square feet. If you want scale in prime Manhattan, there are only so many doors to knock on, and Vornado already owns a lot of them.
How they make money
$1.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.3% last year
Manhattan office leasing
$1.22B
+1.0%
Street retail leasing
$0.29B
+2.0%
Residential rentals
$0.10B
2.9%
Alexander's ownership income
$0.13B
flat
Other property and fee income
$0.06B
+1.3%
The products that matter
owns and leases properties
new york office, retail and residential portfolio
$1.8B revenue · entire business
it is the entire $1.8B company, and recent 87.5% New York commercial occupancy tells you why leasing matters more than storytelling.
entire business
Key numbers
8.5x
trailing p/e
Jargon: trailing P/E -> price divided by last year's profit -> so what: the stock looks cheap until you see 2026 EPS is estimated at just $0.10.
40.0%
operating margin
Jargon: operating margin -> profit after running the properties -> so what: the buildings can still throw off cash even in a rough market.
87.5%
nyc occupancy
This is the cleanest proof that the office portfolio is improving, up from 86.7% in the prior period.
2.3%
dividend yield
Jargon: dividend yield -> cash payout compared with the stock price -> so what: you are not getting paid much to wait.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- net profit margin 12.2% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 4% — $0.04 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in VNO 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,050.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Quarter revenue ~$1.4B and EPS ~$4.19 need context versus ~$1.8B full-year revenue and tiny forward EPS estimates.
Annual revenue was $1.8B, up 1.3% vs. prior year, so the quarter was unusually distorted versus the prior-year comparison. Quiet part loud: one hot quarter does not erase a weak full-year profit base.
$1.4B
quarter revenue
$4.19
quarter EPS (GAAP)
40.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $1.4B in quarterly revenue because it shows the asset base can still generate cash even while forward earnings estimates fall.
-
vornado has declared a full-year 2025 dividend of $0.74 per share. (the reit is scheduled to release december-period financials in early february.) the distribution will be paid on december 29th to shareholders of record on december 18th, marking the only dividend for the year soon ending.recall that in early 2023, management reduced the quarterly payout from $0.53 per share to $0.375, due to the uncertain domestic economy and weakened demand for office space. in april of 2023, vornado revised its dividend policy whereby the distribution would be determined at the conclusion of the year when its taxable income was calculated.
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meanwhile, operating metrics in the company’s commercial portfolio have improved.
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in the recent third quarter, occupancy in vornado’s commercial segments was 87.5% in new york (up from 86.7% in the prior-year period), 80.7% in themart (compared with 79.7%), and 96.3% in 555 california (versus 94.5% a year ago).
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on the residential side of the business, occupancy dropped from 96.5% at the same point in 2024 to 93.7%.
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moreover, occupancy here declined throughout 2025, a trend that bears watching.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is manhattan office demand staying too soft to lift occupancy and margins.
high
office leasing risk
New York commercial occupancy was 87.5% in the recent third quarter. That means 12.5% of the portfolio still was not leased.
if occupancy stalls here, the recovery thesis loses its main operating proof point
high
margin fragility
Full-year net margin was 1.1%. Last quarter improved to 6.0%, but that still leaves very little room for cost pressure or weaker rents.
a business keeping 1.1 cents of each revenue dollar does not have much cushion
med
residential softness
Residential occupancy fell to 94.5% from 96.5% in 2024. That is a small move on paper and a real drag in a low-growth year.
when revenue grew 1.3%, a two-point occupancy drop matters
med
dividend credibility risk
The full-year 2025 dividend was $0.74 per share, after management cut the quarterly payout in early 2023 from $0.53 to $0.375.
income investors have already seen one reset, so the dividend is not a free source of trust
all $1.8B of revenue depends on New York properties staying occupied, and the current 1.1% net margin leaves little room for a leasing setback.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
new york commercial occupancy
87.5% is the number. Up is good. Flat means the office recovery story is stalling.
risk
residential occupancy drift
94.5% versus 96.5% in 2024 is not catastrophic. It is still the wrong direction.
calendar
next earnings release
1q 2026 earnings are scheduled for 05/04/26. You want proof that occupancy gains are becoming earnings gains.
trend
margin recovery
Watch whether quarterly margin stays closer to 6.0% than the 1.1% full-year level. That gap is the whole story.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — in human-speak, analysts expect this stock to lag most others in the near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle of the pack on risk, not in the bunker and not in the casino.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than the business. Welcome to recovery-stock investing.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings can swing hard from quarter to quarter, which is exactly what thin-margin property stories tend to do.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
176 buyers vs. 186 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$26
$59
$35
current price
$43
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+30% · 9% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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