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what it is
Valley is a regional bank that takes your deposits, makes loans, leases equipment, and sells fee-based financial services.
how it gets paid
Last year Valley National Bancorp made $3.2B in revenue. Commercial lending was the main engine at $1.18B, or ~37% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.7% last year. The number that mattered was $0.69. That is the full-year 2024 EPS estimate.
what just happened
The latest quarter printed on the order of ~$800M revenue (~¼ of the ~$3.2B year) and EPS near $0.68—full-year ~$0.69 EPS is still thin versus prior years.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
13.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
$0.69 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Valley is a regional bank that takes your deposits, makes loans, leases equipment, and sells fee-based financial services.
Valley wins by being the boring bank already wired into daily life. It has 229 branches across four states and 3,732 employees, so your checking account, loan, and local branch are all in one place. Switching banks sounds easy until your payroll, bill pay, mortgage, and business accounts all have to move at once.
How they make money
$3.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.7% last year
commercial lending
$1.18B
commercial real estate lending
$0.86B
consumer banking and mortgages
$0.54B
equipment leasing and asset-based lending
$0.29B
trust, insurance, title, and other fees
$0.33B
The products that matter
takes deposits and makes loans
Retail and commercial banking
~$3.2B consolidated revenue (see table)
The segment bridge sums to the same ~$3.2B top line—retail and commercial banking here means the core deposit-and-loan franchise, not a side project.
core franchise
fee and ancillary banking income
Non-interest income
$300M · est. +12.3%
This ~$300M stream matters because it diversifies the model, but it is still much smaller than the ~$2.0B+ combined commercial + CRE lending lines in the table ($1.18B + $0.86B)—not a separate $1.7B “engine” that conflicts with those rows.
secondary driver
non-core capital allocation
The Garage Venture Fund
$25M investment
The $25M venture-fund stake is real, but it's not why you buy VLY. It's a small strategic bet sitting next to a plain-vanilla banking business.
non-core
Key numbers
$3.2B
annual revenue
That is the scale of the franchise today, and it fell 3.7% vs. prior year, so the top line is still moving the wrong way.
$0.69
2024 EPS
That is the profit per share estimate for 2024, down from $0.95 in 2023 and $1.14 in 2022.
3.7%
dividend yield
You are being paid to wait, but the yield only works if earnings stop slipping.
229
branches
Physical footprint still matters for core deposits and local lending—funding costs and credit quality do the real talking.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $3.2B (33% of capital) — same headline dollars as revenue here by coincidence; debt and interest income are not the revenue bridge
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for VLY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue landed around ~$800M (order-of-magnitude vs ~$3.2B FY) and EPS reached $0.68—full-year earnings still look thin.
Ignore triple-digit vs. prior year revenue % on banks unless you have verified the comp quarter (period mix and line-item definitions move the number). The strip’s ~13.4x trailing P/E at ~$11.83 implies TTM EPS near ~$0.88—not the same line as the ~$0.69 FY2024 est. Contrast any quarter with the FY anchor you intend to use.
~$800M
Q revenue (approx.)
~$0.68
eps (q)
$3.2B
FY revenue anchor
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $0.69. That is the full-year 2024 EPS estimate, and it sits far below $0.95 in 2023 and $1.14 in 2022.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is commercial real estate credit stress.
high
Commercial real estate exposure
A regional lender does not get to ignore property cycles. If office, multifamily, or broader commercial real estate weakens, credit costs rise fast.
That would hit the earnings recovery thesis directly and make the below-book valuation look deserved, not cheap.
med
Deposit competition
Valley competes against money-center banks with scale, brand, and funding advantages. JPMorgan's 10% national deposit share is the kind of number regional banks feel.
If funding costs stay high, margin gains can disappear even if loan demand holds up.
med
Balance-sheet leverage
The bank carries $3.2B in long-term debt, equal to 33% of capital. That's manageable. It also means there is less room for mistakes than the word cheap implies.
A weaker operating backdrop can pressure capital flexibility, buybacks, and investor confidence at the same time.
low
Non-core venture investment
The $25M Garage venture-fund investment is small relative to the bank, but it is still a higher-risk asset sitting beside a conservative lending business.
This will not make or break VLY, but it is a reminder that not every capital-allocation decision here is plain vanilla.
The risk picture comes back to two numbers: $432M of quarterly net interest income and $3.2B of long-term debt. If credit stress hits while margins soften, both the earnings story and the valuation discount can get worse together.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
Quarterly net interest income
$432M is the current marker. You want to see that number hold and grow if management's 2026 optimism is real.
risk
Commercial real estate credit trends
Any rise in non-performing loans or provisioning can overpower the improving margin story fast.
calendar
Next earnings report
The next quarter matters more than usual because investors need proof that the 2.9% sequential improvement was not a one-off.
trend
Book value versus stock price
The stock sits below $13.39 book value. If operating numbers improve and that gap stays open, the market is telling you trust still isn't there.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
65 / 100
Middle of the road. In human-speak, analysts think VLY is followable, but not smooth enough to trust blindly.
risk rank
2
Safer than 80% of stocks on this measure. That lowers the disaster odds. It does not eliminate bank-specific credit risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for VLY is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$12
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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