XVARY Composite Score
34
/ 100
Weak
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Viking is trying to turn an experimental weight-loss drug into a real business before its cash burn outruns the story.
How it gets paid
Last year Viking Therapeutics made $0 in revenue.
What just happened
Latest quarter revenue was $0 and EPS was -$1.80, far worse than the -$0.85 analysts expected.
At a Glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
XVARY composite: 34/100 — weak
-$4.20 fy2027 eps est
$550M fy2029 rev est
What They Do
Viking is trying to turn an experimental weight-loss drug into a real business before its cash burn outruns the story.
The edge is focus. Viking has 53 employees and one lead obesity drug in two forms: oral and subcutaneous (a shot under the skin) — so you are betting on one program being pushed hard, not a sprawling lab empire. Insider ownership is 4.1%, while FMR owns 13.4%, Vanguard 9.1%, and BlackRock 5.2%, so serious money is already sitting at the table.
How They Make Money
$0
annual revenue
The Products That Matter
Obesity drug candidate
VK2735
Phase 2 · up to 14.7% weight loss
this is the stock. In a company worth about $3B, the lead program delivered up to 14.7% weight loss in Phase 2 and now carries most of the commercial hope.
lead asset
Metabolic liver disease candidate
VK2809
pipeline asset · pre-approval
this is the second shot on goal. In a ~$3B company with no approved products, investors want more than one asset, but VK2735 still does most of the narrative heavy lifting.
pipeline optionality
Key Numbers
$550M
2029 sales est.
That is the 2029 revenue forecast, which means investors are paying today for sales that do not exist yet.
$4.20
2027 EPS est.
Earnings per share → profit or loss per share → so what: analysts still expect a $4.20 per-share loss in 2027, so profitability is not close.
$36
18-month target
The base 18-month target is $36, only $7 above the current $29 price, so near-term upside looks modest next to the risk range.
5/100
price stability
Price stability measures how steady the stock trades. A 5 out of 100 score tells you this name swings first and explains later.
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in VKTX 3 years ago → it's now worth $27280.
The index would have given you $13880.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue was $0 and EPS was -$1.80, far worse than the -$0.85 analysts expected.
This is the quiet part out loud. Viking is still a science project with a stock price attached. Full-year losses went from -$1.01 in 2024 to -$3.19 in 2025 as it pushed programs ahead.
$0
revenue
$1.80
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the -62.35% earnings miss versus the -$0.85 estimate, because it showed spending is outrunning expectations.
-
Viking therapeutics made strides in 2025.the pharmaceutical maker notched several important milestones last year in the development of it cornerstone vk2735 weight-loss drug program.
-
This included positive readouts for both its subcutaneous and oral formulations, which it continues to aggressively advance through mid- and late-stage clinical trials.however, with r&d costs soaring in support of vk2735, and still no commercially-approved products in its portfolio, losses piled up to the tune of $3.19 a share in 2025.
-
A push to profitability is likely still a ways off.the oral version of vk2735 just completed a phase 2 study, with data released earlier this year showing promising results.
-
Leadership anticipates advancement to phase 3 clinical trials in the third quarter.as for the injectable, a phase 3 study is currently underway and primary completion is slated for mid-2027. under these time lines, viking could be looking at its first fda-approved drug later next year, but much of this depends on the upcoming data readouts.
-
We are not modeling for any meaningful revenues until 2028 at the earliest.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is VK2735 failing to clear late-stage obesity trials.
Med
Late-stage trial failure
VKTX is still a pipeline company. The latest quarter showed $0 revenue, no approved products, and a stock price anchored to what VK2735 might become.
If pivotal data disappoints, there is no operating business here to cushion the fall. The current ~$3B valuation is mostly future probability.
Med
Cash burn and future funding
CY2025Q3 R&D spending was $95.2M, and analysts still expect a $4.00 per-share loss for FY2026. Late-stage biotech does not get cheaper as programs advance.
More trial spend can mean more dilution, more debt, or a partnership signed from a position of less leverage than shareholders would like.
Med
Competition from giants already in the room
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are cited here at roughly $580B and $750B in market value. They have scale, manufacturing, and commercial muscle that VKTX does not.
Even with approval, a smaller player still has to prove its pill is differentiated enough to win share in a market the incumbents are already shaping.
With $0 revenue in the latest quarter and a ~$3B market cap, this stock is still a future-value instrument. Almost all of the debate is about probability, timing, and financing.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Catalyst
Phase 3 start for oral VK2735
The page points to Q3 2026 as the expected Phase 3 start. If that slips, your timeline to value creation slips with it.
Financial
R&D spend versus funding flexibility
Quarterly R&D was already $95.2M in CY2025Q3. You want to see progress without the financing story getting worse every quarter.
Competition
Rival oral obesity data
VK2735's appeal is partly convenience. If larger rivals show cleaner or faster oral data, the differentiation story gets thinner fast.
Strategy
Partnership or go-it-alone signals
A development or commercialization partner could validate the asset and help fund the next stretch. No partner means Viking likely carries more execution load itself.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — in human-speak, analysts think this is one of the market's weakest setups over the next 12 months.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 means the ride is rougher than most stocks. Clinical names do that.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not screaming either way right now. The pipeline matters more than the pattern.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
That is decent for biotech, but remember what is being predicted here: losses and spend, not product sales.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 191 buyers vs. 169 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 71.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$14
$58
$29
Current price
$36
Target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+90% · 17% ann'l return)
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