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what it is
Vital Farms sells pasture-raised eggs, butter, ghee, and breakfast foods through more than 26,000 stores and online.
how it gets paid
Last year Vital Foods made $759M in revenue. shell eggs was the main engine at $592M, or 78% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 25.3% last year. Trailing annual revenue reached $759 million, up 25.3% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 38.3%.
what just happened
Revenue hit $546M, but the most recent earnings release still came with a miss versus expectations.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
21.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
20.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Vital Farms sells pasture-raised eggs, butter, ghee, and breakfast foods through more than 26,000 stores and online.
Vital Farms wins because it built supply before demand got crowded. It sources from more than 425 family farms and sells 23 SKUs across 26,000 stores. That network acts like distribution scale (more places to sell) → shelf presence → so your premium egg brand stays in front of shoppers.
How they make money
$759M
annual revenue · their business grew +25.3% last year
shell eggs
$592M
butter
$84M
ghee
$30M
egg products
$30M
breakfast offerings
$23M
The products that matter
sells premium eggs and butter
Merchandise Sales
$645M · 85% of revenue
it is the center of gravity. This line produced $645M, or 85% of total revenue, so if shelf velocity slows, the whole story feels it.
core
related services and other revenue
Services & Other
$76M · about 10% of revenue
this line contributed $76M. It matters less for size than for mix — any growth here makes the business a little less dependent on one main merchandise engine.
secondary
Key numbers
20.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this business turns growth spending into real earnings better than many packaged-food peers.
$930M
2026 revenue estimate
That is the current sales target for fiscal 2026, up from $759 million trailing revenue, so your bet still needs more growth.
14.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: premium pricing is working, but there is not endless room for mistakes.
$6M
long-term debt
Debt is basically a rounding error here, which means the balance sheet is not the thing that blows you up.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $6M (0% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.8% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in VITL 3 years ago → it's now worth $21,290.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $546M, but the most recent earnings release still came with a miss versus expectations.
Trailing annual revenue reached $759 million, up 25.3% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 38.3%. But the last reported earnings result was $0.35 versus a $0.41 estimate, a 14.63% miss.
$546M
revenue
$1.09
eps
38.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 38.3% gross margin matters most because gross margin → money left after product costs → so what: it shows the premium brand still has pricing power.
-
shares of vital farms have slipped in the last three months.
-
the texas-based producer of ethically sourced, pastureraised eggs and butter saw its stock price decline almost 20% in value since our october review.investors took notice of management’s softer revenue outlook for 2025, connected to vital’s long-term facility expansion plans (more below). while leadership continues to expect full-year adjusted ebitda of more than $115 million, revenue guidance was reduced to a range of $755 million-$765 million, down from its previous outlook of at least $775 million. this reflects temporary supply disruptions tied to the transition to a new enterprise resource planning (erp) system that went live in the fourth quarter. although the erp system exited the ‘‘hypercare’’ phase in early december and operations are returning to normal, there lies uncertainty surrounding the timing that orders normalize.
-
thus, we have pared our 2025 top line call by $10 million to $765 million.nevertheless, the bottom-line outlook remains intact, given cost control efforts and volume gains from the addition of 75 new family farms and the october launch of a third production line at egg central station, which likely boosted fourth-quarter performance.
-
bottom-line growth appears to be more moderate in 2026.increased investments tied to capacity expansion and supply-chain projects ought to keep a lid on the margin performance. meanwhile, the addition of a third production line at egg central station is expected to expand total egg processing volume to roughly $1.2 billion in annual revenue and support volume growth as capacity comes online.
-
as such, the company’s top- and bottom-line gains should carry through 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is premium egg demand slowing while expansion spend keeps rising.
med
premium grocery demand is not a utility bill
Vital Farms sells a premium product. If consumers trade down during a weaker spending environment, the $645M merchandise business takes the hit first.
that risk touches most of the company's $759M revenue base.
med
capacity expansion can dilute the margin story before it helps it
Management is adding farms, lines, and facility capacity. That can support growth, but it can also turn an 8.8% annual net margin into a thinner number if throughput lags.
the latest quarter already showed an 8.3% net margin, below the 8.8% full-year figure.
med
the farm network has to scale cleanly
Adding 75 new family farms sounds great. It also means more coordination, more dependence on producer execution, and more chances for supply bottlenecks in the core merchandise line.
if that network stumbles, the core 85%-of-revenue merchandise segment feels it immediately.
This is a premium food brand with real growth, but nearly all of the payoff still depends on the core retail merchandise engine staying strong while expansion projects mature.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
the $765M revenue outlook
That is the reference point management and the market are now arguing over. If updates move lower, the growth premium gets harder to defend.
metric
net margin versus the 8.8% full-year level
The latest quarter came in at 8.3%. You want to see expansion spend stabilize, not keep eating the economics.
calendar
throughput from the third production line
The October launch matters because new capacity only earns a return when volume actually shows up.
trend
whether 75 new farms translate into steady supply
More farms should support growth. They also raise the execution bar across sourcing, logistics, and quality control.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. This is a middle-of-the-pack risk setup — not defensive, not reckless.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. The chart is not confirming a clean rebound yet.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
low predictability means your quarterly experience may feel bumpier than the long-term story suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 147 buyers vs. 117 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 45.7M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$27
$77
$33
current price
$52
target midpoint · +60% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+145% · 25% ann'l return)
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