XVARY Composite Score
48
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Vista Gold tries to turn 3 gold projects into a mine, but today it still brings in $0 revenue.
How it gets paid
Last year Vista Gold made $0 in revenue. Mt Todd gold project was the main engine at $0, or 40% of sales.
What just happened
Vista posted $0 revenue and -$0.05 EPS.
At a Glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
2.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.05 fy2024 eps est
N/a operating margin
XVARY composite: 48/100 — below average
What They Do
Vista Gold tries to turn 3 gold projects into a mine, but today it still brings in $0 revenue.
You are buying 13 employees and 5.2 million ounces of reserves, not a factory. Mt Todd's 2025 study cut capex (construction spending) 59% to $425M, down from a bigger bill. That matters because one business bucket carries the whole story, and 3 named projects leave you waiting on permits, funding, and gold prices.
How They Make Money
$0
annual revenue
Mt Todd gold project
$0
Guadalupe de los Reyes
$0
Los Cardones
$0
Corporate and other
$0
The Products That Matter
Pre-development gold asset
Mt Todd Gold Project
5.2M ounces · $425M build cost
it holds 5.2M ounces of proven and probable reserves, but the mine still needs $425M before it can generate a dollar of revenue.
entire thesis
Project economics blueprint
2025 Feasibility Study
59% lower capex
the July 2025 study cut estimated construction cost by 59% to $425M. that's the number holding up the current bull case.
key catalyst
Balance sheet runway
Cash Position
$13.6M on hand
cash fell to $13.6M from $20.8M a year earlier, which tells you time is being spent while the asset is still not producing.
watch runway
Key Numbers
$263M
market cap
You are paying $263M for a company with $0 revenue. That is speculation, not cash flow.
$0
annual revenue
Zero sales means the stock lives or dies on project milestones, not current business.
5.2M
oz reserves
Mt Todd's 5.2 million ounces give the bull case its math.
13
employees
A 13-person shop does not have the overhead of a producer.
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Vista posted $0 revenue and -$0.05 EPS.
EDGAR shows no sales and a loss. That is normal for a developer and ugly for a stock at $2.07.
$0
revenue
-$0.05
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
Revenue was $0, so every return depends on Mt Todd and financing.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is funding Mt Todd without crushing existing shareholders.
High
The funding gap is still enormous
Mt Todd needs $425M to build. Vista Gold ended 2025 with $13.6M in cash and announced a $30M raise. Even if that raise closes, the company is still short by roughly $381.4M versus the study estimate.
If financing stalls, the project stays a paper asset and the stock stays a financing trade.
High
Dilution is not a side risk. it's the mechanism
The February 2026 $30M public offering matters because the business has $0 revenue and burned cash down from $20.8M to $13.6M in a year. New equity is how the story keeps moving.
Your ownership percentage can shrink long before Mt Todd gets built.
Med
This is a one-asset company
There is no portfolio here. The company has one flagship project, one feasibility study, and $0 operating revenue. If Mt Todd slips, the whole thesis slips with it.
Single-asset exposure means there is nowhere else for value to hide.
Med
Timeline drift raises the cost of waiting
Management is targeting a 2027 engineering start. Every delay means more pre-development spend against a finite cash balance and more time before the project can justify a larger funding package.
A later schedule makes another raise more likely before a mine decision gets made.
Mt Todd requires $425M and the company had $13.6M in cash at year-end. That mismatch defines almost all of the downside from here.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Calendar
$30M offering close
Expected around March 9, 2026. First question: does it close cleanly. Second question: what comes after it.
Metric
Cash balance after the raise
The next balance update will show how much runway management actually bought. In a pre-revenue miner, cash is the scoreboard.
Trend
2027 engineering target
If detailed engineering slips beyond 2027, the market will read that as funding or execution trouble.
Risk
The remaining funding plan
The real milestone is not the next $30M. It is a credible path to the remaining hundreds of millions Mt Todd still needs.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
45 / 100
In human-speak, the numbers are messy because there is no operating mine yet.
published analyst target
$5.00
HC Wainwright raised its target from $3.00 to $5.00 on March 2, 2026. That's a vote for project upside, not proof that financing risk is solved.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for VGZ is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$2
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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