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what it is
Vericel grows your own cells into treatments for damaged knee cartilage and severe burns.
how it gets paid
Last year Vericel made $276M in revenue.
why it's growing
FY2025 total revenue grew vs. 2024; company-reported FY2025 gross margin was about 74% with strong MACI mix (see Feb 26, 2026 results release).
what just happened
Q4 2025 was a record quarter on revenue and profitability in the company’s release — not a $183M quarter and not a $0.13 loss (those lines were bad data).
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
High trailing P/E vs. FY2025 net income ~$16.5M — multiple moves with earnings revisions
3.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.20 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
Vericel grows your own cells into treatments for damaged knee cartilage and severe burns.
This is a niche business where manufacturing is part of the product. Patient-specific therapy means your cells are the raw material, which makes scale hard and copycats slower. FY2025 revenue was about $276M with MACI carrying most of the growth — check the latest 10-K for headcount and per-employee economics.
How they make money
$276M
annual revenue · their business grew +16.5% last year
total revenue
$276M
+16.5%
The products that matter
knee cartilage repair
MACI
$155M annual revenue · +25% growth
it is the main growth engine. MACI drove roughly $155M of the $276.3M business, and Q3 2025 revenue alone reached $55.7M.
56% of revenue
severe burn treatment
Epicel
balance of ~$37M FY2025 non-MACI revenue
Epicel and other lines matter clinically but are smaller dollars next to MACI — approximate remainder is total revenue minus MACI for FY2025.
supporting segment
manufacturing capacity
new MACI facility
commercial start slated for Q2 2026
this is not booked as revenue yet, but it is central to the thesis. the market is assuming new capacity helps turn 72.3% gross margin into more than 4.2% operating margin.
thesis hinge
Key numbers
$276M
annual revenue
EDGAR says sales grew 16.5% vs. prior year to $276M. Plain English: demand is real. So what: the business is growing faster than most small-cap healthcare names.
~$16.5M
FY2025 net income
FY2025 profitability in the Feb 26, 2026 release — compare to market cap for an effective earnings yield, not a stale margin stub.
~74%
FY2025 gross margin
FY2025 gross margin ~74% and Q4 ~79% in the Feb 26, 2026 materials — strong unit economics before corporate overhead.
3.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → efficiency is still weak. So what: management has not yet turned growth into elite returns.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $86M (5% of capital)
P0: Vericel Q4/FY2025 results (Globe Newswire, Feb 26, 2026) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/26/3245488/0/en/Vericel-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results.html
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for VCEL right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
filed quarter
Q4 2025: ~$92.9M total revenue (+23% YoY); EPS ~$0.45; MACI revenue ~$84.1M.
FY2025 total revenue ~$276.3M; FY net income ~$16.5M (+59% YoY); FY gross margin ~74%. 2026 guidance (revenue ~$316–326M, MACI ~$280–286M) is forward-looking — not P0 until reported.
$92.9M
Q4 revenue
$0.45
Q4 EPS
79%
Q4 gross margin
why the release matters
It replaces stale scrape errors ($183M quarters, fake losses) with one consistent filing narrative: MACI scale, profitability, and capacity timing.
P0: Globe Newswire / Vericel Q4–FY2025 release (Feb 26, 2026) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/26/3245488/0/en/Vericel-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results.html
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the Q2 2026 MACI manufacturing start failing to convert growth into margin expansion.
med
manufacturing start-up risk
The new FDA-approved MACI facility is supposed to begin commercial production in Q2 2026. If the start slips or quality issues slow output, the main catalyst behind the premium multiple weakens fast.
MACI already contributes the large majority of revenue. When your main segment is carrying the story, a plant delay is not a side issue.
med
the valuation is doing more work than the income statement
The stock can re-rate fast if FY profitability or MACI growth disappoints versus what is already in the price.
If operating leverage does not show up, the multiple has room to shrink even if revenue keeps growing.
med
this is still a one-engine growth story
MACI grew 25%. Epicel and other revenue grew 7%. That split tells you one product is driving most of the momentum.
If MACI cools before the new facility ramps, you are left with a slower business and the same rich valuation.
At a $2B market cap, 116x trailing earnings, and only 4.2% operating margin, your downside is not abstract. It sits in the gap between what this business is today and what the market already assumes it becomes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
schedule
Q2 2026 MACI production start
This is the hinge. If commercial production begins on time, the bull case keeps breathing. If it slips, you will hear the multiple creak.
margin
operating leverage after capacity ramps
Gross margins are already strong in the release. The proof point is how much drops through after the new MACI facility is online.
growth
MACI staying well ahead of the rest of the business
MACI grew 25% while Epicel and other revenue grew 7%. You want that gap to hold until a second growth lane shows up.
expansion
mid-2026 U.K. filing timing
The expected MHRA filing is the first real test of growth beyond the current market. If it moves right, the one-product feel gets stronger.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust the quarterly path to be smooth.
risk rank
3
middle of the pack on safety. not distressed, not defensive.
price stability
20 / 100
this stock tends to trade on expectations first and comfort second.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for VCEL is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$36
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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