Start here if you're new
what it is
US Foods buys, stores, and delivers food and restaurant supplies to about 250,000 customers across the U.S.
how it gets paid
FY2025 net sales were $39.4B (up 4.1% YoY, Feb 11, 2026 release). The FY2025 Form 10-K reports the 50 largest customers—including group purchasing organizations—represented about 42% of net sales (roughly ~$16.5B on that base); no single customer exceeded ~2%.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.1% last year. Said September-quarter EPS rose 26% vs. prior year to $1.07.
what just happened
US Foods posted EPS of $1.04, beating the $1.01 consensus estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~19x trailing P/E on adjusted EPS (~$76.49 ÷ ~$3.98 FY2025)
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
US Foods buys, stores, and delivers food and restaurant supplies to about 250,000 customers across the U.S.
Scale is the whole trick here. US Foods runs 70-plus distribution facilities and 6,500-plus trucks, serving about 250,000 customers with roughly 400,000 items. Switching costs (leaving is a hassle) are real because your kitchen needs everything to show up on time, every time, and few players can match this footprint.
How they make money
$39.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.1% last year
FY2025 net sales (total)
$39.4B
+4.1%
Top 50 customers (incl. GPOs)
~$16.5B
~42% of sales
All other customers (residual)
~$22.9B
~58% of sales
The products that matter
delivers food to commercial kitchens
Foodservice Distribution
$39.4B revenue · essentially the whole business
it's the entire $39.4B revenue machine. That scale matters, but FY2025 GAAP net income margin was 1.7%—execution still drives every basis point.
1.7% FY net margin
Key numbers
1.7%
FY net margin
FY2025 GAAP net income margin was 1.7% ($676M net income on $39.4B net sales, per the earnings release).
$39.4B
annual revenue
Scale is the moat. Few distributors can serve 250,000 customers at this size.
14.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this business is better than a pure commodity middleman.
$97
18-month target
That target is 27% above the $76.49 share price, which says the market still doubts the earnings climb.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $4.8B (22% of capital)
- net profit margin (GAAP) 1.7% FY2025 — $676M net income on $39.4B net sales (Feb 11, 2026 release)
- return on equity 26% — $0.26 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in USFD 3 years ago → it's now worth $22,340.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
Q4 2025
Q4 2025 diluted EPS $0.82 GAAP · $1.04 adjusted on $9.8B net sales.
The Feb 11, 2026 release shows gross profit as a percent of net sales at 17.6% in Q4 and 17.4% for the full year. FY2025 diluted EPS was $2.94 GAAP and $3.98 adjusted.
$9.8B
Q4 net sales
$0.82 / $1.04
diluted EPS
17.6%
Q4 gross margin
the number that mattered
Adjusted EBITDA hit $1.93B for the year (release)—on a 1.7% GAAP net margin business, EBITDA and adjusted EPS are where management tells the operating story.
-
us foods will not be joining forces with performance food group.the company approached its rival over the summer about a possible acquisition, and the two parties subsequently began to review possible regulatory and considerations related to such a transaction. this process, though, was terminated in november, at which time usfd also announced plans to institute a $250million accelerated share repurchase plan.
-
investors cheered this development, bidding the stock up 8% in price when the company announced this decision.
-
earnings continue to climb at a strong clip.
-
FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS reached $3.98 (company record), with Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.04.per the Feb 11, 2026 earnings release; compare to $2.94 GAAP diluted EPS for the year.
-
this progress is being made despite sluggish customer traffic in the restaurant industry, which is reflected in fairly lethargic volume trends for usfd (total cases climbed just 1.1%).
P0: US Foods Q4/FY 2025 earnings (Feb 11, 2026) — Business Wire · customer concentration (~42% / top 50 incl. GPOs): FY2025 Form 10-K
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What could go wrong
the top risk is restaurant traffic staying soft while US Foods runs a ~1.7% GAAP net margin for the year.
med
restaurant demand weakens
US Foods depends on commercial kitchens ordering product consistently. If restaurant traffic stays sluggish, the pressure lands on the same $39.4B revenue base that powers the whole company.
with one core business and no segment diversification, softer demand hits volume, mix, and pricing at once.
med
thin margins leave no cushion
FY2025 GAAP net margin was 1.7%, while Q4 was 1.9% (release). This is still a pennies business—small cost shocks move the income statement.
when the profit pool is this thin, small operating misses can do outsized damage to earnings.
med
debt limits flexibility
the balance sheet is fine, not pristine. US Foods carries $4.8B of long-term debt, equal to 22% of capital, which is reasonable until operating conditions get tougher.
debt does not look dangerous today, but it reduces room to absorb a downturn or an execution stumble.
all three risks point to the same reality: 100% of a $39.4B distribution business depends on volume holding up and the margin staying above razor-thin levels.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin trend
Q4 2025 net income margin was 1.9% vs 1.7% for FY2025 (release). The question is whether adjusted EBITDA margin expansion (4.9% FY2025) keeps outpacing mix headwinds.
trend
restaurant traffic
management is still growing through sluggish traffic. If the end market improves, you get a tailwind. If it weakens, the thin-margin model feels it fast.
calendar
next outlook update
the company already raised full-year guidance once. The next update will tell you whether that confidence was conservative or one-quarter-specific.
risk
industry consolidation talk
the Performance Food Group approach went nowhere, but it revealed strategic intent. If deal chatter returns, execution risk and regulatory risk return with it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think this stock has better near-term odds than almost everything else they cover.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — a middle-of-the-pack risk setup. not a bunker stock, not chaos either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the trend has been strong enough that analysts still expect above-average price performance from here.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
this is the warning label. earnings are harder to forecast here than they are for steadier compounders, because a few margin points decide the quarter.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 300 buyers vs. 313 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$65
$128
$76
current price
$97
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+70% · 14% ann'l return)
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