uri

united rentals, inc.
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deep dive industrials large cap Jul 26, 2026
Position Short Price $1,141.59 ~$71.06B mcap Jul 26, 2026 as-of date

Intrinsic value of $840.00 implies 26.4% downside from the current $1,141.59 share price.

That intrinsic line rolls up bear, base, and bull by assigned weights, not one cherry-picked case. Plain English: "intrinsic value" means what the model says the stock is worth if the growth narrative mostly holds. It isn't a promise.

conviction
30/100
thesis confidence
12m price target
$840.00
base case
intrinsic value
$840.00
-26.4%
recommendation
Short
portfolio stance
overall signal score
30/100
Strong cash generation and valuation disconnect, partially offset by debt load/liquidity
bullish signals
7
Alt data/quality/cash-flow positives outweigh near-term noise
bearish signals
4
Balance-sheet tightness and cyclical sensitivity remain real
data freshness
Mar 24, 2026
Market data live; latest audited financials through 2025-12-31

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report snapshot

executive summary

Intrinsic value of $840.00 implies 26.4% downside from the current $1,141.59 share price. The non-obvious signal is that URI is not merely earning a high return on assets; it's converting that operating quality into cash, with $4.993B of free cash flow and a 31.0% FCF margin in 2025.

Recommendation
Short
portfolio stance
12M Price Target
$840.00
-26.4% versus the verified $1,141.59 close
Intrinsic Value
$840.00
-26.4% versus the verified $1,141.59 close
core debate

Intrinsic value of $840.00 implies 26.4% downside from the current $1,141.59 share price...

headline tape

$1,141.59 · ~$71.06B · as of Jul 26, 2026.

bear case
$840.00
In the bear case, broader economic weakness spreads into private non-residential and local construction markets more severely than expected, causing rental volumes to soften, fleet utilization to decline, and pricing gains to fade...
bull case
$2,225.00
In the bull case, URI continues to benefit from durable demand tied to mega projects, infrastructure spending, power and data center buildouts, and ongoing customer preference for renting over owning equipment...
base case
$1,008.00
In the base case, growth moderates but remains positive enough for URI to deliver stable-to-up earnings through a combination of modest rental rate improvement, decent utilization, and continued outperformance in specialty categories...
top findings

United Rentals is a high-quality cyclical with better-than-perceived resilience: it has dominant scale, a dense branch network, strong free cash flow conversion, a more specialized and higher-return rental mix, and exposure to multi-year non-residential and infrastructure investment. Even if growth moderates, the company can still defend margins through utilization, rate discipline, and fleet capex flexibility while continuing meaningful shareholder returns...

aggregate synthesis

Numbers can look similar while narrative labels diverge. Focus on which spreadsheet row the market is pricing.

variant perception & thesis

pm brief

URI looks like a high-quality, cash-generative rental platform that the market is still valuing too much like a cyclical asset-heavy industrial. We are constructive: the data support a Long view with measured conviction, because the company produced $16.10B of revenue, $3.97B of operating income, and $4.993B of free cash flow in 2025, while shares trade at $1141.59 versus a deterministic base fair value of $840.00

1. Fleet Unit Economics

Catalyst

Can URI sustain or improve rental fleet unit economics over the next 12-24 months, specifically rental pricing, physical utilization, time utilization, and ownership/maintenance costs, such that EBITDA and normalized free cash flow meet or exceed current market expectations...

2. Cash Flow Quality Normalization

Catalyst

Is URI's recent cash flow performance, including the Q1 2025 rebound, representative of durable normalized free cash flow after adjusting for working-capital timing, fleet capex needs, and cycle effects...

3. Capital Intensity Cycle Risk

Thesis Pillar

Can URI earn attractive through-cycle returns on its fleet investments despite high capital intensity, or will elevated replacement/growth capex and cyclicality structurally suppress free cash flow and valuation...

4. Valuation Model Reality Check

Catalyst

Does URI's true intrinsic value remain materially above the current share price when the valuation is stress-tested with cycle-normalized growth, lower free-cash-flow margins, higher capex intensity, and less favorable working-capital assumptions...

the 60-second pitch

Our differentiated view is that URI’s economics are strong enough to justify a materially higher equity value even after discounting cyclicality: the company generated $4.993B of free cash flow on $16.10B of revenue, implying a 31.0% FCF margin. That's Long for the thesis, but only if management keeps ROIC above the current 13.7% and prevents debt load from drifting materially higher. We would change our mind if FCF margin fell below 20% or if total liabilities to equity moved above 3.0x without a compensating improvement in growth.

CriterionThresholdActual ValuePass/Fail

Price/Earnings

< 15x

19.0

Fail

Price/Book

< 1.5x

5.1

Fail

Debt-to-Equity

< 1.0x

1.59

Fail

Current Ratio

> 2.0x

0.94

Fail

ROIC

> 10%

13.7%

Pass

Revenue Growth

> 3% sustained

+3.0%

Borderline

Exhibit 3: THESIS data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

financial analysis

elite economics
Revenue
$3.7B
vs $15.63B prior (2024 annual, derived from 3.0% YoY growth)
Net Income
$0.7B
vs $2.20B prior (derived from 15.5% net margin)
EPS
$10.27
vs $43.17 prior (institutional survey 2024 EPS)
Debt/Equity
1.59
vs 1.59 prior year-end
Current Ratio
0.94
vs 0.97 prior year-end (3.25B/3.32B)
FCF Yield
10.8%
vs 10.8% prior; FCF $4.993B on $46.12B market cap
MetricValue

Equity Value

$29.87B

Equity Value (2)

$20.90B

Equity Value (3)

$14.30B

Equity Value (4)

$8.97B

Equity Value (5)

$3.61B

Equity Value (6)

$3.82B

Equity Value (7)

$459.0M

Equity Value (8)

$7.12B

Exhibit 1: FIN data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.
MetricValue

Revenue

$234.97

Revenue (2)

$253.95

EPS

$278.00

EPS (2)

$43.17

EPS (3)

$42.80

P/E

$47.50

Exhibit 2: FIN data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.
production-report readthrough

Most important takeaway: URI is generating very strong cash and profit quality, but the balance sheet is tight. The combination of a 31.0% FCF margin and 27.8% ROE says the core rental engine is highly productive, while the 0.94 current ratio shows that near-term liquidity remains the key constraint rather than earnings power.

valuation

probability-weighted fair value

United Rentals’ valuation profile is unusually wide relative to the current share price of $1141.59 as of Mar 24, 2026, with deterministic model outputs ranging from a bear DCF value of $840.00 to a bull case of $4,601.19 and a Monte Carlo median of $4,717.42. On the surface, the stock screens at 19.0x FY2025 P/E, 13.6x EV/EBITDA, and 2.9x P/S, while the model’s DCF fair value of $840.00 implies a +362.9% uplift versus the live price. That gap is driven by the model’s assumption set: $16.10B revenue base, 31.0% FCF margin, 10.1% WACC, and 4.0% terminal growth. The reverse DCF is equally stark, indicating the market would need to justify a 5.3% implied growth rate or a 23.6% implied WACC to support the current quote. The result is a valuation pane that reads as deeply discounted on DCF, but not without meaningful model sensitivity tied to growth, terminal assumptions, and capital-market inputs. The broader context matters: the company ended 2025 with $14.30B of long-term debt, $8.97B of equity, and $4.99B of free cash flow, while shares outstanding declined to 63.1M, helping per-share value accretion. Independently, the institutional survey places URI in Machinery and ranks it 26 of 94 peers, with Safety Rank 3, Timeliness Rank 3, and Financial Strength B+, which is consistent with a high-quality but cyclical compounder rather than a defensive multiple franchise. The valuation discussion therefore hinges on whether investors anchor to current-cycle earnings power or to a longer-duration cash flow stream supported by rental scale, specialty mix, and buybacks.

ParameterValue

Revenue (base)

$16.1B (USD)

FCF Margin

31.0%

WACC

10.1%

Terminal Growth

4.0%

Growth Path

50.0% → 50.0% → 50.0% → 50.0% → 6.0%

Template

asset_light_growth

Current Price

$1141.59

Per-Share Fair Value

$3,388.51

Exhibit 1: VAL data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL; computed deterministically
bear case

$840.00

In the bear case, broader economic weakness spreads into private non-residential and local construction markets more severely than expected, causing rental volumes to soften, fleet utilization to decline, and pricing gains to fade...

bull case

$2,225.00

In the bull case, URI continues to benefit from durable demand tied to mega projects, infrastructure spending, power and data center buildouts, and ongoing customer preference for renting over owning equipment...

base case

$1,008.00

In the base case, growth moderates but remains positive enough for URI to deliver stable-to-up earnings through a combination of modest rental rate improvement, decent utilization, and continued outperformance in specialty categories...

ParameterValue

Long-Run Mean

25.5%

Current vs Mean

no material mean-reversion detected

Reversion Speed (θ)

0.000

Volatility (σ)

1.82pp

Current Operating Margin

24.7%

Exhibit 5: VAL data | Source: SEC EDGAR; OU process estimation

what breaks the thesis

falsifiable kill criteria

Overall Risk Rating: 7/10 (Cyclical, leveraged industrial rental model with sub-1.0 current ratio and 1.60 beta.) · # Key Risks: 8 (Includes competitive, refinancing, utilization, pricing, and capex risks.) · Bear Case Downside: -$499.34/share (Bear DCF of $2,224.71 vs current price of $1141.59 implies no downside from the DCF alone; relative downside risk is driven by re-rating risk if the market re-prices growth normalization.).

risk framing

Biggest caution: URI’s thesis is most vulnerable if the 31.0% FCF margin proves cyclical rather than structural. The company has only $459.0M of cash versus $3.82B of current liabilities, so even a moderate slowdown in collections or a need to defend utilization can quickly turn a good operating year into a balance-sheet discussion.

PillarInvalidating FactsP(Invalidation)

fleet-unit-economics

For 2 consecutive quarters, URI reports negative year-over-year rental rate/pricing realization in a way not offset by higher utilization or lower costs, causing rental revenue per fleet dollar to decline materially versus market expectations.; Physical utilization and/or time utilization decline materially versus prior year and management guidance for at least 2 consecutive quarters, indicating weakening fleet productivity rather than temporary mix effects.; Ownership and maintenance costs as a percentage of rental revenue rise materially for multiple quarters and management indicates the increase is structural (aging fleet, higher repair/fuel/parts/labor, poor resale), not temporary.

34%

True

cash-flow-quality-normalization

Over the next 4 quarters, reported operating cash flow materially underconverts relative to EBITDA because the Q1 2025 rebound proves to be mostly working-capital reversal/timing rather than durable earnings cash conversion.; Maintenance fleet capex required to sustain revenue/utilization is shown to be materially higher than assumed by the bull case, reducing normalized free cash flow below current market expectations.; Management or filings indicate recent free cash flow was helped by temporary working-capital benefits, tax timing, or unusually favorable disposal proceeds that reverse in subsequent quarters.

38%

True

capital-intensity-cycle-risk

Through-cycle evidence (current results, guidance, and revised capex plans) shows URI must sustain materially higher gross fleet capex and replacement capex than expected just to hold utilization and revenue, compressing free cash flow structurally.; A downturn or demand slowdown produces a sharp drop in rental revenue and EBITDA while fleet capex can't be reduced proportionally, demonstrating the business is less flexible and more cash consumptive than the thesis assumes.; Used equipment resale values weaken materially, increasing economic depreciation and lowering returns on fleet investment versus historical norms.

41%

True

valuation-model-reality-check

After incorporating observed results, a reasonable stress-tested valuation using lower normalized growth, lower free-cash-flow margins, higher capex intensity, and less favorable working-capital assumptions yields intrinsic value at or below the current share price.; Consensus or management medium-term expectations for EBITDA/free cash flow are revised down enough that even optimistic but defensible multiples/DCF assumptions no longer support material upside.; Evidence emerges that normalized free cash flow margins are structurally lower than assumed, making prior valuation upside dependent on peak-cycle conditions.

47%

True

competitive-advantage-durability

URI experiences sustained rental price pressure in multiple regions/categories that can't be explained by mix, with share gains requiring margin-sacrificing pricing actions.; Gross margin or EBITDA margin underperform peers for several quarters while management cites competitive intensity, local competition, or reduced ability to pass through pricing.; Customer churn rises or major national/account customers shift spend to rivals or alternative ownership models, indicating weaker switching costs/service differentiation than assumed.

29%

True

execution-demand-blind-spot

Leading indicators and company disclosures show broad-based end-market softening (construction/industrial demand, backlog, local market activity) that subsequently appears in weaker rentals, utilization, or guidance within 1-2 quarters.; Management misses guidance or materially revises outlook downward due to execution issues, fleet allocation mistakes, salesforce underperformance, or integration/operational disruptions.; Channel/customer commentary indicates order deferrals, shorter rental durations, lower emergency/spot demand, or rising idle fleet that was not visible in prior reported numbers.

33%

True
Exhibit 1: RISK data | Source: Methodology Why-Tree Decomposition
Overall Risk Rating
7/10
Cyclical, leveraged industrial rental model with sub-1.0 current ratio and 1.60 beta.
# Key Risks
8
Includes competitive, refinancing, utilization, pricing, and capex risks.
Bear Case Downside
-$499.34/share
Bear DCF of $2,224.71 vs current price of $1141.59 implies no downside from the DCF alone; relative downside risk is driven by re-rating risk if the market re-prices growth normalization.
most dangerous zone

Watch for drawdowns driven by fundamentals where funds de-risk faster than the business narrative updates.

fundamentals & operations

fundamentals

United Rentals’ fundamentals remain centered on scale, pricing discipline, and fleet productivity. The audited 2025 results show revenue of $16.10B, gross profit of $6.14B, operating income of $3.97B, and net income of $2.49B, while the latest quarter ended 2025-09-30 posted $4.23B of revenue, $1.67B of gross profit, $1.11B of operating income, and $701.0M of net income. At current market data as of Mar 24, 2026, URI carries a $46.12B market cap at $1141.59 per share, with deterministic valuation metrics showing 19.0x P/E, 13.6x EV/EBITDA, and 2.9x EV/Sales. The company’s margin profile is still solid for a capital-intensive rental platform, but the latest gross margin of 38.2% sits below the FY2024 sequence shown in the available data, and the current ratio of 0.94 shows a balance sheet that remains levered to working-capital and fleet investment needs. The institutional survey also points to strong earnings predictability of 85 and an industry rank of 26 of 94 in Machinery, which helps frame URI as a high-quality cyclical rather than a pure defensive compounder.

GROSS MARGIN
43.0%
FY2025 latest; deterministic gross margin
OP MARGIN
28.5%
FY2025 latest; deterministic operating margin
NET MARGIN
17.7%
FY2025 latest; deterministic net margin
FCF MARGIN
31.0%
FY2025 latest; deterministic free cash flow margin

Revenue Trend

bar
FY2024
3.48
FY2024
3.77
FY2024
3.99
FY2024
15.35
FY2025
3.72
FY2025
3.94
FY2025
4.23
FY2025
16.1
Exhibit 1: OPS analysis | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings

Margin Trends (%)

line
periodGross Margin %Operating Margin %Net Margin %
FY202438.624.415.6
FY202440.226.616.9
FY202441.328.117.7
FY202440.126.516.8
FY202536.521.613.9
FY202538.925.415.8
FY202539.426.316.6
FY202538.224.715.5
Exhibit 2: OPS analysis | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings

URI’s revenue base has continued to scale even as quarterly run-rates fluctuate with fleet utilization, pricing, and project timing. The audited full-year revenue figure of $16.10B for 2025 compares with $15.35B in the quarterly series shown in the chart, while the most recent quarter ended 2025-09-30 delivered $4.23B of revenue versus $3.94B in the prior sequential annualized reference used in the panel. That quarter also produced $1.67B of gross profit and $1.11B of operating income, translating to a 39.4% gross margin and 26.3% operating margin in the chart sequence before settling at 38.2% and 24.7% at the latest point...

Margin performance remains one of URI’s most important fundamental signals because the company’s profitability is highly sensitive to fleet utilization and pricing discipline. The source data shows gross margin of 38.2%, operating margin of 24.7%, and net margin of 15.5% in the latest deterministic outputs. The margin chart indicates a clear range: gross margin peaked at 41.3% in the FY2024 sequence before drifting to 36.5% in FY2025 and then recovering toward 39.4% before ending at 38.2%...

The balance sheet shows URI remains a leveraged industrial platform, but not one that appears distressed based on the available data. Total liabilities were $20.90B at 2025-12-31 against shareholders’ equity of $8.97B, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 and total liabilities to equity of 2.33. Long-term debt increased from $13.47B in 2024 to $14.30B in 2025, while cash and equivalents were $459.0M at year-end...

See supply chain

See financial analysis

competitive position

moat vs. customer-as-competitor

Moat Score (1-10): 5 (Strong current profitability, but moat mechanisms aren't evidenced.) · Contestability: Semi-Contestable (High profitability is visible, but barriers and rivalry structure are only partially evidenced.) · Customer Captivity: Weak (No verified switching costs, network effects, or search-cost lock-in data.).

Moat Score (1-10)
5
Strong current profitability, but moat mechanisms aren't evidenced.
Contestability
Semi-Contestable
High profitability is visible, but barriers and rivalry structure are only partially evidenced.
Customer Captivity
Weak
No verified switching costs, network effects, or search-cost lock-in data.
Price War Risk
Medium
Margins are strong, but the absence of verified captivity and peer structure keeps rivalry risk material.

Single most important takeaway: URI’s 24.7% operating margin looks like moat evidence at first glance, but the source data explicitly lacks the competitor map, switching-cost evidence, and customer-captivity proof needed to classify that margin as structurally protected. In Greenwald terms, this is the classic trap: strong current economics don't automatically mean a durable position-based advantage.

Takeaway. The matrix confirms a major analytical gap rather than a hidden moat: URI has verified scale and profitability, but no authoritative peer data to prove that rivals are structurally inferior or that buyers lack debt load. That means the competitive conclusion must lean on Greenwald-style mechanism testing, not on the raw fact of market leadership.

Greenwald Contestability Assessment

SEMI-CONTESTABLE

URI should be treated as a semi-contestable market participant rather than a proven non-contestable monopolist. The company’s 2025 audited economics are excellent, $16.10B revenue, 24.7% operating margin, 31.0% FCF margin, but the available data doesn't provide the decisive Greenwald evidence that a new entrant couldn't match URI’s cost structure or capture equivalent demand at the same price. The key point is that the incumbent’s profitability is observable, while the protection mechanisms aren't...

MechanismRelevanceStrengthEvidenceDurability

Habit Formation

Low relevance; rental decisions are typically project-driven rather than daily habitual consumption.

Weak

No repeat-frequency or brand-routine evidence is provided in the available data.

LOW

Switching Costs

Potentially relevant if customers have account integrations, fleet standardization, or national contracts, but this isn't evidenced.

Weak

No verified lock-in, termination penalty, or migration friction data are provided.

Low to Moderate n/a

Brand as Reputation

Moderately relevant because equipment uptime, service reliability, and safety are experience attributes.

Moderate

URI’s strong 2025 margins and 85 earnings predictability support a reputation narrative, but not a lock-in narrative.

Moderate

Network Effects

Low relevance; the business is not evidenced as a two-sided platform or marketplace.

Weak

No user-network or cross-side value evidence in the available data.

LOW

Search Costs

Moderately relevant in a complex procurement category where customers compare fleet availability, service coverage, and terms.

Moderate

The available data lacks buyer-search-cost metrics, but the business is operationally complex and capital intensive.

Moderate

Overall Captivity Strength

Weighted assessment

Weak

No direct evidence of durable switching costs or network effects; brand and search costs may help, but not enough to create captivity on their own.

Low to Moderate

Exhibit 1: COMPETE data | Source: SEC EDGAR 2025 audited data; Derived ratios; known evidence gaps in Available filings
MetricValue

Revenue

$16.10B

Revenue (2)

$3.97B

Gross margin

38.2%

Market share

10%

Exhibit 2: COMPETE data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Economies of Scale Assessment

SCALE WITHOUT FULL CAPTIVITY

URI appears to have meaningful scale economics, but the durability of those economics depends on whether scale is paired with customer captivity. The company’s 2025 revenue of $16.10B and operating income of $3.97B indicate a large fixed-cost base is being spread across substantial volume, and the audited gross margin of 38.2% suggests good operating scale effect. However, the available data doesn't quantify fleet density, branch coverage, procurement advantage, or maintenance-cost curves versus peers, so the precise fixed-cost intensity can't be proven from the available facts...

See related analysis in

See related analysis in

See market size

market size & tam

runway vs. penetration

Market Growth Rate: +3.0% (Revenue growth YoY per deterministic ratio; proxy for current demand growth).

Market Growth Rate
+3.0%
Revenue growth YoY per deterministic ratio; proxy for current demand growth

Single most important takeaway. The non-obvious point is that URI is already a $16.10B revenue business with 24.7% operating margin and 31.0% FCF margin, which means the TAM question is not about proving a viable market, it's about how much additional share can be economically captured inside a market that's already large enough to support a scaled, highly profitable operator...

SegmentCurrent Size2028 ProjectedCAGRCompany Share

United Rentals total company revenue

$16.10B

+3.0% revenue growth YoY proxy

100% of company revenue

URI implied revenue per share

$255.15

$278.00 est. 2026

Industry positioning (context, not market share)

Rank 26 of 94

Upper-third industry placement

Exhibit 1: TAM data | Source: SEC EDGAR financial data; Derived ratios; Independent Institutional Analyst Data
MetricValue

Revenue

$16.10B

Revenue (2)

$3.97B

Revenue (3)

$4.993B

Revenue (4)

$255.15

Revenue (5)

24.7%

P/E

+3.0%

Revenue (6)

31.0%

Exhibit 2: TAM data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Bottom-Up Sizing Approach

METHODOLOGY

A bottom-up TAM for URI should be built from the revenue pool it can actually serve: branch network reach, fleet deployment intensity, customer mix, and rental utilization. Using the available filings, the only fully verifiable anchor is the company’s own run-rate scale, $16.10B of 2025 revenue, $3.97B of operating income, and $4.993B of free cash flow. That tells us URI already participates in a very large market, but it doesn't let us safely infer the full market pool without external market-revenue data...

Current Penetration and Runway

RUNWAY

URI’s current penetration can be discussed only relative to its own scale, because the available data doesn't provide external market share data. The best verifiable proxy is that the company produced $16.10B of 2025 revenue while maintaining a 19.0x P/E and 13.6x EV/EBITDA, which is consistent with a scaled incumbent rather than a niche player. The institutional survey’s industry rank of 26 of 94 further supports the idea that URI is already a top-tier participant in a broad industrial market...

URI Revenue Scale vs Growth Proxy

bar
periodRevenue / Revenue per ShareCompany Share Context
2024A
2025A16.1100
2026E278.0100
Current Growth Proxy3.0100
Exhibit 3: TAM analysis | Source: SEC EDGAR financial data; Derived ratios; Independent Institutional Analyst Data

See competitive position

See operations

See Quantitative Profile

supply chain

single points of failure

Lead Time Trend: Stable (Quarterly revenue was $4.23B at 2025-09-30 and $4.21B at 2025-12-31, indicating no obvious throughput disruption.) · Liquidity Buffer: 0.94 Current Ratio (Current assets of $3.61B vs current liabilities of $3.82B at 2025-12-31.).

Lead Time Trend
Stable
Quarterly revenue was $4.23B at 2025-09-30 and $4.21B at 2025-12-31, indicating no obvious throughput disruption.
Liquidity Buffer
0.94 Current Ratio
Current assets of $3.61B vs current liabilities of $3.82B at 2025-12-31.

Most important takeaway: URI’s supply chain is functioning efficiently enough to convert a $16.10B revenue base into a 38.2% gross margin and 31.0% free cash flow margin, which is the clearest evidence that logistics, maintenance, and fleet redeployment aren't presently creating friction...

Component/ServiceSubstitution Difficulty (Low/Med/High)Risk Level (Low/Med/High/Critical)Signal (Bullish/Neutral/Bearish)

Fleet OEMs / equipment procurement

HIGHHIGHBEARISH

Maintenance parts and consumables

MEDIUMHIGHNEUTRAL

Diesel / fuel and transport inputs

LOWMEDIUMNEUTRAL

Fleet refurbishment / repair vendors

MEDIUMMEDIUMNEUTRAL

Telematics / fleet software

LOWLOWBULLISH

Logistics / transport carriers

MEDIUMMEDIUMNEUTRAL
Exhibit 1: SUPPLY data | Source: Company 2025 10-K / 2025 annual EDGAR source data; supplier-level disclosures not provided
MetricValue

Revenue

$16.10B

Revenue (2)

38.2%

Gross margin

24.7%

Equity Value

$459.0M

Equity Value (2)

$3.82B

Exhibit 2: SUPPLY data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Concentration risk is hidden, but the balance-sheet and margin profile suggest no visible single-vendor breakdown today

CONCENTRATION

URI doesn't disclose named supplier concentration in the available data, so the biggest concentration risk can't be measured directly; that's itself a reporting gap for a capital-intensive rental operator. What we can say is that the operating model is not showing stress consistent with a major single-source failure: 2025 revenue was $16.10B, gross margin was 38.2%, and operating margin was 24.7%, implying the fleet, parts, maintenance, and redeployment chain is still absorbing demand without obvious breakage...

MetricValue

Equity Value

$14.30B

Free cash flow

$4.993B

Gross margin

38.2%

Gross margin (2)

31.0%

Exhibit 3: SUPPLY data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Geographic risk appears unquantified in the available data, but tariff and regional shock exposure should be assumed to be moderate-to-high

GEO RISK

The source data contains no disclosed sourcing-region or manufacturing-location split, so URI’s geographic dependency can't be measured precisely from audited facts. That said, a machinery-rental business with a $14.30B long-term debt load, $4.993B of free cash flow, and a fleet-dependent operating model is inherently exposed to regional disruptions affecting equipment availability, repair labor, and transport capacity. The absence of regional disclosure is important because it limits room to quantify whether the company is dependent on one country or one logistics corridor...

See operations

See risk assessment

See Quantitative Profile

catalyst map

forward calendar

United Rentals enters the catalyst window with a combination of operating momentum, balance-sheet debt load, and market sensitivity that can move the shares materially in either direction. The latest audited data show 2025 revenue of $16.10B, operating income of $3.97B, and net income of $2.49B, while the stock trades at $1141.59 as of Mar 24, 2026 with a $46.12B market cap. Against that backdrop, the main near- to medium-term debate is whether the company can convert its scale and 24.7% operating margin into sustained free cash flow and earnings growth while managing a debt-heavy capital structure. The forward setup is also shaped by the fact that URI already screens as expensive versus a simple earnings multiple framework, with a P/E of 19.0 on the deterministic outputs, yet still shows a 10.8% FCF yield and a 31.0% FCF margin. This panel shows what can re-rate the stock up or down from here, including execution, capital allocation, and any shift in end-market demand.

Operating execution and margin durability

The most immediate catalyst for United Rentals is whether it can keep translating top-line growth into high-quality operating scale effect. The audited data show 2025 revenue of $16.10B, gross profit of $6.14B, operating income of $3.97B, and net income of $2.49B, with quarterly revenue of $4.23B and quarterly operating income of $1.11B at 2025-09-30. That implies a 24.7% operating margin and a 38.2% gross margin, which are strong for a capital-intensive equipment-rental business and create room for earnings to compound even if revenue growth remains modest...

Free cash flow, buybacks, and capital allocation

Free cash flow is one of the clearest potential catalysts in URI because the deterministic model already shows $4.993B of free cash flow, a 31.0% FCF margin, and a 10.8% FCF yield. Those figures are important because they imply the company is generating meaningful cash relative to a $46.12B equity market value, even with a capital-intensive fleet and a balance sheet that carries $14.30B of long-term debt at 2025-12-31. The company’s cash and equivalents were only $459.0M at year-end 2025, so the market is likely to focus on ongoing cash conversion rather than absolute cash balances...

debt load, refinancing, and credit sensitivity

URI’s balance sheet is likely to remain a source of both support and scrutiny. The deterministic ratios show debt to equity of 1.59 and total liabilities to equity of 2.33, while current ratio is 0.94. At 2025-12-31, total liabilities were $20.90B against shareholders’ equity of $8.97B, and long-term debt stood at $14.30B...

Catalyst scoreboard

read first
CatalystWhy it mattersLatest data pointDirectional readMonitoring period

Operating margin resilience

Determines whether modest revenue growth still translates into EPS upside…

Operating margin 24.7%

Positive if sustained

Quarterly

Free cash flow conversion

Supports buybacks, debt service, and reinvestment…

Free cash flow $4.993B; FCF margin 31.0%

Positive if durable

Quarterly/Annual

debt load management

Affects refinancing risk and valuation multiples…

Long-term debt $14.30B; debt/equity 1.59…

Mixed

Quarterly

Share repurchases

Can boost EPS and revenue per share

Shares outstanding 63.1M at 2025-12-31

Positive if ongoing

Quarterly

Relative valuation re-rating

Can expand or compress the multiple

P/E 19.0; EV/EBITDA 13.6

Depends on estimates

Quarterly

Peer sentiment

Industrial peer multiples can influence URI…

Industry rank 26 of 94

Mixed

Monthly/Quarterly

Exhibit 1: CATALYSTS data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Key catalysts versus observed financial data

read first
ThemeEvidence from available dataImplicationNear-term catalystRisk if absent

Revenue growth

Revenue $16.10B in 2025; YoY growth +3.0%

Growth is steady but not explosive

Renewed demand acceleration

Multiple compression

Earnings power

EPS diluted $38.61; net income $2.49B

High earnings base can support per-share expansion…

Quarterly beats

EPS stagnation

Cash generation

Operating cash flow $5.190B

Strong internal funding capacity

CapEx discipline and buybacks

Cash conversion disappointment

Capital structure

Current ratio 0.94; total liabilities $20.90B…

Balance sheet needs monitoring

Refinancing clarity

Credit concern

Forward estimates

EPS 2026 estimate $47.50

Supports medium-term optimism

Estimate revisions higher

Estimate revisions lower

Book value growth

Book value/share est. 2026 $178.25

Signals ongoing capital compounding

Continued shareholder equity growth

Slower compounding

Exhibit 2: CATALYSTS data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

See risk assessment

See valuation

See related analysis in

street expectations

consensus vs. framework

Consensus appears to be pricing URI as a high-quality industrial compounder, not a high-growth story: the stock is at $1141.59 with a computed P/E of 19.0, EV/EBITDA of 13.6, and FCF yield of 10.8%, while audited 2025 revenue grew only +3.0% YoY. Our view is meaningfully more Long than the Street on long-term fair value, but we think the market is already discounting some of the durability that supports the premium multiple.

Current Price
$1141.59
Mar 24, 2026
Market Cap
~$71.06B
DCF Fair Value
$840.00
-26.4% versus the verified $1,141.59 close
vs Current
+362.9%
DCF implied

Most important takeaway. The non-obvious signal is that URI’s Street debate is likely centered on earnings durability rather than growth acceleration: audited 2025 revenue increased only +3.0% YoY, yet the company still produced $4.993B of free cash flow with a 31.0% FCF margin. That combination usually supports a premium valuation even when top-line growth looks mature.

MetricValue

Revenue

$16.10B

Revenue (2)

$3.97B

P/E

$38.61

EPS

+3.0%

DCF

$3,388.51

Fair value

$1141.59

Operating margin

24.7%

Operating margin (2)

27.8%

Exhibit 1: STREET data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Consensus vs. Our Thesis

STREET VS XVARY

STREET SAYS URI should be valued as a durable industrial compounder with modest top-line growth, high returns on capital, and continued support from buybacks. The factual backdrop is strong but mature: 2025 audited revenue was $16.10B, operating income was $3.97B, and diluted EPS was $38.61, while revenue growth was only +3.0% YoY. WE SAY the business quality is better than the market’s implied caution suggests...

MetricOur EstimateKey Driver of Difference

Revenue (next FY)

$16.10B

No verified Street consensus provided; we anchor to audited 2025 annual revenue…

EPS (latest annual)

$38.61

Computed from audited 2025 results; Street estimate series unavailable…

Operating margin

24.7%

Strong utilization / pricing discipline reflected in audited operating income…

Net margin

15.5%

Large scale and disciplined cost structure support earnings conversion…

FCF margin

31.0%

Operating cash flow of $5.19B and FCF of $4.993B indicate strong cash conversion…

Book debt load (D/E)

1.59

Higher debt load may temper Street willingness to assign a full-quality multiple…

Exhibit 2: STREET data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.
YearRevenue EstEPS EstGrowth %

2025

$3.7B

$10.27

+3.0%

2026

$10.27

Exhibit 3: STREET data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Estimate Revision Trends

NO VERIFIED STREET SERIES

We don't have a verified revision history in the supporting evidence, so the actual Street direction can't be quantified from this pane. That said, the latest audited results and institutional survey imply a likely debate around whether the company can sustain 24.7% operating margins and 27.8% ROE while revenue growth remains only +3.0%. The most plausible revision pressure points are EPS durability, buyback support, and debt load...

See valuation

See variant perception & thesis

See Earnings Scorecard

earnings scorecard

execution quality
TTM EPS
$38.61
Latest audited diluted EPS for 2025
Latest Quarter EPS
$10.91
2025-09-30 reported diluted EPS
FCF Margin
31.0%
Strong cash conversion support
PeriodEPSYoY ChangeSequential

2023-09

$10.29

2023-12

$10.01

-2.7%

2024-03

$10.27

-19.7%

2024-06

$9.54

+18.7%

2024-09

$10.70

+4.0%

+12.2%

2024-12

$10.47

+4.6%

-2.1%

Exhibit 1: SCORECARD data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings

Most important takeaway. URI’s earnings track is fundamentally strong, but the single most non-obvious feature is that the business is still producing $4.993B of free cash flow even with a 0.94 current ratio and $14.30B of long-term debt. That combination means the market is not questioning profitability so much as the durability of cash generation through the cycle and the balance-sheet sensitivity that comes with it.

QuarterEPS ActualRevenue Actual

2025-09-30

$10.91

$3.7B

Exhibit 2: SCORECARD data | Source: Company SEC EDGAR financial data; Source data
MetricValue

Net income

$2.49B

Net income (2)

$5.19B

Net income (3)

$4.993B

FCF margin was

31.0%

Equity Value

$14.30B

Equity Value (2)

$13.47B

Equity Value (3)

$3.61B

Equity Value (4)

$3.82B

Exhibit 3: SCORECARD data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Earnings Quality Remains Cash-Backed, Not Merely Accounting-Driven

QUALITY

URI’s earnings quality profile looks solid because cash generation comfortably exceeds reported profit. For 2025, the company produced $2.49B of net income, $5.19B of operating cash flow, and $4.993B of free cash flow, while the deterministic FCF margin was 31.0%. That spread is the hallmark of a business where earnings are being converted into cash at a healthy rate rather than being inflated by working-capital or non-cash accounting noise...

Revision Trends: No Revision Tape Provided, So Forward Momentum Must Be Inferred

REVISIONS

The Source data doesn't include a 90-day analyst revision series, so the revision trend can't be measured directly and should be treated as unavailable here. What we can say is that the company’s latest audited results show an earnings base that remains very strong: $16.10B of revenue, $3.97B of operating income, and $38.61 of diluted EPS in 2025. That backdrop usually reduces the need for large downward estimate resets unless utilization or pricing deteriorates...

See financial analysis

See street expectations

See Valuation

alternative data

signals

Overall Signal Score: 30/100 (Strong cash generation and valuation disconnect, partially offset by debt load/liquidity) · Long Signals: 7 (Alt data/quality/cash-flow positives outweigh near-term noise) · Short Signals: 4 (Balance-sheet tightness and cyclical sensitivity remain real).

Bullish Signals
7
Alt data/quality/cash-flow positives outweigh near-term noise
Bearish Signals
4
Balance-sheet tightness and cyclical sensitivity remain real
Data Freshness
Mar 24, 2026
Market data live; latest audited financials through 2025-12-31

Most important non-obvious takeaway: the strongest signal is not top-line growth but cash conversion. URI generated $4.993B of free cash flow on $16.10B of revenue, a 31.0% FCF margin that materially exceeds its 15.5% net margin, indicating the business is still converting earnings into cash at a rate that can support buybacks, debt service, and reinvestment even with only +3.0% revenue growth.

CategorySignalReadingTrendImplication

Alternative data

Hiring intensity / web demand / app downloads / patents…

n/a, no alternative-data feed provided in the available data…

N/A

Can't confirm operating momentum from jobs or web signals; rely on financials and market price…

Sentiment

Institutional quality

Safety Rank 3, Timeliness Rank 3, Financial Strength B+, Earnings Predictability 85…

STABLE

Middle-of-the-road quality profile; not defensive, but predictable enough for a cyclical industrial…

Sentiment (2)

Technical positioning

Technical Rank 2, Price Stability 40, Beta 1.60…

Constructive

Market can support the name when execution is steady, but swings can be sharp…

Fundamentals

Cash conversion

Free Cash Flow $4.993B; FCF Margin 31.0%; FCF Yield 10.8%

Positive

Core bull signal: cash generation is exceptionally strong relative to reported earnings…

Fundamentals (2)

Profitability

Gross Margin 38.2%; Operating Margin 24.7%; ROIC 13.7%

Fundamentals (3)

Liquidity

Current Ratio 0.94; Cash & Equivalents $459M; Current Liabilities $3.82B…

Deteriorating

Working-capital cushion is thin; a slowdown could pressure flexibility before earnings fully roll over…

Exhibit 1: SIGNALS data | Source: SEC EDGAR audited financials, derived ratios, live market data, and independent institutional survey

Alternative Data Signals: Limited Direct Feed, So Read-Through Matters More Than the Raw Count

ALT DATA

There's no direct alternative-data feed in the available data for job postings, web traffic, app downloads, or patent filings, so the pane shouldn't pretend to see a signal where none is observable. That said, the financial read-through is still informative: URI’s +3.0% revenue growth, paired with 38.2% gross margin and 31.0% free cash flow margin, implies the operating engine is producing cash without needing visible acceleration in external demand proxies...

Retail and Institutional Sentiment: Supportive, But Not Euphoric

SENTIMENT

Institutional sentiment is constructive but not extreme. The independent survey assigns URI a Technical Rank of 2, Safety Rank of 3, Timeliness Rank of 3, and Financial Strength B+, which is consistent with a stock that can be owned by quality-oriented investors without being classified as a top-tier defensive compounder. The Earnings Predictability score of 85 also suggests the name is viewed as relatively forecastable for a cyclical industrial...

Biggest caution: liquidity is tight enough that a cyclical slowdown could matter before solvency does. The current ratio is only 0.94, with $3.61B of current assets versus $3.82B of current liabilities at 2025-12-31, so URI is dependent on continued operating cash flow rather than a large cash buffer. That's manageable today because FCF is strong, but it's the first metric I would watch if demand softens.

CriterionResultStatus

Positive Net Income

Pass

Positive Operating Cash Flow

Fail

ROA Improving

Pass

Cash Flow > Net Income (Accruals)

Fail

Declining Long-Term Debt

Fail

Improving Current Ratio

Pass
Exhibit 2: SIGNALS data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL; computed deterministically

See risk assessment

See valuation

See Variant Perception & Thesis

management & leadership

execution + key-person risk

Management Score: 3.7 / 5 (Weighted average of 6-dimension scorecard; above-average but not top-tier).

Management Score
3.7 / 5
Weighted average of 6-dimension scorecard; above-average but not top-tier

Most important non-obvious takeaway: URI’s management signal is strongest where it's hardest to fake: cash conversion and per-share discipline. Free cash flow was $4.993B with a 31.0% FCF margin, while shares outstanding fell from 64.5M at 2025-06-30 to 63.1M at 2025-12-31. That combination suggests the team is more than growing earnings; it's converting them into buyback capacity and per-share compounding even as debt load stays elevated.

CEO and Executive Quality: Strong Operating Record, Missing Biographical Detail

ASSESSMENT: ABOVE-AVERAGE EXECUTION

From the audited 2025 results, management appears to be building rather than eroding competitive advantage. Revenue reached $16.10B in 2025, operating income was $3.97B, and net income was $2.49B, while gross margin held at 38.2% and operating margin at 24.7%. That's the profile of a team that's defending spread economics while running a large, scaled fleet business, not chasing volume at the expense of returns...

TitleBackgroundKey Achievement

CEO

n/a, not provided in Source data…

Drove 2025 revenue to $16.10B and operating income to $3.97B…

CFO

n/a, not provided in Source data…

Generated $5.19B operating cash flow in 2025…

Chief Operating Officer / Operations Lead…

n/a, not provided in Source data…

Maintained 24.7% operating margin at scale…

Chief Commercial / Fleet Officer

n/a, not provided in Source data…

Supported 38.2% gross margin through the cycle…

Exhibit 1: MGMT data | Source: SEC EDGAR / Source data (executive names and biographies not provided)
MetricValue

ROE

27.8%

ROIC

13.7%

Equity Value

$6.90B

Equity Value (2)

$7.12B

P/E

$830M

Exhibit 2: MGMT data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Governance: Adequate Oversight, But Board Independence Can't Be Verified From Available data

GOVERNANCE VIEW

The supplied data doesn't include board composition, committee membership, staggered-board status, poison pill terms, or shareholder-rights provisions, so independence and governance quality can't be verified directly. On the operational side, however, the 2025 record implies a management team under real discipline: debt load was meaningful, with debt-to-equity of 1.59 and total liabilities-to-equity of 2.33, yet returns stayed strong at ROE 27.8% and ROIC 13.7%. For investors, the key governance question is whether the board is effectively supervising balance-sheet expansion and acquisition/goodwill accumulation...

DimensionScoreEvidence Summary

Capital Allocation

4

2025 FCF was $4.993B, operating cash flow $5.19B, and shares outstanding fell from 64.5M (2025-06-30) to 63.1M (2025-12-31), indicating disciplined buybacks and cash conversion.

Communication

3

No guidance or earnings-call transcript is provided; only audited results are available. Visibility into forward execution, covenant posture, and capital priorities is limited.

Insider Alignment

2

Insider ownership %, Form 4 buys/sells, and named executive holdings aren't provided, so alignment can't be confirmed beyond the share-count decline.

Track Record

4

2025 revenue reached $16.10B, operating income $3.97B, and net income $2.49B with margins holding at 38.2% gross and 24.7% operating, showing strong delivery versus scale goals.

Strategic Vision

4

The pattern suggests a scale-and-return strategy: preserve spread economics, redeploy cash, and manage debt load. Goodwill at $7.12B implies acquisition activity, but the exact strategy is n/a.

Operational Execution

4

ROE was 27.8%, ROIC 13.7%, SG&A was 10.8% of revenue, and quarterly profits remained strong through 2025, indicating effective cost discipline and execution.

Exhibit 3: MGMT data | Source: SEC EDGAR Financial Data; Derived ratios; Independent Institutional Analyst Data; Source data narrative findings

See risk assessment

See operations

See Competitive Position

macro sensitivity

rates, fx, energy

Rate Sensitivity: High (Debt-to-equity 1.59; dynamic WACC 10.1%; market-calibrated implied WACC 23.6%) · Equity Risk Premium: 5.5% (Cost of equity 11.9% with risk-free rate 4.25%) · Cycle Phase: Late-cycle / mixed (VIX, credit spreads, yield curve, ISM, CPI inputs aren't populated in the available data).

Rate Sensitivity
High
Debt-to-equity 1.59; dynamic WACC 10.1%; market-calibrated implied WACC 23.6%
Equity Risk Premium
5.5%
Cost of equity 11.9% with risk-free rate 4.25%
Cycle Phase
Late-cycle / mixed
VIX, credit spreads, yield curve, ISM, CPI inputs aren't populated in the available data

Most important non-obvious takeaway. The clearest macro message is that URI’s balance sheet and cash engine make it survivable, but not immune: current ratio is only 0.94 while free cash flow is $4.993B and FCF margin is 31.0%...

base case

$1,008.00

versus reverse DCF implied WACC 23.6%...

bear case

$840.00

$2,224.71...

FX is a disclosure gap, not a proven risk lever. The available data contains no audited revenue-by-currency or hedging schedule, so any claim about transactional or translational FX exposure would be speculative. For now, the correct underwriting stance is to treat FX as secondary unless future filings show material non-USD revenue concentration or a meaningful unhedged foreign-currency cost base.

Commodity and Input Cost Exposure

n/a

URI’s commodity sensitivity can't be quantified from the available data because there's no audited breakdown of COGS by input category, no hedging disclosure, and no operating KPI set for fleet depreciation, parts, tires, fuel, steel, or other consumables. The only hard cost data available are cost of revenue of $9.96B in 2025 and gross margin of 38.2%, which tells us the company preserved attractive spread economics but not which input lines drove that outcome. Because this is a rental-heavy industrial platform, the practical macro question is whether cost inflation can be passed through to customers via higher rental rates...

Trade Policy and Tariff Risk

n/a

There's no audited tariff schedule, product-by-region exposure map, or China supply-chain dependency disclosure in the available data, so trade policy risk can't be quantified from primary data. For URI, the most relevant question would be whether imported fleet components, parts, or replacement equipment face tariff pressure that could raise capex or maintenance costs, but that linkage is here...

Demand Sensitivity to the Economic Cycle

CYCLE-LINKED

URI is economically tied to construction and industrial activity, but the available data doesn't provide a formal correlation to consumer confidence, GDP, housing starts, or ISM. The strongest supported proxy is the company’s own operating performance: 2025 revenue of $16.10B, operating income of $3.97B, and revenue growth of +3.0%. That profile suggests demand is cyclical but not volatile enough to require a collapse in macro indicators before the business feels pressure...

See Variant Perception & Thesis

See Valuation

quantitative profile

factor + mean reversion

Beta: 1.38 (WACC beta input from deterministic model; institutional survey beta is 1.60.).

Beta
1.38
WACC beta input from deterministic model; institutional survey beta is 1.60.

Most important takeaway: URI’s quantitative picture is dominated less by growth than by cash conversion and debt load capacity. The single most revealing metric is free cash flow margin of 31.0%, because it shows the business is converting a large share of revenue into cash even while the balance sheet carries $14.30B of long-term debt and current ratio remains only 0.94.

Takeaway. The available data doesn't include a numeric factor-score feed, so factor exposure must be inferred from fundamentals rather than treated as a scored signal. On that basis, URI most clearly reads as a quality-tilted industrial because ROE is 27.8%, ROIC is 13.7%, and free cash flow yield is 10.8%.

MetricValue

Equity Value

$459.0M

Equity Value (2)

$3.61B

Equity Value (3)

$3.82B

Market cap

$46.12B

Days to liquidate

$10M

Exhibit 1: QUANT data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Liquidity Profile

DATA LIMITED

URI’s liquidity profile is partially observable from the available data, but not fully quantifiable. The company ended 2025 with $459.0M in cash and equivalents, $3.61B in current assets, and $3.82B in current liabilities, so the business is not holding an oversized cash cushion relative to near-term obligations. What is most important for position sizing is that the provided data do not include average daily volume, bid-ask spread, institutional turnover, or a block-trade impact model...

Technical Profile

FACTUAL ONLY

The available data doesn't include price-history indicators needed to calculate or verify the 50 DMA/200 DMA position, RSI, MACD, or support/resistance levels. Those values are therefore and shouldn't be inferred from the current market price alone. What can be stated factually is that URI’s current market price is $1141.59 as of Mar 24, 2026, and the stock carries an institutional Technical Rank of 2 on a 1-to-5 scale where 1 is best...

URI Factor Exposure Proxy

bar
Momentum
50
Value
50
Quality
85
Size
80
Volatility
45
Growth
65
Exhibit 2: QUANT analysis | Source: Source data; proxy constructed from profitability, debt load, and compounding metrics

See Variant Perception & Thesis

See Financial Analysis

See Fundamentals

options & derivatives

sentiment gauge

This pane shows the evidence that matters for your URI decision, including the current signal, its limits, and the next checkpoint.

Most important non-obvious takeaway. The derivatives setup is being driven more by valuation disagreement than by an observed options tape: URI’s deterministic DCF fair value is $840.00 versus a live stock price of $1141.59, while the reverse DCF implies the market is effectively demanding a 23.6% WACC...

Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility

IV / RV

We don't have a live option-chain feed in the Source data, so the exact 30-day IV, IV rank, and realized-volatility spread can't be measured directly here. What we can say with confidence is that URI’s equity is already a high-delta, high-dollar-premium name: the stock trades at $1141.59, with a beta of 1.60 in the institutional survey, and the market-cap-based debt ratio used in WACC is only 0.31 even though book debt load is materially higher. That mix usually supports a richer volatility surface than the index, particularly around earnings or macro-sensitive industrial prints...

Unusual Options Activity and Positioning Signals

FLOW

No live options flow, strike-by-strike open interest, or trade tape was included in the Source data, so there's no verified unusual activity to report for URI. That said, the stock’s fundamentals imply the types of structures institutional investors would typically prefer: long-dated calls or call spreads if they want to express upside in a cash-generative industrial, and protective puts or put spreads if they want to hedge the levered balance-sheet profile...

MetricValue

Free cash flow

$4.993B

Free cash flow (2)

31.0%

Equity Value

$459.0M

Equity Value (2)

$14.30B

Exhibit 1: DERIVS data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Short Interest and Squeeze Risk

SI

Short interest, days to cover, and cost-to-borrow data aren't present in the Source data, so squeeze risk can't be quantified directly. Based on the available fundamentals, URI doesn't look like a classic squeeze candidate: the company produced $4.993B of free cash flow in 2025, maintained a 31.0% FCF margin, and reported $459.0M of cash against $14.30B of long-term debt. That profile is usually more consistent with a premium-quality cyclical than with a balance-sheet stress story that attracts persistent short sellers...

Fund TypeDirectionNotable Names

HF

Long

MF

Long

Pension

Long

HF (2)

Options

MF (2)

Long

Illinois Tool…, Carrier Global, Otis Worldwide (peer-set context)

Exhibit 2: DERIVS data | Source: Independent Institutional Analyst Data; no 13F issuer-level holdings were provided in the Source data

Biggest caution. The main risk for this pane is that we are missing the actual option-chain data, so the key derivatives metrics remain. That matters because URI’s stock price is already $1141.59, and without strike/expiry, open interest, or short-interest data we can't tell whether the market is positioned for a modest earnings move or a much larger repricing tied to macro industrial demand.

See Valuation

See Fundamentals

See Macro Sensitivity

governance & accounting

quality control

Governance Score: C (Balanced operating quality, but governance disclosure is incomplete and debt load/liquidity aren'table) · Accounting Quality Flag: Watch (Strong cash generation, but thin liquidity, elevated debt, and large goodwill merit scrutiny).

Governance Score
C
Balanced operating quality, but governance disclosure is incomplete and debt load/liquidity aren'table
Accounting Quality Flag
Watch
Strong cash generation, but thin liquidity, elevated debt, and large goodwill merit scrutiny

The most non-obvious takeaway is that URI’s accounting picture is stronger than its governance disclosure picture: the company produced $4.993B of free cash flow and a 31.0% FCF margin, yet the available data provides no board, insider, or compensation detail to test oversight quality. In other words, the earnings engine looks real, but the governance layer remains largely opaque.

Board oversight can't be scored rigorously from the available data because no DEF 14A director roster, committee assignments, or tenure data are included. That means the independence test, committee check, and board-refresh assessment remain unresolved rather than favorable.

Shareholder Rights Snapshot

ADEQUATE / n/a

URI’s shareholder-rights profile can't be fully validated from the available data because the necessary DEF 14A and charter/bylaw details are absent. Based on the data available here, poison pill status, classified-board status, dual-class structure, voting standard, proxy access, and proposal history are all n/a. From an investor-protection perspective, that creates a practical problem: the market is being asked to underwrite a large, levered industrial franchise without the basic governance architecture that would tell us whether minority holders have strong protections...

Accounting Quality Deep-Dive

WATCH

On the evidence provided, URI’s accounting quality looks solid but not pristine. The strongest support is cash conversion: deterministic outputs show $5.19B of operating cash flow and $4.993B of free cash flow, alongside a 31.0% FCF margin and 10.8% FCF yield. That's a good sign that reported earnings are backed by cash rather than unusually aggressive accruals...

DimensionScore (1-5)Evidence Summary

Capital Allocation

3

Shares outstanding fell from 64.5M to 63.1M, supporting per-share metrics, but the specific capital-return mechanism is n/a and is therefore only partially verifiable.

Strategy Execution

5

Revenue reached $16.10B, operating income $3.97B, and net income $2.49B in 2025, indicating very strong execution on the operating model.

Communication

2

The available data explicitly lacks management/board/insider evidence and contains no proxy-statement detail, leaving transparency and disclosure quality difficult to assess.

Culture

3

Consistent quarterly profitability suggests operational discipline, but there's no direct evidence on employee culture, retention, or incentive tone.

Track Record

4

2025 margins were strong: gross margin 38.2%, operating margin 24.7%, and net margin 15.5%, with strong cash conversion.

Alignment

2

No CEO pay ratio, long-term incentive design, insider ownership, or Form 4 data is provided, so alignment can't be confirmed from the available data.

Exhibit 1: GOVERNANCE data | Source: Authoritative Source data; governance process evidence limited; management evidence gaps noted

See Earnings Scorecard

See What Breaks the Thesis

See related analysis in

value framework

greenwald / qarp

URI screens as a high-quality, cash-generative industrial compounder trading on a valuation that looks inexpensive relative to its reported earnings and free cash flow, but not cheap on balance-sheet debt load or cyclicality-adjusted risk. The framework below shows a clear pass on most Graham-style quality checks, while the main debate is whether the market is correctly discounting cyclicality, fleet economics, and the durability of 2025’s $4.993B free cash flow.

Graham Score
4/7
Passes 4 of 7 classic criteria based on FY2025 data
Buffett Quality Score
B
Strong economics, but debt load and moat proof remain incomplete
PEG Ratio
0.57
19.0x P/E vs 3-year EPS CAGR of 25.1%
Margin of Safety
78.4%
$(3,388.51 fair value vs $840.00 price)

Most important non-obvious takeaway: URI’s value case is driven less by headline revenue growth and more by cash conversion quality. The most telling metric is the 31.0% free cash flow margin, which turns a relatively modest +3.0% revenue growth profile into a valuation profile that can support a far higher intrinsic value than the current $840.00 share price implies.

CriterionThresholdActual ValuePass/Fail

Adequate size

Market cap > $2B

$46.12B market cap

Strongly above threshold

PASS

Strong financial condition

Current ratio > 2.0

0.94 current ratio

FAIL

Earnings stability

Positive earnings in each of last 10 years…

n/a full 10-year streak not provided…

n/a

Dividend record

Uninterrupted dividend history for 20 years…

n/a dividend history not provided…

n/a

Earnings growth

Growth over 7 years

3-year EPS CAGR +25.1% (survey) and FY2025 EPS $38.61…

PASS

Moderate P/E

P/E < 15x

19.0x P/E

FAIL
Exhibit 1: VALUEFR data | Source: Company 10-K FY2025; Derived ratios; Live market data (Mar 24, 2026)

Takeaway. URI passes the size and growth portions of Graham’s framework, but it fails the conservative balance-sheet and valuation tests, which is exactly what you would expect from a leveraged, high-ROE rental platform. The score is therefore not a classic Graham bargain score; it's a quality-growth score that requires the investor to underwrite cash-flow durability rather than low multiples.

MetricValue

Metric

4/5

Free cash flow

$4.993B

FCF margin

31.0%

Equity Value

$368M

Equity Value (2)

$250M

P/E

$5.19B

Cash flow

$14.30B

Operating margin

24.7%

Exhibit 2: VALUEFR data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Buffett Qualitative Checklist

QUALITY LENS

URI is a business that's understandable at a high level because it rents equipment, monetizes utilization, and earns through pricing discipline and fleet productivity; I would score that 4/5. The long-term outlook is also attractive because the company generated $4.993B of free cash flow in 2025 and sustained a 31.0% FCF margin, which suggests durable economics even in an asset-heavy model. Management quality looks reasonably strong, but not pristine, so I would score it 4/5...

MetricValue

Volatility

$1141.59

DCF

$3,388.51

Equity Value

$14.30B

FCF above

$4.0B

Exhibit 3: VALUEFR data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

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See variant perception & thesis

company history

historical analogies

URI’s inflection points are less about a single founding story and more about the transition from a cyclical equipment lessor into a cash-generating industrial platform. The most useful historical analogies are companies that paired asset intensity with high returns on capital, used debt load to amplify equity compounding, and preserved margin discipline through mid-cycle slowdowns. In that frame, URI today looks closer to a mature industrial compounder with cyclical exposure than to a pure-growth franchise or a distressed cyclical.

FAIR VALUE
$840.00
-26.4% versus the verified $1,141.59 close
REVENUE
$3.7B
2025 audited revenue
FCF
$4.993B
FCF margin 31.0%
OPER MGN
24.7%
2025 audited operating margin

Most important takeaway. URI’s history is best understood as a levered industrial compounder, not a simple cyclical rental name: 2025 operating cash flow was $5.19B and free cash flow was $4.993B, while long-term debt rose to $14.30B. That combination explains why the market can assign a premium multiple even with only +3.0% revenue growth YoY.

Analog CompanyEra / EventThe ParallelWhat Happened NextImplication for URI

Caterpillar (mid-cycle industrial leader)

2010s-2020s capex/renewal cycles

Asset-heavy economics, debt load to construction and industrial demand, and emphasis on cash conversion rather than headline growth…

Premium periods followed sustained free-cash-flow generation and disciplined capital returns; multiples expanded when cycle durability improved…

URI may deserve a premium when cash conversion stays near 31.0% FCF margin and margins hold, but the multiple will compress if cycle durability weakens…

United Parcel Service (capital-intensive compounder)

Late-cycle margin and pricing focus

A large network business where execution quality and pricing discipline mattered more than unit growth…

Investors rewarded the business when margins and returns stayed high, but penalized it when volumes slowed and debt load to the cycle became visible…

URI’s 24.7% operating margin and 27.8% ROE fit the profile of a quality operator that still needs cycle support to sustain valuation…

Otis Worldwide (mature industrial re-rate)

Post-separation premium multiple regime

A mature industrial platform that traded on earnings predictability, cash flow, and shareholder returns…

As predictability improved, investors accepted a steadier multiple even with moderate growth…

URI’s Earnings Predictability of 85 and share count decline to 63.1M support a similar rerating story, though URI is more cyclical and more levered…

Illinois Tool Works (high-ROIC industrial model)

Long-run compounding through disciplined capital allocation…

Strong returns on capital plus buybacks drove per-share compounding despite moderate top-line growth…

Shareholder returns and steady execution compounded value over time…

URI’s 13.7% ROIC, 19.0 P/E, and falling share count suggest the market may be valuing per-share compounding more than pure revenue growth…

Ashtead Group (rental-platform analog)

Multi-year rental penetration and scale-up…

Rental economics scale well when utilization, fleet discipline, and pricing remain strong…

Scale and buybacks can create long runway, but downturns quickly expose debt load and fleet intensity…

URI’s 0.94 current ratio and $14.30B debt make the analogy useful, but it also shows the need for continued cash generation to avoid valuation risk…

Exhibit 1: TIMELINE data | Source: SEC EDGAR audited 2025 financials; derived ratios; independent institutional analyst data

Interpretation. The strongest analogs aren't low-debt load defensives; they are industrial platforms that earned premium valuations by compounding free cash flow through cycles. URI’s 13.6x EV/EBITDA and 31.0% FCF margin make it look like a quality cyclical, but its $14.30B debt load means the market will continue to judge it on durability rather than just current earnings.

MetricValue

Revenue growth

+3.0%

Operating margin

24.7%

Operating margin (2)

15.5%

Equity Value

$14.30B

P/E

19.0x

EV/EBITDA

13.6x

Revenue

$16.10B

Revenue (2)

31.0%

Exhibit 2: TIMELINE data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Cycle Position: Mature but Still Compounding

MATURE / LATE-CYCLE

URI appears to be in the Maturity phase of its industry cycle: growth is positive but not explosive, with revenue growth of +3.0% YoY, while profitability remains strong at 24.7% operating margin and 15.5% net margin. That combination is classic for a large industrial platform that has moved beyond early adoption and now depends on execution, pricing discipline, and capital allocation to keep compounding. The balance sheet and market response reinforce that view...

Recurring Playbook: Protect Margin, Buy Back Shares, Let Cash Flow Do the Work

HISTORICAL PATTERN

URI’s recurring historical pattern is a disciplined response to cycle noise: preserve margins, convert earnings into cash, and use excess cash to support per-share compounding. The 2025 audited results show this clearly, with $5.19B in operating cash flow, $4.993B in free cash flow, and share count declining to 63.1M by year-end from 64.5M at 2025-06-30. That's exactly the pattern investors look for in mature industrial compounders that want to maintain premium valuation through volatility...

See fundamentals

See Valuation

See Earnings Scorecard

appendix & sources

sources · methodology

How we source the tape, verify levels, and align this report with XVARY deep-dive standards.

Sources: SEC filings, company disclosures, market data vendors, and sources cited in the sections above. For investment presentation use only.