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what it is
Upstart uses software to match people who want loans with banks willing to fund them.
how it gets paid
FY 2025 total revenue was ~$1.04B (Form 8-K, Feb 10, 2026). Revenue from fees was ~$950M—disaggregated mainly as platform & referral fees vs. servicing fees in the filing tables.
why it's growing
FY 2025 revenue grew 64% vs. FY 2024 (company release). Q4 2025 revenue was $296M, up 35% vs. Q4 2024—always label whether a percentage is full-year or single-quarter.
what just happened
Latest reported quarter (Q4 2025): revenue $296M; diluted EPS $0.17. FY 2025 diluted EPS was $0.45 vs. $(1.44) in FY 2024.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~113x trailing P/E on FY2025 GAAP EPS $0.45 (price moves daily)
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
FY2025 diluted EPS $0.45 (GAAP) vs. $(1.44) FY2024
xvary composite: 39/100 — weak
What they do
Upstart uses software to match people who want loans with banks willing to fund them.
The edge is data and speed. Upstart says its models use more than 2,500 variables and 82 million repayment events, while 92% of loans are fully automated. That means you get a loan decision with less human friction, and partner banks get a cheaper approval machine.
How they make money
~$1.04B
FY 2025 total revenue · +64% vs. FY 2024 (Form 8-K, Feb 10, 2026)
Platform & referral fees, net
$793M
FY25
Servicing & other fees, net
$157M
FY25
Interest & fair-value items (net)
~$94M
FY25
The products that matter
ai-powered loan origination
Personal Loans
up to $75,000 per loan
this is the flagship product, offering loans up to $75,000 and serving as the main test of whether Upstart's underwriting can beat traditional credit scoring at scale.
core product
car loan refinancing marketplace
Auto Refinance
expansion lane · not the ~64% FY co. print
Company-wide FY revenue grew about ~64% on this page—the auto line is the expansion bet, not proof the auto segment alone printed that vs. prior year rate unless the filing says so.
expansion bet
revolving credit product
Cash Line
verify on IR before treating as live P&L
Management discusses new credit products on earnings calls; do not book revenue until filings confirm scale. Personal loans, auto, and HELOC remain the disclosed core.
new category
Key numbers
$1.9B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so creditors matter almost as much as shareholders when debt equals 44% of capital.
2.6
beta
Beta → stock volatility versus the market → so your ride is about 2.6 times rougher than the market's average move.
$1.0B
annual revenue (FY · feed)
Matches the “last year” line in basics. Real scale even though the equity is valued at only about $2B.
~4%
GAAP op. margin FY25
FY 2025 income from operations ~$42.6M on ~$1,044M revenue (~4%) per the same 8-K—Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22% in the narrative (non-GAAP).
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $1.9B (44% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for UPST right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
Q4 + FY 2025 · Feb 10, 2026
Q4 2025 revenue $296M · diluted EPS $0.17 · FY 2025 EPS $0.45
Source: Upstart Form 8-K (Exhibit 99.1) for Q4 and FY ended Dec 31, 2025. FY revenue ~$1.04B (+64%). Compare non-GAAP EBITDA metrics in the release if you are benchmarking operating leverage.
$296M
Q4 revenue
$0.17
Q4 diluted EPS
22%
Q4 Adj. EBITDA margin
the number that mattered
FY 2025 flipped to GAAP profitability ($0.45 diluted EPS) while scaling revenue 64%—credit performance and funding markets still set the ceiling.
source: Upstart Holdings Form 8-K (Q4/FY 2025), filed Feb 10, 2026 · ir.upstart.com
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is funding-market dependence for ai-underwritten consumer credit.
med
funding dries up before demand does
Upstart needs buyers for the loans its platform originates. If private credit or bank partners pull back, revenue growth can stall fast even if borrower demand stays healthy.
This pressure reaches both major revenue lines: $531M of platform fees and $469M of interest income.
med
the model underwrites worse than advertised
The whole story rests on ai approving better loans than traditional scores. If loss performance disappoints, partner trust drops and the software premium disappears with it.
Contribution margin already fell from 61% to 53%. That is not proof of failure, but it is proof the economics are not coasting.
med
bank charter ambition invites heavier oversight
A national bank charter could reduce dependence on third-party funding. It would also bring a much stricter regulatory and capital framework.
That is a lot of process for a $2B company already carrying $1.9B of long-term debt.
med
too many moving pieces at once
Cash Line launched in early 2026, and co-founder Paul Gu is set to become ceo in may 2026. New products plus a leadership transition is a busy time to prove a turnaround.
With price stability at 5/100 and beta at 2.44, execution misses do not stay quiet for long.
You own a business with 5/100 price stability, 15/100 earnings predictability, and $1.9B of debt. If the funding base wobbles, the equity will feel it fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
whether contribution margin holds above 53%
This is the cleanest operating signal on the page. If the margin keeps sliding from the current 53%, growth is getting more expensive and the recovery story gets weaker.
calendar
may 2026 ceo transition
Paul Gu taking over as ceo is not a side note. You want to see strategic continuity, not a reset, while the lending model is still being re-proven.
metric
how much of the business stays fee-heavy
Platform fees of $531M versus $469M of interest income is the key mix question. More fee revenue means more marketplace economics. More interest income means more balance-sheet exposure.
risk
bank charter and funding-market updates
A charter could widen funding options, but it also raises the regulatory burden. Until there is clarity, every funding headline matters more than it would for a normal software stock.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect a smooth earnings path here.
risk rank
4
that means it ranks as safer than about 20% of stocks. translation: most stocks are calmer.
price stability
5 / 100
this is a volatility score, not a compliment. The stock tends to move like a rumor with a ticker.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for UPST is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$51
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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