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what it is
Upbound lets people rent electronics, appliances, computers, and furniture, then own them after fixed payments.
how it gets paid
Last year Upbound made $4.7B in revenue. Core U.S. was the main engine at $2.0B, or 43% of sales.
why it's growing
FY 2025 revenue is tracking near the company’s guided ~$4.6B–$4.75B range (Q3 2025 release). The old “$3.5B up 200%” line was corrupted feed text.
what just happened
Q3 2025 (reported Oct 30, 2025): revenue ~$1.16B (+9% vs. prior-year quarter); non-GAAP diluted EPS ~$1.00 vs. ~$0.98 consensus.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
4.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
9.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Upbound lets people rent electronics, appliances, computers, and furniture, then own them after fixed payments.
Upbound sells you ownership in small pieces. That is lease-to-own: pay over time, then keep the item, or return it if you quit. With 2,308 stores and four segments, your shopping options and payment history keep pulling you back.
How they make money
$4.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.7% last year
Core U.S.
$2.0B
+3.5%
Acima
$1.8B
+12.0%
Mexico
$0.5B
+7.0%
Franchising
$0.4B
+1.0%
The products that matter
lease-to-own retail operations
Merchandise Sales
$4.0B revenue · 85% of sales
it is the core business at $4.0B, which means 85% of company revenue still depends on customers making payments on household goods and electronics.
the core engine
fees and related services
Services & Other
$470M revenue · supporting segment
this segment adds $470M in annual revenue, but it is still small next to the $4.0B merchandise operation that drives the story.
smaller profit lever
Key numbers
$4.7B
ttm revenue
You are looking at a company with about $1B of market value and $4.7B of annual sales. That mismatch is the setup.
4.3x
trailing p/e
You are paying 4.3 times trailing earnings. Cheap only works if earnings stay near $4.10.
9.3%
dividend yield
That is about $1.64 a share at $17.64. The stock has to fall a lot before the cash stops mattering.
$1.6B
long debt
Debt is 61% of capital, so a bad year bites harder than the yield looks.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $1.6B (61% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.2% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in UPBD 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,750.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat est.
Q3 2025: revenue ~$1.16B (+9%); non-GAAP diluted EPS ~$1.00 vs. ~$0.98 consensus.
Source: Upbound Group Q3 2025 materials (investor.upbound.com, Oct 30, 2025). FY 2025 non-GAAP EPS guidance was tightened to ~$4.05–$4.15 on the same print.
$1.16B
Q3 revenue
$1.00
non-GAAP EPS
+9%
Q3 rev. growth
the number that mattered
Credit quality and Acima charge-off trends mattered as much as the EPS beat—management called out underwriting tightening in 2025 commentary.
-
upbound group’s shares remain out of favor with investors, falling nearly 40% in 2025 to five-year lows.the rentto-own stalwart’s core unbanked and underbanked typically earning between $25,000 and $60,000 annually are being squeezed by the cumulative toll of inflation on essentials such as food and energy. because this demographic often lives paycheck to paycheck and relies on alternative financial services due to limited credit access, higher prices have exhausted their disposable income and reduced confidence, making discretionary big-ticket purchases a tough sell. a ‘‘choppy macro backdrop’’ has shifted upbound’s strategic focus from aggressive expansion to rigorous credit quality.
-
in the acima segment, the environment triggered a spike in lease charge-offs in the third quarter, and they were projected to peak at 10% in late 2025.
-
this will be particularly true among new e-commerce customers.in response, management implemented drastic underwriting tightening over the summer months to filter out high-risk profiles.
-
the stock’s volatility was on display after the shares plummeted following a lowered full-year outlook.this was attributed to margin compression at acima and persistent revenue weakness at rent-a-center.
-
to right the ship, upbound is accelerating a digital transformation, highlighted by a 40% revenue surge in its brigit financial wellness app.central to this effort is an ai-powered ‘‘leasability’’ engine that lets customers shop at any retailer by using the app to determine approval limits and pay via a virtual tap-tolease card. furthermore, the company is using projected $150 million in tax savings to reduce leverage and protect its dividend. upbound shares currently offer a compelling entry point for deep value investors as the price remains depressed near historical lows.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is higher lease charge-offs at acima.
high
Acima charge-offs stay elevated
management already said lease charge-offs spiked in the third quarter. if underwriting changes do not fix that, the digital growth story turns into a credit loss story.
last quarter net margin was 1.1%. there is very little cushion if losses stay high.
high
the customer stays under pressure
UPBD's core customer typically earns $25,000–$60,000 a year. when food, rent, and utilities rise, lease payments get harder to prioritize.
85% of revenue comes from merchandise sales, so broad consumer stress hits the main engine.
med
regulatory scrutiny of lease-to-own economics
this business model lives under a brighter spotlight than ordinary retail. pricing, disclosures, collections, and customer treatment can all attract attention.
compliance costs or rule changes would pressure a business that only keeps 6.0% of revenue as profit.
med
digital growth scales bad underwriting instead of good growth
e-commerce revenue grew 40%, and management is leaning into an ai-powered leasability engine. if approval quality is weak, growth just moves the problem online faster.
the upside case needs digital growth and better credit quality at the same time, not one without the other.
with 85% of revenue tied to merchandise and only a 6.0% net margin, UPBD does not have much room for underwriting mistakes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
Acima charge-offs next quarter
this is the fastest way to tell whether the underwriting tightening is working or whether the problem is still spreading.
metric
net margin recovery from 1.1%
a business trading at 4.3x earnings needs proof that last quarter was a trough, not the new normal.
trend
e-commerce growth quality
40% digital growth sounds good. you need to know whether it comes with better approvals or just more future write-offs.
calendar
next outlook reset
after a lowered full-year outlook, the next earnings call matters more than usual. you are listening for margin, charge-offs, and any sign Rent-A-Center has stabilized.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak: analysts do not see a clean near-term trend yet.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. you are not in a bunker stock, but this is not a total chaos story either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. translation: the chart is not giving you an obvious rescue signal.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings predictability is weak. this company can beat estimates and still make you uncomfortable.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
130 buyers vs. 132 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 54.4M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$15
$45
$18
current price
$30
target midpoint · +70% from current · 3-5yr high: $50 (+185% · 33% ann'l return)
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