Start here if you're new
what it is
Upstream Bio is testing one antibody drug for severe inflammatory lung and sinus diseases.
how it gets paid
Revenue is collaboration income only: Q3 2025 $0.683M; nine months 2025 ~$2.19M (Form 10-Q / 8-K ex-99.1, Nov 5, 2025). There is no multi-product revenue split like the old table claimed.
what just happened
Q3 2025 net loss $33.7M on $683K collaboration revenue. Cash + short-term investments ~$372.4M at Sep 30, 2025—runway is the real balance-sheet story, not fake segment revenue rows.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
-$5.58 fy2024 eps est
$2M fy2024 rev est
n/m operating margin — clinical-stage; ratios distort on ~$2M sales
~$499M market cap
What they do
Upstream Bio is testing one antibody drug for severe inflammatory lung and sinus diseases.
The whole story is verekitug. It is the only known antagonist in clinical development targeting the TSLP receptor, according to the company description in the source data. You are betting that one differentiated target across two Phase II trials can matter more than the fact this company has just 52 employees and an estimated $2 million of 2024 revenue.
How they make money
Collaboration revenue
Q3 2025 $0.683M · nine months 2025 $2.186M · SEC 8-K ex-99.1 (Nov 5, 2025)
Collaboration revenue (Q3 2025)
$0.683M
+12.5%
Collaboration revenue (nine months 2025)
$2.186M
+24.4%
The products that matter
phase 2 antibody program
Verekitug
lead asset · chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps
it's the only clinical asset disclosed here, and it's carrying a ~$499M market cap against collaboration revenue still measured in single-digit millions per year.
single asset
early research pipeline
Research Programs
preclinical work · thin disclosure
the rest of the pipeline is early, and the business still produced only about $2M in trailing revenue. That's not diversification. That's context.
optionality, not proof
Key numbers
-$5.58
FY2024 EPS est
EPS (earnings per share → profit or loss for each share → so what: each share is still carrying a projected ~$5.58 loss in 2024).
$2.19M
9M 2025 collaboration
Nine-month collaboration revenue was ~$2.19M in the Q3 2025 10-Q table—still tiny versus equity value.
n/m
operating margin
On ~$2M revenue, a headline operating-margin % is misleading—operations are still dominated by R&D and clinical spend, not a commercial engine.
~$13M
total liabilities
Sep 30, 2025 balance sheet: total liabilities ~$12.6M—mostly payables and leases, not a big term-loan overhang. Cash runway matters more.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- long-term debt ~$12.6M total liabilities (Sep 30, 2025)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for UPB right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
clinical burn
Q3 2025: collaboration revenue $0.683M; net loss $33.7M.
Nine-month 2025 net loss ~$101.0M on ~$2.19M collaboration revenue (SEC 10-Q / 8-K ex-99.1, Nov 5, 2025). Prior segment revenue splits on this page were not filing-backed.
$0.683M
Q3 revenue
−$33.7M
Q3 net loss
$372M
cash + ST inv.
the number that mattered
Cash + short-term investments ~$372.4M at quarter end—management says that funds planned operations through 2027.
source: SEC — Upstream Bio 8-K ex-99.1 & 10-Q (Nov 5, 2025)
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Phase 2 failure for verekitug in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.
high
Phase 2 readout disappoints
This is a one-asset story. If verekitug misses on efficacy, safety, or commercial relevance, the current $499M equity value loses its anchor fast.
directly threatens most of the current valuation
high
cash burn forces dilution
Nine-month 2025 net loss ~$101M on ~$2.2M collaboration revenue means funding and dilution risk stay real even with ~$372M cash and short-term investments.
more capital raises can dilute your ownership
med
crowded inflammatory-disease competition
The TSLP and adjacent inflammation landscape already includes better-funded players like Regeneron and AstraZeneca. Even good data does not guarantee commercial leverage.
can cap peak value and reduce partnership power
med
thin operating history
There is no long record of commercial execution, margin stability, or capital allocation to lean on here. You are underwriting management and data with limited historical proof.
harder to handicap downside with normal operating metrics
a failed readout would hit the core of the thesis, while continued burn could dilute you before the science has time to recover.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
VIBRANT data at AAAAI 2026
Adjusted efficacy data for verekitug is expected in late February or early March 2026. That's the event the stock is built around.
cash
losses versus runway
The annual loss was $135.8M. Watch whether new filings suggest burn is accelerating or management still has time before the next raise.
competition
how differentiated verekitug really is
Management can talk mechanism all day. You need evidence that the data can stand out in a field already crowded with larger players.
timeline
March 19, 2026 earnings update
Ignore cosmetic EPS noise. Focus on trial timing, cash runway, and anything that shifts the probability tree around verekitug.
Analyst rankings
average price target
$52.25
At $30.43, analysts see upside if the clinical story works. in human-speak: the street likes the setup, but it's underwriting the data, not the current business.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for UPB is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$30
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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