XVARY Composite Score
61
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
United Fire Group sells business, home, auto, and life insurance through independent agencies across the U.S.
How it gets paid
Last year United Fire made ~$1.35B in revenue. commercial property and casualty was the main engine at ~$0.83B, or 64% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 9% last year. FY2025 underwriting + investment income combined for record-era profitability—diluted GAAP EPS ~$4.48 is the headline anchor for the ~8× multiple.
What just happened
Q4 2025: diluted GAAP EPS ~$1.45 · NWP ~$309.7M · combined ratio 92.3%.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
8.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.9% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 61/100 — average
What They Do
United Fire Group sells business, home, auto, and life insurance through independent agencies across the U.S.
Insurance moat → local agents and underwriting discipline → you get customers who renew before they shop every carrier. UFCS runs this through independent agencies with roughly a $0.9B market cap against ~$1.3B of net written premium, so even modest execution shows up fast.
How They Make Money
~$1.35B
FY2025 net written premium · +9% YoY (net earned premium ~$1.29B, +~10%)
commercial property and casualty
~$0.83B
personal lines
~$0.28B
assumed reinsurance
~$0.08B
life insurance and annuities
~$0.10B
The Products That Matter
Writes and renews insurance policies
Property & Casualty Insurance
~$1.29B FY2025 net earned premium
FY2025 net earned premium ~$1.29B (+~10%). This is the whole story — if underwriting slips here, nothing else on the page can hide it.
core
Invests the insurance float
Net Investment Income
$111M · 8% of shown revenue
Investment income rose to ~$97.5M in FY2025—boring until you remember it helps offset claims volatility.
stability lever
Key Numbers
$4.48
FY2025 diluted GAAP EPS
~$1.18B
FY2024 net earned prem.
Prior-year earned premium baseline from the Q4/FY2025 earnings tables (GlobeNewswire release, Feb 10, 2026).
8.5x
trailing p/e
2.2%
dividend yield
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $117M (11% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
strong FY2025 close
Q4 2025: diluted GAAP EPS ~$1.45 · NWP ~$309.7M (+11% YoY) · combined ratio 92.3%
FY2025 diluted GAAP EPS was ~$4.48 vs. ~$2.39 prior year; NWP ~$1.35B (+9%). Net earned premium ~$341M in Q4 (+11% YoY). Source: United Fire Group Q4/FY2025 release.
~$341M
Q4 net earned prem.
~$1.45
Q4 GAAP EPS
92.3%
Q4 combined ratio
the number that mattered
FY2025 underwriting + investment income combined for record-era profitability—diluted GAAP EPS ~$4.48 is the headline anchor for the ~8× multiple.
source: United Fire Group Q4/FY2025 release (GlobeNewswire, Feb 10, 2026) · SEC filings
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk here is catastrophe losses overwhelming underwriting gains. UFCS sells protection for uncertain events. That business looks smart right up until the storms arrive.
High
Catastrophe loss exposure
Management is targeting a sub-5% catastrophe loss ratio for 2026. A severe storm or wildfire season would blow through that target fast.
Direct pressure on underwriting profit, book value, and EPS.
Med
Commodity pricing pressure
There is no moat. UFCS competes with Kinsale Capital, HCI Group, and Hilltop in lines where customers can move if price or terms get worse.
Premium growth can stall while margins get squeezed.
Med
Improvement may be cyclical, not structural
Return on equity improved to 13.7% from 2%. That is encouraging. It is also exactly the kind of rebound investors over-annualize in insurance.
If profitability slips back toward prior levels, the cheap multiple may be justified instead of attractive.
UFCS is a bet that underwriting stays disciplined enough to protect a low multiple. If catastrophe losses rise or pricing softens, the case for re-rating weakens quickly.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected around May 5, 2026. Watch the catastrophe loss ratio against management's sub-5% target.
Profitability
Return on equity staying above the reset level
13.7% ROE is the best argument for the stock. If it starts sliding back toward the prior 2%, the low multiple is telling the truth.
Risk
Weather and reserve noise
A 5/100 predictability score means surprises are part of the package. This is not a smooth compounding story.
Valuation
Whether 8.5x earnings starts to move
Cheap stocks stay cheap when the market doubts durability. A higher multiple would signal investors believe the underwriting improvement has legs.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
Earnings are hard to model here. In human-speak, analysts do not trust this insurer to deliver smooth quarters.
risk rank
2
This score says the balance sheet is safer than most stocks. It does not mean the earnings stream is calm.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for UFCS is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$36
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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