XVARY Composite Score
46
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Under Armour sells sports apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and kids.
How it gets paid
Last year Under Armour made $5.2B in revenue. Apparel was the main engine at $3.47B, or 67% of sales.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 9.4% last year. Gross margin was 44.4% for the quarter. Net loss included a ~$247M U.S.
What just happened
Q3 FY2026: adjusted diluted EPS $0.09 on ~ $1.33B revenue— GAAP diluted EPS was $.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
108.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 46/100 — below average
What They Do
Under Armour sells sports apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and kids.
Apparel was 67% of 2024 revenue, while footwear was 23%. That gap says the logo still sells, and your shelf space still matters. The business brought in $5.2B last year, so the brand is still moving real volume.
How They Make Money
$5.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -9.4% last year
Apparel
$3.47B
Footwear
$1.19B
Accessories
$0.42B
Licensing
$0.10B
Other
$0.05B
The Products That Matter
Sells athletic clothing
Apparel
$3.5B · 67% of sales
it is the center of the company at $3.5B in annual sales. if you are waiting for a turnaround, it starts here because two-thirds of revenue sits in this line.
core business
Sells shoes and accessories
Footwear & Accessories
$1.7B · 33% of sales
this $1.7B segment is the rest of the business. it matters because a brand fix has to travel beyond apparel if management wants cleaner growth, not just a temporary reset.
one-third of sales
Key Numbers
$5.2B
annual sales
That is the size of the whole business. A 4% to 5% drop still means roughly $208M to $260M less revenue.
6.0%
operating margin
This is what is left after operating costs. On $5.2B of sales, every 1 point is about $52M.
$590M
long debt
Debt equals 20% of capital. That is not crushing, but it gives you less room when sales slip.
$5
18-mo target
That is 8% below the current $5.42 price. The market is not paying up for patience.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $590M (20% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.7% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in UAA 3 years ago → it's now worth $5240.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
GAAP vs adjusted
Q3 FY2026: adjusted diluted EPS $0.09 on ~$1.33B revenue— GAAP diluted EPS was $(1.01).
Gross margin was 44.4% for the quarter. Net loss included a ~$247M U.S. federal deferred tax valuation allowance and other non-recurring items— read the Feb 6, 2026 release tables.
~$1.33B
Q3 FY2026 revenue
$0.09
adj. diluted EPS
44.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Separating adjusted operating results from GAAP noise— the reset is tracked on adjusted metrics, not a single headline loss.
-
Under armour’s revenues are apt to fall between 4% and 5% in fiscal 2025 (year ends march 31st).
-
The company is in the midst of a sizable reset.transformation efforts are in play to elevate the brand and steer it towards a return to a full-price model. this was a daunting task in and of itself, but now the management team is undertaking such maneuvers at a time when tariffs/economic uncertainty are further rocking the boat.
-
The september interim appeared to be a step in the right direction, as revenues and adjusted earnings per share topped expectations.
-
However, consensus estimates for the full year moved lower all the same.
-
For our part, our top-line call is now $10 million lower, at $4.94 billion, translating to share earnings of $0.05.
source: Under Armour Q3 FY2026 release (Feb 6, 2026) · PRNewswire · SEC EX-99.1
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is the full-price brand reset failing to rebuild margins.
Med
Full-price strategy falls flat
the whole thesis is that cleaner selling lifts profit. with net margin at 1.7%, there is almost no room for a reset that cuts volume but does not improve margin.
if margin does not improve from here, the 108.4x trailing p/e is not a cheap-turnaround multiple. it is just expensive.
Med
Consumer pullback hits discretionary spend
under armour sells wants more than needs. if shoppers trade down, a $5.2B revenue base can shrink again before management finishes the reset.
sales are already down 9.4% from last year. another weak demand stretch would test how much patience investors still have.
Med
Estimate cuts keep coming
the september interim improved, yet the full-year revenue call on file still moved down to $4.94B. that is a bad combination.
when revisions fall while management talks reset, the market assumes the repair job takes longer than planned.
with $5.2B in revenue and only a 1.7% net margin, under armour has far less margin for error than the brand name suggests.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Net margin off the 1.7% floor
this is the first proof point that the reset is doing real work. sales can stay soft for a while. margin cannot.
Calendar
Fiscal 2025 revenue landing zone
management guided to a 4%–5% drop for the year ending march 31. you want the final number near the better end of that range.
Trend
Estimate revisions
the call on file slipped to $4.94B. if revisions stop falling, that is an early sign the reset is stabilizing.
Risk
Institutional selling streak
three straight quarters of net selling is not a thesis by itself, but it tells you big holders are not giving management much benefit of the doubt.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts expect this to lag unless the turnaround starts showing up in the numbers.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a balance-sheet crisis, but it is not a sleep-well stock either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart still says the market wants proof before it pays up.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: the quarter-to-quarter path is messy, so the thesis has to survive surprises.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 166 buyers vs. 167 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$2
$7
$5
Current price
$5
Target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $11 (+105% · 20% ann'l return)
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