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what it is
Texas Instruments makes the analog and embedded chips that let cars, factories, and gadgets sense, control, and power stuff.
how it gets paid
Last year Texas Instr made $17.7B in revenue. automotive was the main engine at $6.20B, or 35% of sales.
why it's growing
FY 2025 revenue grew ~13% to ~$17.7B. Gross margin moves quarter to quarter— Q4 2025 was ~56%, down from ~57% in Q3 2025 as utilization and mix shifted.
what just happened
Latest earnings were a small miss, with EPS at $1.27 versus a $1.33 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
32.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
25.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 61/100 — average
What they do
Texas Instruments makes the analog and embedded chips that let cars, factories, and gadgets sense, control, and power stuff.
TXN wins because analog chips stay designed into products for years, and replacing them is a hassle. Return on capital was 25.0%, which means every $1 put into the business produced $0.25 in profit. You are not buying a hype cycle here. You are buying parts that quietly stay inside your car and factory gear.
How they make money
$17.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +13.0% last year
automotive
$6.20B
industrial
$6.02B
personal electronics
$3.01B
enterprise systems
$1.24B
communications equipment
$0.71B
other
$0.53B
The products that matter
designs and sells analog chips
Analog and Embedded Semiconductors
$17.7B revenue · +13.0%
it's the combined engine behind the entire $17.7B business. this page does include an end-market split in the revenue table—use that for mix, not a vague “no segments” excuse.
100% of revenue shown
Key numbers
25.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: TXN turns every $1 invested into $0.25 of operating profit, which is elite.
32.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by annual profit → so what: trailing multiples move with the latest FY EPS— FY 2025 GAAP EPS was ~$5.45 vs. ~$5.20 in FY 2024 (verify against TI release).
$13.5B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: debt is just 8% of capital, which says the balance sheet is sturdy, not stretched.
3.2%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year as a percent of stock price → so what: you get paid to wait while the cycle recovers.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $13.5B (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 36.1% — keeps 36 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 34% — $0.34 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TXN 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,240.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest earnings were a small miss, with EPS at $1.27 versus a $1.33 estimate.
That is only a ~4.5% EPS miss vs. the consensus shown here, but the market was already nervous about slower industrial demand and softer margins. FY 2025 revenue reached ~$17.68B (~+13% YoY vs. ~$15.64B in FY 2024).
$4.42B
Q4 2025 revenue
$1.27
Q4 GAAP EPS
~56%
Q4 gross margin
the number that mattered
Q4 gross margin stepped down toward ~56%— the key read is whether factory utilization and pricing stabilize from here, not a single beat/miss headline.
-
the company’s financials revealed multiple headwinds that hurt market confidence.
-
gross profit margins shrank by 50 basis points compared to the previous quarter, with management indicating further margin pressure as they intentionally lowered factory utilization to handle elevated inventory levels of $4.8 billion.
-
the semiconductor recovery was moving forward but at a slower rate than usual, as industrial sector customers remained in ‘‘wait-and-see mode’’ due to macroeconomic uncertainty.investors were most worried about the weak fourth-quarter guidance: revenue expected between $4.22-$4.58 billion (down from q3’s $4.7 billion) and earnings per share of $1.13-$1.39 (compared to q3’s $1.48).
-
investors changed their minds about the shares.the stock reached a low between $156 and $160 in late october and then began a steady recovery in early november.
-
this bounce was driven by technical support as the stock became oversold, an improved macroeconomic outlook due to expected federal reserve rate cuts, and the company’s dividend payment of $1.42 per share on november 12, which increased 4% vs. prior year.the rally picked up speed in early december when ceo haviv ilan spoke at a conference on december 2, offering a much more optimistic outlook. he said that ‘‘all markets are recovering right now,’’ with particular strength in data centers and automotive chips, comments that helped push the stock back toward $180 and confirmed the broader semiconductor industry recovery.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is industrial and automotive chip demand staying soft.
med
end-market recovery stalls
Semiconductor demand is cyclical, and TXN is exposed across the full $17.7B revenue base. If customers keep cutting or delaying orders, the recovery story stays a story.
Current page data already frames the downside: potential 20–30% drawdown in a severe recession.
med
profitability slips before volume returns
Gross margin shrank 50 basis points from the prior quarter even as the company stayed profitable. That matters because the premium multiple rests on margins holding up better than the cycle.
Another step down would pressure the recent 28.8% quarterly net margin and make 32.9x earnings harder to defend.
med
you pay first, recovery arrives later
A $180.94 stock with a 32.9x trailing p/e and below-average momentum leaves less room for patience. The business can stay good while the stock still goes nowhere.
If results keep landing near the lower end of $4.22B–$4.58B revenue and $1.13–$1.39 EPS guidance, multiple compression can do the damage.
A slower recovery does not threaten the franchise, but it does expose the entire $17.7B revenue base and raises the odds that valuation resets before growth does.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
next-quarter guidance vs. actual
management guided to $4.22B–$4.58B in revenue and $1.13–$1.39 in EPS. where results land inside that range matters more than the range itself.
metric
gross margin direction
last quarter's 50-basis-point decline is the quiet part. if margins keep slipping, the quality premium stops looking earned.
trend
is the recovery broad or just better than awful
CEO Haviv Ilan said all markets are recovering right now. you want that line to show up in revenue, not just in conference-call optimism.
calendar
institutional conviction on the next filing cycle
3Q2025 showed 1,014 buyers versus 1,083 sellers. close counts still count. a flip back to net buying would matter.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this can lag until the recovery is visible in the numbers.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile. not a bunker stock, not a disaster story.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the rebound off $156–$160 helped, but the chart still does not say all-clear.
earnings predictability
75 / 100
management is usually reliable. you are not buying chaos here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
1,014 buyers vs. 1,083 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.8B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$138
$288
$181
current price
$213
target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $310 (+70% · 17% ann'l return)
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The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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