Start here if you're new
what it is
Tvardi is trying to make oral drugs that block STAT3, a signal tied to scar tissue and some cancers.
how it gets paid
Revenue is collaboration-scale (not a commercial consumer business)— treat dollars as lumpy and filing-specific.
what just happened
Q3 2025 net loss was ~$5.5M; diluted EPS was about -$0.59 (prior-year Q3 was about -$2.14).
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
3.4% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$46.59 fy2024 eps est
collaboration revenue — read 10-Q revenue lines
xvary composite: 37/100 — weak
What they do
Tvardi is trying to make oral drugs that block STAT3, a signal tied to scar tissue and some cancers.
Tvardi has 2 drugs in human testing and 0 long-term debt. You are buying time, not customers. The next 2 readouts are trial results, and they decide whether a $37M stock gets a rerate or a shrug.
How they make money
collaboration-scale
annual revenue (check latest 10-Q / 10-K)
total revenue
n/a
n/a
The products that matter
phase 2 drug development
TTI-101
single lead asset · phase 2
this is the reason the stock exists. the market cap is ~$37M, cash plus short-term investments were ~$36.5M at Sep 30, 2025— the rest is option value on the pipeline.
the whole thesis
Key numbers
$36.5M
cash + ST investments
As of Sep 30, 2025, cash + short-term investments were ~$36.5M; the company guided runway into Q4 2026 on current plans.
lumpy
revenue
Clinical-stage revenue is not steady— the Q3 2025 release emphasizes spend and runway more than a clean sales run rate.
loss ≫ sales
operating margin
Operating losses run far above revenue (on the order of many times sales), which is what you expect while trials—not customers—drive the story.
1.6
beta
The stock moves 60% more than the market, so your portfolio feels every headline.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $0M (0% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for TVRD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Q3 2025 net loss was ~$5.5M, with diluted EPS of about -$0.59 (vs. about -$2.14 in Q3 2024).
The Q3 2025 release highlights R&D (~$3.6M) and G&A (~$2.3M) for the quarter— this is a burn-and-runway story, not a revenue beat story.
~$5.5M
net loss (Q3)
-$0.59
diluted EPS
$36.5M
cash + ST inv.
runway
Cash into Q4 2026 matters because clinical readouts, not quarterly sales, still drive the equity.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is TTI-101 Phase 2 failure or delay.
med
clinical data can miss, or arrive too messy to matter
TVRD has one lead Phase 2 asset. If TTI-101 does not show convincing efficacy, there is no diversified commercial engine underneath to soften the blow.
At a $37M market cap, this is not a partial-thesis problem. It is the thesis.
med
cash burn can force dilution before the science has paid you back
Cash plus short-term investments were ~$36.5M at Sep 30, 2025, while nine-month 2025 net loss was ~$10.9M— runway matters, but so does the next financing if burn accelerates.
If spending stays anywhere near recent levels, financing risk becomes part of the story before commercialization does.
med
the April 2025 merger makes the story harder to underwrite cleanly
Post-merger biotech histories can look messy because old filings, old revenue, and new pipeline strategy all show up in the same record.
That raises the odds of misreading the business model and overestimating how much operating substance sits behind the current ticker.
med
headline noise can hit a microcap already trading on thin confidence
A Nov. 12, 2025 investigation announcement from Schall adds one more distraction to a stock that already has 5/100 price stability.
When confidence is fragile, even low-quality noise can move the tape.
A data miss or a financing need would pressure a micro-cap where valuation still tracks cash plus pipeline optionality.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
balance sheet math
cash is almost the whole market cap
~$36.5M of cash + ST investments versus a ~$37M market cap tells you investors are valuing little beyond liquidity and the option on TTI-101.
clinical risk
TTI-101 HCC Phase 2 data readout
Expected in the first half of 2026. This is the one number set that can change the story quickly.
calendar
next earnings report
Scheduled for May 13, 2026. For this company, earnings day is really a cash-burn and pipeline-progress update.
trend
broken price action
The stock is 84% below its $44 high and carries a 5/100 price stability score. That is what binary-event trading looks like in the wild.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not have a stable earnings base to model here. expect noise, not consistency.
risk rank
4
This is safer than only 20% of stocks in the dataset. Translation: it lives on the risky side of the market.
price stability
5 / 100
A 5/100 score means the tape is jumpy. That fits a single-asset biotech waiting on one major readout.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for TVRD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$4
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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