Start here if you're new
what it is
The Trade Desk sells software that helps advertisers buy digital ads across TVs, phones, computers, audio, and social apps from one screen.
how it gets paid
Last year Ttd made $2.9B in revenue. Connected TV was the main engine at $1.0B, or 34% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 18.5% last year. Revenue rose 177% from a year earlier. EPS climbed 126%.
what just happened
The company posted $2.0B of revenue and $0.52 a share in the latest quarter.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
41.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
23.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
The Trade Desk sells software that helps advertisers buy digital ads across TVs, phones, computers, audio, and social apps from one screen.
You plug one budget into one platform, not six. The company says customer retention stayed above 95% in Q1 2025, so leaving means rebuilding campaigns, data, and targeting at the same time. It also runs across 35 markets, which gives you reach without making you juggle a pile of tools.
How they make money
$2.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +18.5% last year
Connected TV
$1.0B
+30.0%
Mobile
$0.7B
+25.0%
Desktop display
$0.5B
+18.0%
Video and audio
$0.4B
+15.0%
Social and native
$0.3B
+20.0%
The products that matter
automated ad buying
Platform access
$2.9B revenue base
it is the core revenue engine at $2.9B, and the page's own operating data says growth on that core business slowed to 4.2% last year. that slowdown is the whole problem.
core engine
connected tv demand
CTV
41.0x earnings multiple
connected tv is part of the future pitch, but the stock still trades at 41.0x trailing earnings today. product momentum has to show up in the numbers, not the slide deck.
where growth has to show up
channel diversification
Retail media
86% north america exposure
retail media matters because the company needs more than growth. it needs diversification. with 86% of revenue still coming from North America, any new channel that broadens the base matters more than management spin.
needs to diversify
Key numbers
$36.9
share price
You can buy the stock for $36.9 now, or 63% below the $60 target.
41.0x
trailing p/e
You are paying 41 times trailing earnings. That is pricey, but the company still expects 30.0% sales growth.
25.0%
operating margin
A quarter of revenue becomes operating profit. That is why the business can grow without looking sloppy.
$60
18-month target
The target sits 63% above the current price. The market only needs to stop panicking for the stock to get there.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 17.7% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 23% — $0.23 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TTD 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,900.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The company posted $2.0B of revenue and $0.52 a share in the latest quarter.
Revenue rose 177% from a year earlier. EPS climbed 126%. That is what you get when advertisers keep spending and the platform keeps taking its cut.
$2.0B
revenue
$0.52
eps
177%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
Revenue of $2.0B mattered most. It says the platform is still collecting fees at a fast clip.
-
the trade desk will likely post record earnings in both 2025 and 2026.
-
the company reported september-interim earnings of $0.23 a share, a penny above our estimate and a 21% improvement on the year-earlier result, on a strong 18% revenue advance.the top line reaped the rewards of new product innovations across its kokai platform, which are helping the world’s leading brands unlock the full potential of data-driven advertising. however, the company’s bottom line continues to be tempered by a significant uptick in its effective income tax rate.
-
all told, we look for the trade desk to post 2025 earnings of about $0.90 a share, with a 22% bottom-line advance likely in the cards for 2026.
-
but the equity has been hammered over the last year.
-
ttd stock has fallen 69% in value over the last 12 months, due to a confluence of company-specific issues, such as an uptick in expenses, moderating revenue growth, macroeconomic volatility, and increasing competition.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is North American ad-spend concentration.
med
North America carries the story
86% of revenue comes from North America. When one region drives nearly the entire $2.9B business, a local ad slowdown stops being a macro headline and starts becoming your income statement.
If growth in that region stalls, the premium multiple has less and less to stand on.
med
Competition can compress ad-tech margins fast
Google and Amazon do not need permission to make life harder for smaller platforms. The Trade Desk's 16.1% net margin is good, but not so high that it is immune to pricing pressure or share loss.
Even modest margin pressure matters when the stock still trades at 41.0x trailing earnings.
med
Execution has to match the Kokai story
Recent commentary leaned on new product progress across Kokai, while the page's own product section says the core business slowed to 4.2% last year. That gap between story and reported pace is where disappointment lives.
If product adoption does not re-accelerate revenue, the stock can stay cheap-looking and still go nowhere.
A slowdown in North America would pressure 86% of revenue, while any hit to the recent 15.7–16.1% margin range would make 41.0x earnings look even less comfortable.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number that mattered
North America staying at 86%
If that mix does not start to come down, the diversification story is still mostly a story. International is only 14% of revenue today.
growth
Whether 14% growth is a floor or a fade
Q4 grew 14% from a year ago. The market will care less about record revenue than whether that pace stabilizes or slips closer to the 4.2% figure cited for the core platform business.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings and margin follow-through
The latest read showed 15.7% net margin. You want to see that hold while management argues product momentum is real.
capital allocation
The $500M buyback actually showing up
A repurchase plan announced in November 2025 only matters if shares start disappearing. At this price, execution would be one of the cleaner confidence signals management can send.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this can keep lagging until the numbers turn first.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not a bunker stock, not a full disaster either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the trend is still guilty until proven innocent.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: expect surprises, and not all of them pleasant.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 485 buyers vs. 563 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$29
$91
$37
current price
$60
target midpoint · +63% from current · 3-5yr high: $91
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive