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what it is
Tesla sells electric cars, batteries, solar gear, and a software story the market still prices like a sequel.
how it gets paid
Last year Tesla made $94.8B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.9% last year. Gross margin was 17.3%, because margin is the difference between Tesla being a giant manufacturer and being the software dream embedded in the stock price.
what just happened
Tesla posted $69.9B in latest-quarter revenue and beat consensus EPS expectations.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
348.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
23.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Tesla sells electric cars, batteries, solar gear, and a software story the market still prices like a sequel.
Tesla controls the car, the software, and its own sales and service network. That vertical integration (one company handling more of the stack → fewer middlemen → faster changes) matters when you delivered 1.636 million vehicles in 2025. Your Tesla is not just a car purchase; it is a battery, charging, service, and software relationship that is annoying to replace.
How they make money
$94.8B
annual revenue · revenue declined -2.9% last year
total revenue
$94.8B
2.9%
The products that matter
electric vehicle manufacturing
Automotive
$77.1B · 81% of revenue
it's still the center of gravity. this $77.1B segment fell 8% last year, so the stock's biggest business is moving in the wrong direction.
core business
battery storage systems
Energy & Storage
$10.4B · +67% growth
this is the part investors want to get excited about. it added $10.4B in revenue last year, but it is still much smaller than automotive.
fastest growth
repairs, used vehicles, and other services
Services & Other
$7.3B · 8% of revenue
it's a $7.3B segment growing 4%. helpful, but not large enough to change the investment case on its own.
supporting revenue
Key numbers
348.2x
trailing p/e
That multiple means the market is pricing in years of profit expansion long before Tesla is earning like a mature car company.
4.6%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business → real operating earnings → your shock absorber) is thin for a stock priced this richly.
$94.8B
annual revenue
Tesla is huge already, which makes the next leg of growth harder than the stock price likes to admit.
1.636M
2025 deliveries
Deliveries are the cleanest demand signal for Tesla, and they went the wrong way at -8.6% vs. prior year.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $5.2B (0% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.0% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TSLA 3 years ago → it's now worth $27,150.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Tesla posted $69.9B in latest-quarter revenue and beat consensus EPS expectations.
Consensus data shows Tesla earned $0.50 versus a $0.41 estimate, a 21.95% beat. EDGAR shows latest-quarter EPS at $0.84, so the revenue figure is clean but the EPS references do not fully match across sources.
$69.9B
revenue
$0.50
eps
17.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin was 17.3%, because margin is the difference between Tesla being a giant manufacturer and being the software dream embedded in the stock price.
-
tesla’s vehicle sales took a hit in the fourth quarter.
-
the company reported 418,227 deliveries for the december period, marking a 15.6% vs. prior year decline.
-
total deliveries in 2025 came in at 1.636 million, down 8.6% compared to last year’s tally.
-
while the declines were not unexpected, particularly as a $7,500 u.s. tax credit for electric vehicles (evs) expired last september, deliveries fell short of wall street’s expectations.another headwind was the increased proliferation of competitive offerings, particularly from china’s byd, which surpassed tesla as the world’s leading ev manufacturer with 2.26 million units sold last year.
-
as a result, year-on-year earnings comparisons were likely weak for a fifthconsecutive quarter and second-straight year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the biggest threat is a premium multiple sitting on top of a shrinking auto business.
med
automotive demand keeps softening
Automotive produced $77.1B of revenue last year, or 81% of the total, and that line already fell 8%.
If deliveries keep sliding from 1.636 million while auto revenue stays under pressure, the growth story gets narrower fast.
med
retaliatory tariffs and trade friction
Reuters reported Tesla warned it could face retaliatory tariffs. For a company still dominated by vehicle sales, that matters more than a headline cycle.
With 81% of revenue tied to automotive, trade pressure hits the largest segment first.
med
valuation meets ordinary margins
The stock trades at 348.2x trailing earnings, while last quarter's net margin was 4.9% and annual net margin was 8.4%.
When the multiple is this high, even a small profit miss can matter more than a decent revenue print.
Energy grew 67% to $10.4B. That's real. But it still sits next to a $77.1B automotive segment that shrank 8%. For now, the smaller business is not big enough to carry the whole valuation.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether auto stops shrinking
Automotive is still 81% of revenue. If that $77.1B line keeps falling, the rest of the story has to sprint just to keep up.
trend
energy growth versus its size
Energy & Storage grew 67% to $10.4B. Great growth, smaller base. You want to see it stay fast while becoming large enough to matter.
risk
tariff headlines with real earnings consequences
Tesla has already warned about retaliatory tariffs. That is not abstract when vehicles still drive most of the revenue.
calendar
the next earnings print
Based on past timing, the next quarterly report is expected in late april 2026. Watch margin and automotive revenue before you watch the headline beat or miss.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts see more near-term downside risk than upside momentum.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a distressed stock. It is a volatile one.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart still looks better than the earnings line.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
expect surprises. A 35/100 score means quarterly numbers tend to come in with more drama than consistency.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 2,062 buyers vs. 1,509 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$213
$730
$435
current price
$472
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $730
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