Start here if you're new
what it is
It sells farm, pet, and hardware supplies to rural shoppers and small businesses.
how it gets paid
Last year Tractor Supply made $15.5B in revenue. Livestock was the main engine at $4.2B, or 27% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.3% last year. Demand in consumable, usable, and edible categories remained healthy, particularly livestock and pet-related items.
what just happened
Quarterly sales hit $3.9B, but EPS landed at $0.43 and missed the $0.46 bar.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
25.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
28.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
It sells farm, pet, and hardware supplies to rural shoppers and small businesses.
Tractor Supply runs 2,395 stores and 207 PetSense locations. You buy feed, tools, and pet supplies in one errand, then repeat it next month. A 9.5% operating margin means about 9.5 cents of every dollar survives store costs.
How they make money
$15.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.3% last year
Livestock
$4.2B
Companion Animal
$3.7B
Seasonal & Recreation
$3.7B
Truck, Tool, & Hardware
$2.3B
Clothing, Gift, & Decor
$1.6B
The products that matter
retail goods sales
Merchandise Sales
$13.2B · 85% of sales
this is the $13.2B core business. when same-store demand softens or promotions pick up, this is where you feel it first.
85% of sales
services and ancillary revenue
Services & Other
$1.6B · 10% of sales
this $1.6B bucket is meaningful, but it is still small next to merchandise. It helps, yet it does not change the basic retail story.
10% of sales
unbroken-out remainder
Other revenue not detailed here
snapshot data is thin
the page does not fully break out the remaining revenue buckets. that tells you the real analytical focus belongs on total sales growth, margin discipline, and customer demand.
data gap
Key numbers
$15.5B
annual revenue
This is the size of the machine. You are looking at a retailer that already pulls in more than $15B a year, not a tiny chain with a hobby problem.
25.4x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings ratio means the price you pay for each dollar of profit. At 25.4x, you are paying up for stability.
9.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit left after store costs. About 9.5 cents on each dollar is respectable for a full-line retailer after rent, labor, and freight.
28.5%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on invested money. At 28.5%, you are getting a lot of profit back for every dollar tied up in the business.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $1.8B (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.1% — keeps about 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 43% — annual profit is a large share of book equity
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TSCO 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,060.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Quarterly sales hit $3.9B, but EPS landed at $0.43 and missed the $0.46 bar.
Net sales rose 3.3% to $3.9B. Comparable-store sales (sales at stores open at least a year) were barely positive, and gross margin (profit after product costs) slipped as promotions, delivery costs, and tariff costs rose.
$3.9B
revenue
$0.43
eps
35.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $0.43. That was $0.03 below the $0.46 estimate, a 6.5% miss, even after $3.9B of sales.
-
tractor supply delivered mostly modest results in the recent fourth quarter.
-
net sales rose 3.3%, to $3.9 billion, while comparable-store sales edged nominally higher, reflecting a slight gain in the average ticket.demand in consumable, usable, and edible categories remained healthy, particularly livestock and pet-related items. however, results on a comparative basis were held back by the absence of hurricane-rated recovery sales that boosted last year’s figures and by softer spending in discretionary and bigticket categories during the holiday period.
-
the gross margin slipped slightly amid heavier promotions and higher delivery and tariff costs.
-
earnings came in below expectations, at $0.43 per share.
-
we look for steadier progress in 2026 and 2027.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is gross margin pressure inside a still-mostly-merchandise retail model.
med
rural consumer spending softens
TSCO still depends on people showing up and buying physical goods. if farm, pet, seasonal, and discretionary demand cools at the same time, revenue growth can get thin fast.
nearly all of its $15.5B revenue base is tied to retail demand holding up.
med
promotions, freight, and tariffs keep squeezing margin
management already flagged heavier promotions, higher delivery expense, and tariff costs. that is the quiet part loud: the income statement is taking hits from several directions at once.
when net margin is about 7.1%, even small cost pressure matters because there is not much cushion to begin with.
med
the stock stays expensive for the growth it delivers
revenue grew 4.3% last year, but the stock trades at 25.4x trailing earnings. if growth stays ordinary, the multiple has less room to be generous.
this is valuation risk, not balance-sheet risk. the business can stay fine while the stock does very little.
a retailer with 85% of sales in merchandise and a ~7.1% net margin does not need a collapse to feel pain — it just needs soft demand and sticky costs at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross margin
the recent warning signs all run through margin. if promotions, freight, and tariffs keep biting, the premium multiple gets harder to defend.
trend
comparable-store sales
recent comp growth was barely above flat. this is the cleanest read on whether customer demand is actually improving.
calendar
the next earnings print
TSCO does not need hero numbers. it needs a quarter that shows steadier progress is real, not just management vocabulary.
risk
institutional flow
two straight quarters of net selling is not a panic signal, but it does tell you big holders have not been rushing to pay up here.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts do not expect TSCO to lead the market over the next stretch.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. this is a quality issue, not a fragility issue.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart says investors want more proof before they pay a higher price.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management usually produces a readable business. that is part of why the stock rarely gets truly cheap.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 442 buyers vs. 470 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.5B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$43
$80
$52
current price
$62
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $85 (+65% · 15% ann'l return)
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