Start here if you're new
what it is
TransUnion sells the files and scores lenders use to decide whether you get approved, priced higher, or ignored.
how it gets paid
Last year Transunion made $4.6B in revenue. credit reports and scores was the main engine at $1.8B, or 39% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.4% last year. That is a 49.0% miss, even with annual revenue still at $4.6 billion and up 9.4% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Last earnings missed badly, with EPS at $0.52 versus a $1.02 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
18.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
0.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
TransUnion sells the files and scores lenders use to decide whether you get approved, priced higher, or ignored.
TransUnion sits on more than 30 petabytes of data, and that pile has grown 25% a year since 2010. Data scale (more records feeding the model) → better risk calls → lenders keep paying because bad lending mistakes cost real money. Once your bank plugs this into underwriting and fraud checks, ripping it out is painful.
How they make money
$4.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.4% last year
credit reports and scores
$1.8B
+8.0%
fraud and identity
$1.1B
+12.0%
marketing and audience data
$0.7B
+6.0%
collections and debt management
$0.6B
+5.0%
consumer subscriptions and monitoring
$0.4B
+7.0%
The products that matter
core bureau data and scoring
Credit Reporting & Analytics
$4.6B disclosed segment revenue
it generated $4.6B last year from the data and scoring products lenders use every day. That is the core franchise, even if the page does not break out every sub-product.
foundation business
unified data platform
OneTru Platform
$500M innovation target
management is aiming for $500M in new revenue from OneTru. That is the growth story management is selling, and the market will want proof quarter by quarter.
next growth bet
Key numbers
100
predictability score
Earnings predictability → how steady profits have been → so what: steadier numbers usually deserve more trust when you underwrite a multi-year thesis.
$5.0B
long-term debt
Debt this large matters because it limits room for error if pricing weakens or credit volumes stall.
18.2x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings) → how much investors pay for each dollar of profit → so what: this is not expensive if earnings really climb to $5.55 by 2027.
9.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in the business → so what: decent, but not elite for a company selling data.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $5.0B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 21.5% — keeps 22 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TRU 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,410.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Last earnings missed badly, with EPS at $0.52 versus a $1.02 estimate.
That is a 49.0% miss, even with annual revenue still at $4.6 billion and up 9.4% vs. prior year. The quiet part: investors can forgive slow growth faster than they forgive unreliable numbers.
$3.4B
revenue
$1.80
eps
18.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 49.0% EPS miss matters most because it undercuts the case that this is a smooth, predictable data business.
-
transunion faces a changing competitive landscape in 2026.historically, fair isaac would provide its fico credit scores to credit bureaus like transunion, which would then use them to market consumer credit ratings to banks and other lenders.
-
last year, fair isaac moved to cut out the middleman and began offering its credit scores directly to banks.in response, transunion used is proprietary data to develop its own credit scores called vantagescore 4.0.
-
initially the plan was to undercut the legacy pricing with the new product to gain market share.in a positive development, around mid year the federal housing finance authority announced that lenders could use the new vantagescore 4.0 ratings to approve loans from government lenders fannie mae and freddie mac. investors are still waiting to see the affects of the changes in the market place on transunion's bottom line.
-
thus 2026, will be a very telling year for the company.credit scoring underpins not only its consumer ratings business, but also many of its marketing products. with a large and growing database of consumer spending and credit performance data, the marketplace shift may turn into an opportunity for transunion but risks here are higher than usual.
-
there are several other mixed trends that will impact the year ahead.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a U.S. credit slowdown colliding with $5.1B of debt.
high
debt limits your margin for error
The company carries $5.1B in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. That is $1.10 of debt for every $1 of equity on a business with a B+ balance sheet, not an A one.
If growth slows, interest expense and refinancing risk matter more than the moat.
high
lending volume drives the core business
As a credit bureau, TransUnion is tied to loan applications, card originations, and underwriting activity. The page's disclosed core revenue base is $4.6B, and that demand weakens when lenders pull back.
A softer credit cycle hits revenue before cost cuts can catch up.
med
privacy and consumer-data litigation
Consumer-data businesses live under constant legal scrutiny. The page already flags privacy lawsuits in California and the shadow of TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez.
Legal costs are manageable until they are not, and reputational damage can outlast the settlement.
low
execution risk around OneTru
Management is targeting $500M in innovation-led revenue. That sounds good. The burden is proving the platform can add growth without bloating costs.
If the new platform sells slowly, the stock goes back to trading like a mature bureau with debt.
U.S. Markets alone produced $3.2B of revenue, and the company carries $5.1B of debt. If lending activity contracts, both the income statement and the balance sheet feel it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
fy2026 EPS guide versus the $4.63–$4.71 range
This is the number that reset expectations. If management starts nudging it higher, the selloff looks temporary. If not, the multiple has no reason to expand.
calendar
q1 2026 earnings report
Expected around April 23–28, 2026. Watch whether Q1 EPS lands inside the company range of $1.08–$1.10 and whether guidance gets cleaner.
trend
international staying ahead of U.S. growth
International grew 12% versus 8% for U.S. Markets in the disclosed segment view. If that gap holds, it gives the company one growth lever outside the domestic credit cycle.
risk
whether OneTru turns into revenue or just another slide deck
Management put a $500M innovation target on the table. The stock does not need a slogan. It needs booked revenue and margins that hold up.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this can lag until management proves the guide was conservative, not optimistic.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-pack risk. Not fragile, not a bunker.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not broken, but it is not leading either.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management usually lands close to plan. That is useful because it narrows the debate to valuation and growth, not accounting drama.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 297 buyers vs. 247 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$63
$137
$77
current price
$100
target midpoint · +30% from current · 3-5yr high: $190 (+145% · 26% ann'l return)
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