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what it is
Tronox digs up minerals and turns them into titanium dioxide pigment used in paint, plastic, and paper.
how it gets paid
Last year Tronox Hldngs made $2.9B in revenue. Titanium dioxide pigment was the main engine at $2.29B, or 79% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.7% last year. The lack of demand and low pricing for tronox’s core product has seen negative quarterly sales comparisons for the last four quarters.
what just happened
Tronox put up $2.2B of revenue, but the quarter still came with a -$1.85 EPS hole.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
2.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.20 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
What they do
Tronox digs up minerals and turns them into titanium dioxide pigment used in paint, plastic, and paper.
Tronox is vertically integrated, which means it owns the mine and the plant. So what: that can shave steps out of a dirty industrial chain. But titanium dioxide was 79% of 2024 sales, so your "diversification" is mostly a spreadsheet trick.
How they make money
$2.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -5.7% last year
Titanium dioxide pigment
$2.29B
Zircon
$0.32B
Pig iron
$0.15B
Other products
$0.15B
The products that matter
mines feedstock minerals
mineral sands
inside the $2.9B revenue base
the snapshot does not break out mineral sands sales, so you have to judge it inside the full $2.9B company and its 10.6% gross margin. that keeps the thesis broad and the certainty low.
segment split not shown
manufactures pigment materials
titanium dioxide pigment
judged through 16.0% operating margin
this product is important enough to name in the business summary, but the page gives no revenue split. you are left reading it through the combined 16.0% operating margin and the 5.7% sales decline.
margin driver, not broken out
sells chemical inputs
electrolytes
no stand-alone figures here
electrolytes are listed, but not separated. in human-speak: there is no neatly disclosed growth engine on this page — only the combined $2.9B revenue base and a -$0.20 FY2027 EPS estimate.
thin disclosure
Key numbers
$3.1B
debt
That is 72% of capital, which leaves less room for mistakes when margins are negative.
8.7%
operating margin
You are looking at a business that loses money before interest and taxes.
2.7%
dividend yield
You get paid to wait, but the payout has to survive a weak cash cycle first.
1.9
beta
The stock tends to swing about twice as hard as the market, so the ride is rough.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $3.1B (72% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.7% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TROX 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,390.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Tronox put up $2.2B of revenue, but the quarter still came with a -$1.85 EPS hole.
Revenue was $2.2B, up 210% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 10.6%. That is better than a collapse, but it is not a clean profit story.
$2.2B
revenue
-$1.85
eps
10.6%
gross margin
gross margin
10.6% gross margin mattered because a $2.2B quarter still did not turn into real profit.
-
tronox’s stock price has perked up.
-
indeed, the equity is up almost 70% since our november 21st report.this is thanks to the export-import bank of the u.s., and export finance of australia providing tronox with $600 million in low-cost non-recourse debt. this is to be used to finance the mining of rare earth minerals from tronox’s western australia titanium dioxide (tio2) mines. producing rare earth minerals is far more lucrative than synthesizing tio2, especially now that there is a global tio2 overcapacity situation, and demand for the whitening pigment is likely to remain soft this year. the problem is that excavating and purifying rare earth minerals is a dirty, painstaking, and expensive business.
-
environmental issues will presumably arise, and capital spending is expected to increase.still, given the fact that china has a virtual monopoly on many rare earths, any more western mines that produce them will be invaluable.
-
the rare earth deal means that sales could rise toward the end of 2026.the lack of demand and low pricing for tronox’s core product (tio2) has seen negative quarterly sales comparisons for the last four quarters, and we expect the fourth quarter to be no different.
-
meanwhile, tronox has made a quarterly profit in only one of its last ten interims.should tronox be able to produce rare earths over the next few quarters, they will almost certainly command high prices, since they are critical to the permanent magnet, defense, energy, and advanced technology markets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Tronox does not need a vague scare to go wrong. The risks are already on the page: heavy leverage, thin margins, weak predictability, and a stock that has already burned capital.
med
$3.1B of debt leaves little room for a bad cycle
Long-term debt equals 72% of capital. That is the number you check first in a business with shaky earnings visibility.
If profits stay thin, the 2.7% dividend stops looking generous and starts looking optional.
med
10.6% gross margin is not much protection
Gross margin is 10.6% and net margin is 4.7%. That is a narrow buffer against weaker pricing, lower utilization, or cost creep.
You do not need a collapse to hurt earnings here. A small squeeze can do the job.
med
predictability is already telling you the quarter can bite
Earnings predictability sits at 10/100, and the FY2027 EPS estimate is -$0.20. Those two numbers belong together.
If results keep jumping around, the stock stays cheap for a reason.
med
you are not getting a stable ride while you wait
Price stability is 10/100 and the 52-week range runs from $3 to $8. That is a wide swing for a $7.48 stock.
Even if the long-range target is right, your path there can still be ugly.
The stock works only if margins recover faster than debt and capex consume cash. Right now, that is a hard ask.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
watch
$3.1B of debt is the number that runs the page
At 72% of capital, debt is too large to treat as background noise. If you only track one line, track this one against earnings.
watch
10.6% gross margin leaves little room for mistakes
Net margin is 4.7%. A small pricing or cost hit can do more damage here than it would at a fatter business.
watch
watch whether -$0.20 turns positive
The recovery story gets real when the earnings line does. Until then, you are still paying for hope and patience.
watch
the long-range target says upside, but treat it as rough
This page shows a $9 midpoint and an $11–$19 long-range band. Use the direction of travel, not false precision.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see a smooth earnings line here.
3–5 year target range
$11–$19
the upside case exists on paper, but the same page still shows -$0.20 FY2027 EPS. that's the catch.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
100 buyers vs. 123 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$4
$14
$7
current price
$9
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $19 (+155% · 28% ann'l return)
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