Start here if you're new
what it is
Trex makes composite deck, railing, and fence products that replace wood.
how it gets paid
Last year Trex made ~$1.2B in revenue. Decking (residential boards) was the main engine at ~$0.97B, or ~81% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew about 2% last year on a ~$1.2B base. Ignore any giant vs. prior year revenue % in vendor feeds unless the comp quarter is clean—here the story is low growth, not a triple-digit spike.
what just happened
The latest quarter landed around ~$300M of revenue (order-of-magnitude for a ~$1.2B year), with gross margin near 40.6%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
21.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
19.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Trex makes composite deck, railing, and fence products that replace wood.
Trex is the largest non-wood deck maker in the U.S. Product mix: decking is about ~81% of sales on this page. Customer concentration (different idea): the filing narrative often cites a handful of big buyers driving a large share of residential volume—do not merge that with the decking mix % without checking the 10-K; two “~81%” style figures are easy to mash in your head.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.0% last year
Decking
$0.97B
Railing
$0.17B
Fencing
$0.06B
The products that matter
composite decking for homes
Trex Residential
$972M · 81% of sales
it's the center of gravity. this line produced $972M last year, and when one product family drives 81% of sales, you watch that demand first.
core driver
product refresh and premium features
new offerings
24% of 2025 sales (mgmt. mix)
management cited new offerings at 24% of 2025 sales—that is a mix statistic (can overlap with decking), not a third segment that must sum to 100% with the 81% decking share.
refresh matters
Key numbers
$62
target
The target sits 52% above $40.68. You are paying for a rebound, not for perfection.
$1.2B
annual sales
Annual revenue is $1.2B. That is a large business with only 2.0% growth in the latest read.
30.0%
operating margin
Trex keeps 30.0% of sales before interest and taxes. That leaves room, but not much drama room.
81%
decking mix
About 81% of sales here is decking (product mix). Buyer concentration is a separate disclosure—see the moat note so you do not double-read the same number two ways.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- net profit margin 16.9% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 19% — $0.19 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TREX 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,990.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Trex held gross margin near 40.6% in the latest print, with quarterly revenue on a ~$1.2B annual scale.
EPS reached $1.75 in that window in this feed. The key test is whether margin stays near 40% when costs move—do not trust triple-digit revenue growth % without checking the year-ago comp.
~$300M
Q revenue (approx.)
$1.75
eps (q)
40.6%
gross margin (q)
gross margin
40.6% gross margin mattered because it shows Trex kept nearly 41 cents of each sales dollar before overhead—even when top-line growth is only a few percent.
-
trex is in a good position to lift sales this year.
-
for 2025, the company raised its top line 2%, to $1.174 billion.that $1.174B is the same year as the ~$1.2B rounded revenue callouts elsewhere on this page—precision vs headline rounding, not two different totals. this growth still outpaced the home repair and remodel market.
-
management believes it can do the same in 2026.efforts continue to expand the product line, establish new distribution, enhance digital sales, as well as assure adequate marketing and advertising.
-
added attributes to deck offerings, inclusive of upgraded fire resistance, better heat mitigation, and more colors, ought to prove appealing.
-
new offerings accounted for 24% of 2025 sales.expanded distribution pacts with specialty building products and weekes forest products, to broaden decking and railing business in the midwest, are also a plus. wholesalers of building products and retail home centers have stocked up inventories, in anticipation of a decent upcoming spring season.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a slowdown in residential decking demand.
med
repair-and-remodel slowdown
Trex sells into discretionary home projects. If homeowners delay deck spending, the core category slows fast.
impact: the business tied to that spending produced $972M last year.
med
product concentration
Trex Residential is 81% of sales. Concentration helps focus when demand is strong. It hurts when one category wobbles.
impact: there is no equally sized second segment to offset a miss.
low
product refresh losing steam
New offerings were 24% of 2025 sales. If that contribution fades, growth drops back toward whatever the underlying market is doing.
impact: the premium story weakens if innovation stops showing up in the mix.
with 81% of sales tied to Trex Residential and total revenue up only 2.0% last year, you do not have much room for a demand wobble.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings report
watch the next earnings release expected on may 14, 2026. you want to see whether demand and margin held together.
trend
2026 sales growth versus the market
management says Trex can outgrow the repair-and-remodel market again. that's the operating test for the whole thesis.
metric
new offerings share of sales
new offerings were 24% of 2025 sales. if that mix holds or rises, Trex is still refreshing the category instead of defending yesterday's products.
risk
ceo transition and capital allocation
Bryan H. Fairbanks plans to step down in 2026, and the board authorized a $150M buyback. leadership changes are easier when demand is strong.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical stock risk. not a bunker. not a chaos machine.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is giving you little help. the story has to come from fundamentals.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
earnings are fairly readable, but housing-linked demand still creates room for surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
154 buyers vs. 216 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$31
$92
$40.68
current price
$62
target midpoint · +52% from current · 3-5yr high: $90 (+120% · 22% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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