TPH — Tri Pointe Homes · XVARY Snapshot

XVARY Composite Score

56

/ 100

Below Average

Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.

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What it is

Tri Pointe builds and sells single-family homes across eight states under six local brands.

How it gets paid

Last year Tri Pointe Homes made $3.5B in revenue. Winchester Homes was the main engine at $0.60B, or 17% of sales.

Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 22.8% last year. Institutional data said lower home deliveries and pressured margins weighed on results near the end of 2025.

What just happened

The latest quarter was a miss, with EPS at $0.80 versus the $1.13 estimate.

At a Glance

B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof

60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable

17.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal

8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about

$4.75 fy2027 eps est

XVARY composite: 56/100 — below average

What They Do

Tri Pointe builds and sells single-family homes across eight states under six local brands.

Homebuying is local, and Tri Pointe sells through six regional brands across eight states, according to. That matters because buyers do not shop for a house like they shop for toothpaste. In 2024, it closed more than 6,400 homes, and that local scale helps you keep crews busy and land moving.

homebuilder mid-cap asset-heavy housing-cycle merger-arb

How They Make Money

$3.5B annual revenue · their business grew -22.8% last year

Maracay Homes

$0.58B

Pardee Homes

$0.58B

Quadrant Homes

$0.58B

Trendmaker Homes

$0.58B

TRI Pointe Homes brand

$0.58B

Winchester Homes

$0.60B

The Products That Matter

Builds and sells homes

single-family homes

$3.5B revenue · eight states

it is the whole business: $3.5B of annual revenue, down 22.8% from a year ago, with a 14.0% operating margin. if closings slow, there is nowhere else for the company to hide.

entire revenue base

Key Numbers

$47.00

cash offer

That is the signed buyout price. With the stock at $46.44, your upside is basically merger spread, not business improvement.

17.1x

trailing p/e

P/E ratio → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of earnings → so what: you are not buying this like a distressed builder.

14.0%

operating margin

Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: Tri Pointe still makes real money when deliveries hold up.

$1.1B

long-term debt

Debt is 22% of capital, which is manageable for a builder but still ties the story to housing demand and financing costs.

Financial Health

B+

Strength

balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
price stability 50 / 100
long-term debt $1.1B (22% of capital)
net profit margin 9.2% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in

B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.

Total Return vs. Market

You invested $10000 in TPH 3 years ago → it's now worth $19670.

The index would have given you $14540.

same period. same starting point. TPH beat the market by $5,130.

source: institutional data · total return

What Just Happened

missed estimates

The latest quarter was a miss, with EPS at $0.80 versus the $1.13 estimate.

institutional data said lower home deliveries and pressured margins weighed on results near the end of 2025. That matches the bigger problem: annual revenue fell 22.8% to $3.5B.

$2.5B

revenue

$0.80

eps

n/a

the number that mattered

The 29.2% EPS miss mattered most because builders live and die on timing, pricing, and margins, and all three looked messy at once.

Specifically, tri pointe shareholders are set to receive $47 in cash for each share held.

following the deal’s closing, which is slated for the second quarter of this year pending shareholder and regulatory approvals, tri pointe will continue to operate as a distinct brand, but as a wholly-owned entity of sumitomo.
We are scaling back our current-year financial projections following soft results to conclude 2025.
Tri pointe reported revenues of $972 million and earnings of $0.70 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, with both figures representing sharp vs. prior year declines.
Lower home deliveries and pressured gross margins, coupled with challenging housing market and economic backdrops, are weighing on results.

consequently, we are shaving $350 million and $0.20 from our full-year 2026 top- and bottom-line calls, to $4.0 billion and $4.25 per share, respectively.
The company should perform better over the long haul.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What Could Go Wrong

The #1 risk is housing affordability pressure in its eight-state new-home markets.

!

High

Housing affordability pressure

Tri Pointe sells single-family homes in eight states. When mortgage payments get harder to carry, buyers step back, cancellations rise, and incentives go up. With revenue already down 22.8%, this is the fastest route from macro pain into the income statement.

exposes essentially all $3.5B of revenue to the housing cycle

∘

Med

Margin pressure from incentives and land timing

A 14.0% operating margin and 9.2% net margin are decent. They are not wide enough to shrug off discounting or poor land decisions. In homebuilding, bad inventory timing shows up later, not right away.

puts pressure on a business earning 8.5% on capital today

∘

Med

The stock already assumes better numbers ahead

The stock trades at $46.44, near the top of its 52-week range, while the listed 3–5 year midpoint is $41. That setup leaves less room for disappointment if the rebound takes longer than investors want.

about 12% gap between current price and the listed midpoint before any estimate cuts

these risks all hit the same $3.5B revenue base, and the stock at $46.44 already sits about 12% above the listed $41 long-range midpoint.

Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay Attention To

Trend

Revenue needs to stop shrinking

$3.5B of annual revenue, down 22.8% from a year ago, is the whole story right now. If that line stabilizes, the rebound argument has proof instead of hope.

Metric

Return on capital is only 8.5%

That is acceptable for a builder. It is not the kind of number that earns a premium by itself. You want to see this move up if the recovery is real.

Risk

Price is ahead of the listed midpoint

Current price is $46.44. The listed 3–5 year midpoint is $41. When the stock is already above the midpoint, you need the business to outrun the spreadsheet.

Calendar

The next proof point is simple

Watch whether revenue starts moving from $3.5B toward the $5B fy2029 estimate, and whether EPS can move toward the $4.75 fy2027 target.

Analyst Rankings

earnings predictability

60 / 100

in human-speak, the earnings stream is modelable, but not stable enough to forget this is housing.

risk rank

3

safer than about half the market. In human-speak: middle lane, not a bunker.

balance sheet

B+

good enough to absorb a normal downturn. Not the kind of balance sheet that lets you ignore a housing slowdown.

Source: institutional data

Institutional Activity

89 buyers vs. 161 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 85.4M shares.

source: institutional data · 2q2025-4q2025

Source: institutional data

Price Targets

3-5 year target range

$22 $60

$46 Current price

$41 Target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The Deep Dive

TPH

XVARY Deep Dive

tph

The full analysis is in the works.

What you'll get

DCF valuation model

Bull / base / bear scenarios

Competitive moat breakdown

Quarterly earnings tracker

Operating model projections

Risk matrix with kill criteria

Original price target + conviction

Updated with every earnings

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Below Average

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