Start here if you're new
what it is
Tri Pointe builds and sells single-family homes across eight states under six local brands.
how it gets paid
Last year Tri Pointe Homes made $3.5B in revenue. Winchester Homes was the main engine at $0.60B, or 17% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 22.8% last year. Said lower home deliveries and pressured margins weighed on results near the end of 2025.
what just happened
The latest quarter was a miss, with EPS at $0.80 versus the $1.13 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
17.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$4.75 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Tri Pointe builds and sells single-family homes across eight states under six local brands.
Homebuying is local, and Tri Pointe sells through six regional brands across eight states, according to. That matters because buyers do not shop for a house like they shop for toothpaste. In 2024, it closed more than 6,400 homes, and that local scale helps you keep crews busy and land moving.
How they make money
$3.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -22.8% last year
Maracay Homes
$0.58B
Pardee Homes
$0.58B
Quadrant Homes
$0.58B
Trendmaker Homes
$0.58B
TRI Pointe Homes brand
$0.58B
Winchester Homes
$0.60B
The products that matter
builds and sells homes
single-family homes
$3.5B revenue · eight states
it is the whole business: $3.5B of annual revenue, down 22.8% from a year ago, with a 14.0% operating margin. if closings slow, there is nowhere else for the company to hide.
entire revenue base
Key numbers
$47.00
cash offer
That is the signed buyout price. With the stock at $46.44, your upside is basically merger spread, not business improvement.
17.1x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of earnings → so what: you are not buying this like a distressed builder.
14.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: Tri Pointe still makes real money when deliveries hold up.
$1.1B
long-term debt
Debt is 22% of capital, which is manageable for a builder but still ties the story to housing demand and financing costs.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $1.1B (22% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.2% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TPH 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,670.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter was a miss, with EPS at $0.80 versus the $1.13 estimate.
Value Line said lower home deliveries and pressured margins weighed on results near the end of 2025. That matches the bigger problem: annual revenue fell 22.8% to $3.5B.
$2.5B
revenue
$0.80
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 29.2% EPS miss mattered most because builders live and die on timing, pricing, and margins, and all three looked messy at once.
-
specifically, tri pointe shareholders are set to receive $47 in cash for each share held.following the deal’s closing, which is slated for the second quarter of this year pending shareholder and regulatory approvals, tri pointe will continue to operate as a distinct brand, but as a wholly-owned entity of sumitomo.
-
we are scaling back our current-year financial projections following soft results to conclude 2025.
-
tri pointe reported revenues of $972 million and earnings of $0.70 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, with both figures representing sharp vs. prior year declines.
-
lower home deliveries and pressured gross margins, coupled with challenging housing market and economic backdrops, are weighing on results.consequently, we are shaving $350 million and $0.20 from our full-year 2026 top- and bottom-line calls, to $4.0 billion and $4.25 per share, respectively.
-
the company should perform better over the long haul.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is housing affordability pressure in its eight-state new-home markets.
high
housing affordability pressure
Tri Pointe sells single-family homes in eight states. When mortgage payments get harder to carry, buyers step back, cancellations rise, and incentives go up. With revenue already down 22.8%, this is the fastest route from macro pain into the income statement.
exposes essentially all $3.5B of revenue to the housing cycle
med
margin pressure from incentives and land timing
A 14.0% operating margin and 9.2% net margin are decent. They are not wide enough to shrug off discounting or poor land decisions. In homebuilding, bad inventory timing shows up later, not right away.
puts pressure on a business earning 8.5% on capital today
med
the stock already assumes better numbers ahead
The stock trades at $46.44, near the top of its 52-week range, while the listed 3–5 year midpoint is $41. That setup leaves less room for disappointment if the rebound takes longer than investors want.
about 12% gap between current price and the listed midpoint before any estimate cuts
these risks all hit the same $3.5B revenue base, and the stock at $46.44 already sits about 12% above the listed $41 long-range midpoint.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
revenue needs to stop shrinking
$3.5B of annual revenue, down 22.8% from a year ago, is the whole story right now. If that line stabilizes, the rebound argument has proof instead of hope.
metric
return on capital is only 8.5%
That is acceptable for a builder. It is not the kind of number that earns a premium by itself. You want to see this move up if the recovery is real.
risk
price is ahead of the listed midpoint
Current price is $46.44. The listed 3–5 year midpoint is $41. When the stock is already above the midpoint, you need the business to outrun the spreadsheet.
calendar
the next proof point is simple
Watch whether revenue starts moving from $3.5B toward the $5B fy2029 estimate, and whether EPS can move toward the $4.75 fy2027 target.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
60 / 100
in human-speak, the earnings stream is modelable, but not stable enough to forget this is housing.
risk rank
3
safer than about half the market. In human-speak: middle lane, not a bunker.
balance sheet
B+
good enough to absorb a normal downturn. Not the kind of balance sheet that lets you ignore a housing slowdown.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
89 buyers vs. 161 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 85.4M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$22
$60
$46
current price
$41
target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive