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what it is
Turning Point Brands sells smokeless tobacco, chewing tobacco, rolling papers, cigar wraps, and nicotine vapor products in the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Turning Point Brands made $463M in revenue.
why it's growing
Full-year revenue grew ~28% last year. A single quarter can show a much larger vs. prior year percentage after M&A or accounting base shifts—do not stack that headline next to the annual rate without checking the same period in the 10-Q.
what just happened
A recent quarter’s revenue is on the order of ~$100–130M when annual sales are ~$463M—verify the exact quarter in the filing. EPS of ~$0.95 vs ~$0.96 expected is the kind of near-miss that only matters if the basis (GAAP vs adjusted) matches.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
27.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
0.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Turning Point Brands sells smokeless tobacco, chewing tobacco, rolling papers, cigar wraps, and nicotine vapor products in the U.S.
This business wins by owning old-school nicotine habits and newer pouch demand at the same time. You do not need 310 employees to print a 25.5% operating margin, but TPB does exactly that. Return on capital (profit earned on money invested in the business, so what: management has a real habit of turning dollars into earnings) sits at 13.0%.
How they make money
$463M
annual revenue · their business grew +28.4% last year
total revenue
$463M
+28.4%
The products that matter
legacy otp cash engine
legacy tobacco
$463M revenue base
this is the revenue base investors are underwriting today, and parts of it grew only 4.2% last year. slow growth is fine if it keeps funding the newer bets. it is a problem if it starts slipping.
cash flow base
oral nicotine pouch growth
modern oral products
~13% sales growth
this is the part that grew roughly 13% vs. prior year and helped push EPS up 21%. in human-speak: it is the segment carrying the premium multiple on its back.
growth engine
50/50 branded joint venture
alp joint venture
50% stake
you only capture half the economics here. the current page data also ties much of the brand story to one media personality's audience. that gives you attention. it does not give you diversification.
speculative upside
Key numbers
27.4x
trailing p/e
P/E means stock price divided by yearly profit, so what: you are paying $27.40 for each $1 of profit already produced, which is expensive for an average-risk tobacco name.
25.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business, before interest and taxes, so what: TPB keeps about $0.26 from every $1 of sales.
$293M
long-term debt
Long-term debt means money owed beyond a year, so what: debt is 13% of capital, which is manageable but still real in a regulated business.
13.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on money invested, so what: TPB gets $0.13 back for every $1 tied up in the business.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $293M (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 21.0% — keeps 21 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TPB 3 years ago → it's now worth $53,230.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue for the quarter behind the near-miss was on the order of ~$115–130M (q) against ~$463M FY—not $342M (that scale is usually TTM, YTD, or a mashed line). EPS of $0.95 came in just below the $0.96 estimate.
Coverage on this page points to roughly low-teens percent sales growth vs. prior year and EPS up ~21% in that narrative—ignore triple-digit vs. prior year revenue/EPS pairs; they are almost always period or M&A base errors versus the ~$463M annual frame.
~$120M
revenue (q)
$0.95
eps (q)
57.5%
gross margin (q)
the number that mattered
Gross margin at 57.5% matters most because it shows TPB is not buying growth at low-quality economics.
-
turning point brands posted solid results for the third quarter.
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sales rose roughly 13% from the like year-ago period, while earnings per share were up by 21%.
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the biggest contributor to this was the company’s modern oral products (in other words, its nicotine pouches), which accounted for 31% of total net sales, up from 26% in the second quarter.management projects that the market for oral nicotine pouches is likely to amount to $10 billion by 2030, and while turning point’s products are unlikely to displace the current market leader, zyn, the company is still well-positioned to control a sizeable amount of that total. that said, the company is facing a potential stumbling block in its modern oral strategy related to its business partner, the media personality tucker carlson. turning point has two brands of nicotine pouches, its fully-owned fre brand and the alp brand, which is co-owned with mr.
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carlson, with each side having a 50% stake.in the broader modern oral market, alp competes as a lifestyle product, with its success being heavily driven by mr. carlson’s star power and the desire of his fans to signal a conservative political affiliation through their purchase.
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as such, mr.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
TPB's risk is specific, not abstract: the stock is already priced for modern oral to keep carrying the story even though the legacy business still carries most of the weight.
high
modern oral slows before it gets big enough to change the mix
roughly 13% growth is doing a lot of valuation work. if that drops below 10% while the legacy base stays near 4.2%, the premium multiple loses its clearest defense.
the stock stops looking like a transition winner and starts looking expensive
med
the legacy cash engine is steadier than exciting
parts of the older base grew only 4.2% last year. that's fine if it stays durable. it becomes a problem if volume or pricing slips and the faster-growing categories still are not large enough to offset it.
you get pressure on both earnings quality and investor patience
med
alp adds attention and concentration at the same time
TPB owns 50% of the economics, and the current page data ties much of the demand story to one personality's audience. that is efficient customer acquisition until it isn't.
you share 100% of the headlines and only 50% of the profit stream
med
valuation already assumes a cleaner future than analysts do
the 3–5 year target midpoint is $95 versus a current price near $107. that's an 11% gap in the wrong direction. when you are above the midpoint, execution misses get repriced faster.
good results help. merely decent results leave you exposed
the cleanest way to say it: TPB is priced for the oral nicotine transition to keep working, even though the current 3–5 year target midpoint of $95 still sits below the $106.68 stock price.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
modern oral growth rate
roughly 13% growth is carrying a lot of narrative weight. if that line bends lower, the multiple gets harder to defend.
calendar
next earnings report
you want another quarter where EPS and margin stay firm while management shows the newer nicotine categories are still taking share.
trend
revenue mix shift
here's the thing: the faster-growing businesses need to become materially larger, not just interesting on conference calls.
risk
alp brand dependency
a 50/50 venture built around personality-driven demand can scale quickly. it can also hit its natural audience ceiling quickly.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is acting more like the market than a runaway winner. that matters because the valuation already asks for above-average execution.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-road risk. in human-speak, this is not a bunker stock and not a pure casino chip either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak: the chart still has believers.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management's earnings pattern has been reliable. you usually get numbers, not drama.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 112 buyers vs. 104 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 18.5M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$54
$136
$107
current price
$95
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $140 (+30% · 7% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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