XVARY Composite Score
76
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Toll Brothers builds and sells expensive homes, plus the land and communities around them, across 60-plus markets.
How it gets paid
Last year Toll Brothers made $11.0B in revenue. move-up luxury homes was the main engine at $4.4B, or 40% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.1% last year. Revenue rose 15% vs. prior year to $2.146 billion.
What just happened
Toll Brothers posted a latest-quarter EPS of $2.19 on $2.1 billion of revenue, while the most recent reported quarter missed consensus at $4.58 versus $4.87.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
11.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 76/100 — average
What They Do
Toll Brothers builds and sells expensive homes, plus the land and communities around them, across 60-plus markets.
This company sells houses, but the real edge is land, brand, and patience. It operates in over 60 markets across 24 states plus D.C., which gives you a wider map than a local builder. Luxury buyers also absorb higher prices better, which helps Toll Brothers hold a 12.8% net profit margin when many builders live on thinner spreads.
How They Make Money
$11.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.1% last year
move-up luxury homes
$4.4B
+1.1%
empty nester and active adult homes
$2.8B
+1.1%
luxury first-time homes
$1.7B
+1.1%
second-home and resort communities
$1.0B
+1.1%
land sales and other
$1.1B
+15.0%
The Products That Matter
Builds and sells luxury homes
Luxury Homebuilding
$11.0B revenue · 100% of annual sales base
it's the core $11.0B business, and the 11.7% net margin tells you these are premium homes, not commodity boxes.
core engine
Monetizes owned land parcels
Land Sales
$291M recent quarter · up from $18.4M
this line can make a quarter look much better fast: $291M versus $18.4M from a year ago is a real swing factor.
quarter mover
Mortgage and title services
Financial Services
supports the $11.0B home sales machine
it matters because it keeps more of the economics in-house around the same buyers driving the $11.0B core business.
margin helper
Key Numbers
11.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many years of current earnings you are paying for → so what: this is cheap for a builder still earning double-digit margins.
18.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs but before interest and taxes → so what: Toll keeps $0.18 from each sales dollar before financing costs.
$2.7B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: the balance sheet is fine, but housing downturns get worse when debt is already there.
$177
18-month target
Target price → where thinks the stock can trade in 18 months → so what: that implies about 15% upside from $154.28.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $2.7B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.8% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in TOL 3 years ago → it's now worth $26790.
The index would have given you $14540.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Toll Brothers posted a latest-quarter EPS of $2.19 on $2.1 billion of revenue, while the most recent reported quarter missed consensus at $4.58 versus $4.87.
Revenue rose 15% vs. prior year to $2.146 billion, but land sales were a big part of the lift at $291 million. Quiet part out loud: the quarter looked cleaner from 30,000 feet than from the lot line.
$2.1B
revenue
$2.19
eps
+15%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
$291 million in land sales mattered most because it helped create the 15% revenue jump, which makes the quarter less repeatable than the headline implies.
-
Toll brothers got off to a solid start in fiscal 2026 (ends october 31st).the homebuilder earned $2.19 a share in the january period, which far exceeded both our estimate of $1.85 and the prior-year figure of $1.75.
-
The primary catalyst was a 15% vs. prior year increase in total revenues, to $$2.146 billion.
-
However, the three-month performance may not have been as it appeared at first blush.
-
The revenue upside was driven by land sales, which rose to $291 million.
-
By comparison, land sales totaled $18.4 million in the prior-year period.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is luxury home demand cracking under higher mortgage rates and weaker buyer confidence.
Med
Housing-cycle exposure
there is no hiding from the cycle here. The business generated $11.0B in annual revenue selling homes and related activity tied to housing demand.
100% of the revenue base depends on buyers still showing up
Med
Land-sale volatility
the latest quarter got a major boost from land sales. That's welcome cash, but it can also make demand look stronger than the underlying homebuilding trend.
$291M this quarter versus $18.4M in the comparable period
Med
Margin compression
homebuilders protect volume with incentives when demand softens. That usually means margins go first. Toll's recent quarter ran at a 9.8% net margin versus 11.7% for the full year.
a smaller margin on $11.0B of revenue moves earnings fast
Low
Sentiment swings faster than fundamentals
the stock traded between $87 and $168 over the last 52 weeks. That's what cyclical re-rating looks like even before the business fully turns.
you can be right on the company and still get a much cheaper entry point
a slowdown in affluent home demand would hit the full $11.0B revenue base, and the latest quarter already showed how much reported growth can depend on a single $291M land-sales line.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Land sales versus home deliveries
the latest quarter got $291M from land sales. If that normalizes, you want the core homebuilding business to carry the next report.
Trend
Full-year growth staying above 1.1%
last year's revenue growth was only 1.1%. The recent 15% quarter needs follow-through to mean more than favorable mix.
Risk
Net margin slipping below the 11.7% full-year level
the last quarter came in at 9.8%. If that lower margin sticks, the low multiple will start to make sense fast.
Calendar
Next earnings for clean demand confirmation
one quarter with a land-sale windfall is interesting. Two quarters of solid homebuilding demand would matter more.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. In human-speak, analysts think TOL has stronger near-term price momentum than almost everything else they cover.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — a middle-of-the-road risk profile. Not a bunker stock. Not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 means above-average price performance is expected in the year ahead. In human-speak: the tape still looks friendly.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
predictability is decent, not automatic. Quarterly results can look cleaner or messier depending on land sales and housing demand.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
241 buyers vs. 265 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 82.7M shares.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$116
$237
$154
Current price
$177
Target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $240 (+55% · 12% ann'l return)
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