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what it is
Trilogy Metals looks for copper, zinc, gold, silver, and cobalt in Alaska.
how it gets paid
Last year Tmq made n/a in revenue. Arctic VMS deposit was the main engine at $0M, or 40% of sales.
what just happened
The quarter lost $0.05 a share, and the business still has no sales.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.26 fy2025 eps est
$6M fy2024 rev est
1.35 beta
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Trilogy Metals looks for copper, zinc, gold, silver, and cobalt in Alaska.
You own 50% of Ambler Metals LLC, and Ambler owns 100% of UKMP. So you get half the upside and half the waiting. The land package is 190,929 hectares, and 5 employees still have to turn rocks into a mine.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
Arctic VMS deposit
$0M
Bornite deposit
$0M
Ambler district exploration
$0M
Corporate and overhead
$0M
The products that matter
pre-production copper and base metals interest
Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects
50% stake · sole material asset
this is the whole story: a 50% interest in an alaskan mining district that still generates $0 current project revenue.
single-asset thesis
road and access infrastructure
Ambler Access Project
$35.6M pending federal investment
this matters because the project still needs a pending $35.6M federal investment to move the development story forward.
critical catalyst
Key numbers
$0M
debt
No long-term debt means no lender is calling the shots. So what: the company has more room to wait.
190,929
hectares
That is the land package size. So what: the bet is on a very large patch of Alaska.
50%
ownership
You only own half of Ambler Metals LLC. So what: upside and control are shared.
1.35
beta
A 1.35 beta means the stock usually moves 35% more than the market. So what: the name swings harder than the average stock.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $0M (0% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for TMQ right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter lost $0.05 a share, and the business still has no sales.
Revenue was not reported in the filing. The company stayed in developer mode, with no profit and no operating revenue to lean on.
$0M
revenue
-$0.05
eps
0.0%
gross margin
EPS loss
The $0.05 per-share loss matters most. It is slightly worse than the trailing $0.04 loss, so the gap to profit is still open.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is upper kobuk never making the jump from mineral story to producing mine.
high
single-asset concentration
TMQ owns a 50% stake in one core project. there is no second operating asset to offset delays, cost creep, or weak project economics.
100% of the thesis sits inside one development story.
high
funding risk
the company still depends on a pending $35.6M federal investment to help move the ambler access project forward, while current project revenue remains $0.
if that funding slips or disappears, the timeline stretches and the equity story gets harder to defend.
med
permitting and infrastructure
the ambler story still runs through alaska infrastructure and permitting. those are real gates, not paperwork footnotes.
delays can add years before a dollar of mining revenue appears.
med
volatility and sentiment
a 1.35 beta, a 5 / 100 price stability score, and a $1–$11 52-week range tell you this name can reprice violently on thin information.
even small changes in perceived project odds can hit the stock hard.
100% of the story sits in one 50% project interest, and none of it is self-funding because current project revenue is $0.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
$35.6M federal investment
this is the cleanest near-term de-risking event on the page. if it closes, the project story gets more real.
timeline
2026 exploration program
management flagged 2026 activity in the dec. 17, 2025 announcement. you want evidence that the program is moving, not drifting.
street view
$7.83 median analyst target
the range runs from $5.49 to $10.17. that spread tells you analysts agree on the upside story more than they agree on the probability.
risk signal
still no producing mine
until current project revenue moves above $0, every financing and permitting update matters more than traditional earnings metrics.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
low score. in human-speak, the reported numbers tell you less than the project milestones.
risk rank
3
middle-of-the-pack on the model, but the business still behaves like a speculative development asset.
beta
1.35
above 1.0 means bigger swings than the market. you should expect motion.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for TMQ is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$4
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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