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what it is
Taylor Morrison builds and sells U.S. homes, mostly single-family houses, under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brands.
how it gets paid
Last year Taylor Morrison made $8.1B in revenue. single-family detached was the main engine at $5.91B, or 73% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.6% last year. Average home sale prices and operating expenses are apt to remain a headwind in the near term.
what just happened
The quarter looked loud, but the real issue was the $1.76 EPS miss versus a $1.95 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
8.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Taylor Morrison builds and sells U.S. homes, mostly single-family houses, under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brands.
This is a scale business. Taylor Morrison sold 12,997 homes in 2025 at an average $597,000 price, which means you are backing a builder with real volume, not a niche operator. The company also keeps debt at $1.5 billion, or 19% of capital, so it has room to stay alive when housing gets weird.
How they make money
$8.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.6% last year
single-family detached
$5.91B
1.0%
single-family attached
$1.11B
+2.0%
resort lifestyle communities
$0.73B
+15.0%
luxury homes
$0.21B
3.0%
land and other
$0.14B
0.0%
The products that matter
builds and sells homes
Homebuilding
$8.1B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire revenue base. when a business gets all $8.1B from one activity, you do not get diversification — you get clarity.
100% of revenue
expands selling communities
Community Growth Plan
370 communities targeted by 2026
management wants 370 active selling communities by the end of 2026. if that number moves up, the growth case gets more real. if it stalls, so does the story.
key growth lever
shifts mix toward move-up buyers
Portfolio Mix Shift
nearly 20% allocation in planned 2026 expansions
the company is steering nearly 20% of planned 2026 community expansions toward move-up buyers while still serving entry-level demand. that is a margin strategy dressed as product planning.
margin watch
Key numbers
8.3x
trailing p/e
P/E -> price-to-earnings ratio -> how much you pay for each dollar of profit. You are paying less than 9 times earnings for a company still making money.
$8.1B
annual revenue
That is the current size of the machine. A builder doing $8.1 billion in sales is operating at real scale.
13.0%
operating margin
Operating margin -> profit after running the business -> how much is left before interest and taxes. 13.0% is solid for a homebuilder.
$1.5B
long debt
Long-term debt is 19% of capital, which means the balance sheet is not the main problem here.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $1.5B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.9% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TMHC 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,060.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter looked loud, but the real issue was the $1.76 EPS miss versus a $1.95 estimate.
Revenue was reported at $6.0 billion, up 187% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 23.4%. But the latest quarter still missed on EPS by 9.74%, which is what the market actually trades on.
$6.0B
revenue
$1.76
eps
23.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The miss was 9.74%. That matters because a cheap stock loses its defense when earnings come in below the bar.
-
taylor morrison’s strategic portfolio shifts ought to take some time to bear fruit.
-
the company’s planned community expansions for 2026 include a nearly 20% allocation to the esplande resort-style brand.too, in an effort to boost margins and rebalance the portfolio, a key focus will likely be placed on driving specific to-be-built orders from move-up buyers.
-
that said, the company will also continue to offer products for the entrylevel niche.adding it all up, taylor morrison’s community count may well reach 370 by the end of 2026, with nearly six years of land supply remaining for home development.
-
revenues and earnings are likely to dip this year before improving in 2027.average home sale prices and operating expenses are apt to remain a headwind in the near term, alongside a generally choppy housing backdrop. but, given the abovementioned moves, we think the company’s margin profile will improve further out. and, down the road, a healthier macroeconomic climate should support homebuying demand from the move-up category. meanwhile, the millennial and gen-z populations, which have been sidelined for quite some time by elevated mortgage rates, offer another growth avenue.
-
to this point, we are reiterating our view that the federal reserve is likely to lower interest rates.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a housing slowdown that hits orders, pricing, and absorption at the same time.
high
housing demand shock
TMHC gets 100% of its reported revenue from homebuilding. if affordability worsens or buyers step back, the entire $8.1B revenue base is exposed.
direct exposure: 100% of revenue
med
community expansion misses the mark
management is targeting 370 communities by the end of 2026. if that rollout slips, the expected 2027 improvement has less volume behind it.
key operating milestone: 370 communities by 2026
med
margin compression
net margin was 8.6% last year and 9.6% in the latest quarter. that is not wide enough to absorb a lot of pricing pressure and cost inflation at the same time.
profitability cushion: single-digit net margin
a softer housing market would pressure both volume and margin in a business with one revenue stream and an 8.6% net margin.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
community count progress
370 by the end of 2026 is the headline target. this is the cleanest test of whether management is actually expanding capacity.
trend
eps direction
last quarter's $2.01 EPS beat estimates, but it was still down 15% from the prior year. you want that decline to stop before the market pays up.
risk
margin durability
the latest quarter ran at a 9.6% net margin versus 8.6% for the full year. if that slips while pricing stays soft, the cheap multiple will make sense.
calendar
2027 recovery setup
the current narrative says this year is softer and 2027 is better. every quarter from here either supports that handoff or breaks it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock moving with the market, not breaking away from it.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the risk profile is ordinary for a cyclical name. not a bunker. not a grenade.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead, even if the fundamental story still needs proof.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
earnings are moderately predictable, which is another way of saying this is still a cycle-exposed business.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 156 buyers vs. 169 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 93.3M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$51
$88
$65
current price
$70
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+65% · 13% ann'l return)
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