Start here if you're new
what it is
Talen sells electricity from a 13.2-gigawatt U.S. power fleet, including 2.2 gigawatts of nuclear capacity.
how it gets paid
Last year Talen Energy made $2.5B in revenue. zero-carbon generation was the main engine at $1.25B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 60.0% last year. Revenue grew 153% vs. prior year, because it shows demand and pricing are moving fast enough to reshape the story in a single quarter.
what just happened
Revenue hit $1.8B, up 153% vs. prior year, while EPS landed at $2.96.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
12.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
13.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$28.70 fy2027 eps est
$6B fy2029 rev est
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Talen sells electricity from a 13.2-gigawatt U.S. power fleet, including 2.2 gigawatts of nuclear capacity.
Power is local, and Talen already owns 13.2 gigawatts of infrastructure across 12 U.S. locations. Building that from scratch would take years and piles of permits. About 50% of its current megawatt hours are zero-carbon, which means you get cleaner power exposure without paying software-stock multiples.
How they make money
$2.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +60.0% last year
zero-carbon generation
$1.25B
nuclear generation
$0.42B
dispatchable thermal generation
$0.70B
energy and ancillary services
$0.13B
The products that matter
wholesale electricity generation
power generation fleet
13.2 GW · $2.63B trailing revenue
this 13.2 GW fleet generated $2.63B in trailing revenue. that's the base business. every valuation argument starts with whether this fleet earns more from here.
base business
capacity expansion through acquisitions
acquired and pending plants
2.9 GW closed · 2.5 GW pending
talen already added nearly 2.9 GW and agreed to buy another 2.5 GW. that is how a power producer tries to become a much larger infrastructure story fast.
scale bet
long-term contracted power supply
aws power purchase agreement
through 2042 · ~$18B potential
the aws agreement runs through 2042 and could generate roughly $18B over its life. one contract is not the whole company. it is enough to explain why investors stopped treating this like ordinary merchant power.
contracted demand
Key numbers
12.3x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings → how much investors pay for each dollar of profit → at 12.3x, you are not paying a heroic multiple for a company with forward EPS estimated at $39.0).
13.5%
return on capital
Return on capital (profit generated from the money tied up in the business → how efficiently management turns assets into earnings → 13.5% is solid for a heavy-asset power company).
$6.8B
long-term debt
Long-term debt (money owed over many years → fixed financial weight → it equals 30% of capital, so leverage matters if power prices turn against them).
70%
return on equity
Return on equity (profit compared with shareholder capital → how hard the equity base is working → 70% is huge, though leverage helps inflate that number).
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- long-term debt $6.8B (30% of capital)
- net profit margin 27.0% — keeps 27 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 70% — $0.70 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for TLN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $1.8B, up 153% vs. prior year, while EPS landed at $2.96.
Sales exploded versus last year, but EPS still fell 30% vs. prior year. That is the quiet part out loud: bigger revenue did not flow cleanly to per-share profit.
$1.8B
revenue
$2.96
eps
38.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue grew 153% vs. prior year, because it shows demand and pricing are moving fast enough to reshape the story in a single quarter.
-
we are welcoming talen energy corporation into the institutional data.talen is a leading independent power producer and energy infrastructure company that owns and operates approximately 13.2 gigawatts (gw) of power infrastructure in the united states. this includes 2.2 gw of nuclear power and a significant dispatchable fossil fleet that includes over 5.7 gw of lowand zerocarbon baseload generation. the company produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale u.s. power markets, primarily in the midatlantic, ohio and montana. in 2025, talen entered into a power purchase agreement with amazon web services to supply its pennsylvania data center through 2042, with the potential to generate roughly $18 billion in revenue over the life of the contract.
-
the company has been active on the acquisition front.in late november, talen completed the purchases of the freedom generating station in pennsylvania and the guernsey power station in ohio. together, these have added nearly 2.9 gw of modern, highly efficient baseload generation that enhances talen’s ability to provide reliable, low-carbon capacity to hyperscale a.i. data centers. separately, in mid-january, talen announced a definitive agreement to acquire the lawrenceburg power plant and waterford energy center through the purchase of cornerstone generation holdings, which will add over 2.5 gw of natural gasfired capacity in ohio and indiana.
-
we expect the deal to close this summer, subject to customary regulatory approvals.
-
leadership projects solid operational gains in 2026.
-
given the accretive integrations of the november acquisitions, management anticipates adjusted ebitda to range between $1.75 billion and $2.05 billion this year, representing a better than 80% vs. prior year improvement at the midpoint.adjusted free cash flow is projected between $980 million and $1.18 billion, more than doubling 2025’s tally of $524 million at the midpoint.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
TLN is asking you to pay for a larger, cleaner, more contracted company before the reported numbers fully look like one. that's fine when execution is working. it's painful when it isn't.
high
the net-income gap stays open
trailing net margin is -8.3% on $2.63B of revenue, even with a 19.5% EBITDA margin. if operating cash never makes it through interest, depreciation, and the rest of the cost stack, the turnaround story stays a story.
high-impact pressure on valuation and credibility
med
integration and deal-close risk
talen already added nearly 2.9 GW and plans to add more than 2.5 GW through the cornerstone deal. if those assets do not integrate cleanly or the close slips, the 2026 guide starts looking aggressive fast.
medium-impact risk to EBITDA and free-cash-flow targets
med
debt gets heavier if cash flow slips
long-term debt stands at $6.8B, or 30% of capital. that is serviceable if free cash flow really lands at $980M–$1.18B. it feels much heavier if the plants underperform or the larger fleet takes longer to earn.
medium-impact balance-sheet squeeze
med
leadership has to prove it can deliver the new script
the company reshuffled its executive team in december 2025. investors are being asked to trust a new leadership group to integrate assets, serve hyperscale demand, and hit much bigger cash-flow numbers almost immediately.
medium-impact execution uncertainty
what would change our mind: EBITDA below the $1.75B low end of guide, a meaningful delay to the 2.5 GW cornerstone close, or another quarter where cash flow still fails to catch up to the bigger story.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next report: april 29, 2026
the number to watch is not just EPS. you want to see whether management keeps the $1.75B–$2.05B EBITDA guide intact.
integration
does the bigger fleet actually show up in results
2.9 GW has already been added. another 2.5 GW is pending. reported numbers should start looking more like the future story the market is pricing in.
cash flow
free cash flow versus the debt load
$6.8B of long-term debt is manageable if free cash flow really scales toward the $980M–$1.18B guide. that link matters more than headline revenue growth.
deal risk
cornerstone close and regulatory timing
management expects the deal to close in summer 2026. if timing slips, part of the growth case slips with it.
Analyst rankings
street upside
$409
the 3–5 year midpoint target sits 16% above the current price. in human-speak, analysts still see room if the bigger fleet actually earns like the story says it will.
balance sheet view
B++
above average financial health. solid enough to fund a plan, not strong enough to make execution mistakes disappear.
risk posture
3
middle-of-the-pack stability. you are not buying a bunker stock here. you are buying a real operating story with moving parts.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 234 buyers vs. 178 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 48.5M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$222
$595
$353
current price
$409
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $795 (+125% · 23% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive