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what it is
Timken makes the bearings, power parts, and repair services that keep heavy machines from turning into expensive paperweights.
how it gets paid
Last year The Timken made $4.6B in revenue. bearings was the main engine at $2.30B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.2% last year. The core engineered bearings segment was flat vs. prior year due to softer demand in the auto and heavy industries.
what just happened
Timken's latest quarter beat expectations, with EPS at $1.14 versus the $1.11 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
20.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Timken makes the bearings, power parts, and repair services that keep heavy machines from turning into expensive paperweights.
Timken is the leader in tapered roller bearings, and that matters when your railcar, truck, or factory line needs the exact part that fits now. You do not redesign a machine to save a few dollars on a bearing. That reliability helps support a 19.0% operating margin, while 56.0% of 2024 sales came from outside the U.S.
How they make money
$4.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.2% last year
bearings
$2.30B
0.0%
industrial motion
$1.60B
+8.4%
gear drives
$0.30B
0.0%
belts and chains
$0.25B
0.0%
rebuild and repair services
$0.15B
0.0%
The products that matter
government-linked industrial sales
Defense & Government
$2.5B · 55% of revenue
it's the largest revenue bucket at $2.5B. when more than half of sales sit here, this is not a side detail. it's the business line you keep coming back to.
55% of revenue
industrial and commercial sales
Commercial
$1.6B · 35% of sales
this $1.6B segment grew 2.1% last year. that is better than the company total, which makes it the cleanest place to look for improvement from here.
35% of revenue
smaller adjacent revenue bucket
Other
$458M · 10% of sales
at $458M, this segment is not big enough to carry the thesis. it is big enough to help at the margin if the core business stays slow.
10% of revenue
Key numbers
$93
18m target
That is 13.8% below the current $107.84 share price, so the simplest math says your upside is already spent.
19.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Timken is still a solid operator even with sluggish top-line growth.
56.0%
foreign sales
More than half of sales come from outside the U.S., which broadens demand but also exposes you to global industrial slowdowns and currency noise.
$1.9B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: debt is manageable at 20% of capital, but it still limits flexibility if the cycle weakens.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $1.9B (20% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.2% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TKR 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,290.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Timken's latest quarter beat expectations, with EPS at $1.14 versus the $1.11 estimate.
Fourth-quarter 2025 results were decent, and Industrial Motion did the heavy lifting. That segment rose 8.4% vs. prior year to $397 million, while lower material costs helped offset weaker factory utilization.
$3.5B
revenue
$1.14
eps
19.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 8.4% growth in Industrial Motion to $397 million mattered most because it supplied the rare piece of real momentum inside an otherwise slow-growth story.
-
timken closed out 2025 with decent fourth-quarter financial results.
-
the industrial motion segment drove much of the revenue growth, up 8.4% from the year prior to $397 million.the core engineered bearings segment was flat vs. prior year due to softer demand in the auto and heavy industries. earnings of $1.14 were better than expected as a result of higher pricing power and localized manufacturing mitigated the impact of tariffs.
-
the company offset lower manufacturing utilization rates with decreased material costs.
-
timken faces several challenges in 2026.
-
the company is actively restructuring its manufacturing footprint to be closer to end markets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the biggest risk here is not abstract. $2.5B of Timken's $4.6B revenue comes from defense & government, recent quarterly net margin fell to 6.0%, and the stock still trades at 20.2x trailing earnings. if one part slips, the rest of the page feels it.
high
revenue concentration
$2.5B of revenue, or 55% of the business, sits in defense & government. when one bucket is that large, you do not have much room to hide if orders slow.
more than half of total revenue depends on one end market
med
growth stall
full-year revenue grew 0.2% on $4.6B. that is basically flat. a 20.2x trailing multiple gets harder to justify if the top line stays parked there.
limited room for multiple expansion without faster sales growth
med
margin pressure
the recent quarter came in at a 6.0% net margin versus a 9.2% full-year net margin. if that lower level keeps showing up, the $6.00 EPS setup starts looking too generous.
earnings compression matters more than small revenue moves
med
restructuring execution
management is moving manufacturing closer to end markets. that makes sense on paper. you still need to see it show up in costs, lead times, and margins in the numbers.
execution risk carries into 2026 operating results
what would change our mind: commercial growth staying ahead of the 0.2% company pace and net margin recovering from 6.0% toward 9.2%. what breaks the case is simpler: concentration stays high, growth stays flat, and margin does not come back.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
segment mix
55% of revenue comes from defense & government. if that mix gets more concentrated, your risk profile gets worse, not better.
trend
commercial momentum
commercial is $1.6B and grew 2.1% last year. you want to see that side keep growing faster than the company average.
calendar
next earnings margin read
after a 6.0% recent-quarter net margin, the next print matters because it tells you whether that was a dip or a lower base rate.
risk
manufacturing footprint changes
the restructuring plan could improve efficiency. if the savings lag the disruption, you will feel it first in margin and guidance.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock is acting normal, not sending a loud short-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — your risk is pretty standard for an industrial name. not a bunker stock, not a chaos machine.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is moving with the market more than against it.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
management's earnings pattern is relatively dependable. you are buying steadiness, not a serial surprise factory.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 201 buyers vs. 181 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 65.0M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$55
$131
$108
current price
$93
target midpoint · 14% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+20% · 6% ann'l return)
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