Start here if you're new
what it is
TKO sells fights, storylines, arena tickets, sponsorships, and TV rights through UFC and WWE.
how it gets paid
Last year Tko Hldgs made $4.7B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 356.2% last year. Revenue rose 12% vs. prior year to $1.0B.
what just happened
Latest-quarter EPS came in at -$0.08, far below the $0.45 estimate, even as revenue reached $1.0B.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
78.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
TKO sells fights, storylines, arena tickets, sponsorships, and TV rights through UFC and WWE.
UFC and WWE own hours of live programming that fans still watch in real time, and that matters when most TV gets skipped. Media rights (TV and streaming checks → recurring cash → more predictable profits) sit at the center of the model, while the company still posted a 24.5% operating margin. If you want scripted chaos or actual chaos, you usually end up on one of TKO’s brands.
How they make money
$4.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +356.2% last year
total revenue
$4.7B
+356.2%
The products that matter
media-rights and sponsorship engine
Advertising
$2.6B · 55% of revenue
it's the main engine at $2.6B. more than half the business sits here. if distributors and sponsors keep paying up for live audiences, this is where the thesis earns its keep first.
core driver
pay-per-view, subscriptions and content monetization
Subscriptions & Content
$1.7B · 35% of revenue
this $1.7B bucket is the second engine. in human-speak: better distribution deals need to show up here too, not just in a press-release headline about scale.
second engine
events, licensing and everything less predictable
Other
$474M · 10% of revenue
it's the smallest bucket at $474M, but live gates, site fees and licensing still move the short-term story. disclosure is broad here, so you do not get a neat by-brand read.
swing factor
Key numbers
78.1x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings ratio → how expensive the stock is versus profit → you are paying a luxury multiple for a still-messy earnings story) is the whole argument here.
24.5%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business → core earnings power → TKO keeps about 25 cents of every sales dollar before interest and taxes).
$4.0B
long-term debt
Debt (money owed over years → fixed obligations → manageable at 9% of capital, but still real if rights costs climb or ad markets cool).
14.0%
return on capital
Return on capital (profit from invested money → efficiency → solid, but not the kind of number that usually justifies a 78.1x earnings multiple).
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $4.0B (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.2% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 17% — $0.17 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TKO 3 years ago → it's now worth $23,640.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest-quarter EPS came in at -$0.08, far below the $0.45 estimate, even as revenue reached $1.0B.
Revenue rose 12% vs. prior year to $1.0B, but profit went the wrong way. That gap matters because a stock at 78.1x trailing earnings does not get much forgiveness.
$1.0B
revenue
$0.08
eps
50.53%
vs estimate
the number that mattered
The key number was the -50.53% earnings miss, because it showed revenue growth alone did not protect the quarter.
-
all told, we like the long-term prospects here.high-value media rights deals, expanding live events/site fees, and rising global partnerships should drive top- and bottom-line growth.
-
strong free cash flow and a healthy balance sheet support dividends and buybacks.
-
however, the rich valuation leaves limited margin for error if growth slows or costs rise.though untimely, tko holds good appreciation potential over the 18-month stretch and out to late decade.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the whole stock rests on one very specific trick: turn UFC and WWE into richer media checks without letting the cost base eat the difference. if that trick slips, 78.1x trailing earnings stops looking ambitious and starts looking careless.
med
media-rights pricing disappoints
The valuation assumes scarce live programming gets paid more the next time contracts reset. If UFC or WWE renewals land below investor hopes, the premium multiple loses its main defense.
$2.6B of revenue sits in advertising, or 55% of sales. That is the number with the most to lose if distributors and sponsors get less generous.
med
scale still fails to become margin
Revenue surged to $4.7B after bringing UFC and WWE together. The latest quarter still printed a -0.2% net margin and a -$0.08 EPS loss. Bigger is not the same thing as cleaner.
If quarterly profitability stays around breakeven, the path to the $4.00 fy2026 EPS estimate gets harder to trust, and the stock has less room to hide.
med
advertising and consumer demand wobble together
This is both an ad business and a live-event business. That works well when sponsors spend and fans pay up. It works less well when both decide to be selective at the same time.
Between $2.6B in advertising and $1.7B in subscriptions & content, 90% of revenue is tied to attention and willingness to spend on it.
med
the business is still simpler than the story
The market can tell itself a very elegant merger story here. The reported buckets are still broad, and the latest quarter did not give you a neat proof point that the combined machine is humming.
If the reporting stays thin and the profits stay uneven, you are left paying a growth-stock multiple for a thesis that still needs translation every quarter.
55% of revenue comes from advertising, another $1.7B comes from subscriptions & content, and the latest quarter still ran at a -0.2% net margin. If rights renewals disappoint or margins refuse to clean up, most of the bull case breaks at once.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
media-rights renewals
This is the main catalyst. If new UFC or WWE deals come in strong, the valuation story gets easier. If they do not, the multiple probably does the talking for you.
metric
quarterly margin recovery
The last quarter ran at a -0.2% net margin. You want to see scale turn into profit, not just bigger revenue totals and longer investor presentations.
trend
advertising mix
Advertising is 55% of sales. If that share keeps rising, TKO becomes even more exposed to sponsor budgets and audience attention at the exact moment the market wants certainty.
calendar
event cadence and live-event monetization
The $474M other bucket is smaller, but event timing, site fees and licensing still move the short-term read. A thin quarter can look worse when the calendar does not cooperate.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts see less obvious near-term upside after the run and before cleaner earnings show up.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack on risk. not especially safe. not chaos either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks stronger than the earnings picture. welcome to expensive momentum stocks.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 323 buyers vs. 228 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 70.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$161
$331
$199
current price
$246
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $385 (+95% · 18% ann'l return)
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