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what it is
TJX runs T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and similar stores that sell brand-name leftovers at 20% to 60% off.
how it gets paid
Last year Tjx Companies made $56.4B in revenue. Marmaxx was the main engine at $33.7B, or 60% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.0% last year. Consensus was $1.35 EPS, so the 5.93% surprise says demand stayed firm.
what just happened
TJX beat estimates with $1.43 EPS on $42.6B revenue.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
33.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
43.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 78/100 — average
What they do
TJX runs T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and similar stores that sell brand-name leftovers at 20% to 60% off.
TJX buys branded leftovers at 20% to 60% off. You go in for a bargain hunt, and 349,000 employees keep the shelves moving. A 43.5% return on capital means each invested dollar throws off $0.44 of operating profit.
How they make money
$56.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.0% last year
Marmaxx
$33.7B
HomeGoods
$8.4B
TJX Canada
$6.5B
TJX International
$7.8B
The products that matter
discounted branded merchandise
Off-price Merchandise
85% of sales flagged in snapshot data
this is the core business. the company generated $56.4B in total revenue, and this page tags merchandise sales as 85% of sales. that's the engine you are actually underwriting.
core engine
ancillary revenue streams
Services & Other
$5.6B tagged as other revenue
snapshot data attributes $5.6B here, but the segment detail on this page is thin. treat it as supporting revenue, not the main thesis, until fuller disclosure is available.
secondary
Key numbers
$170
18-month target
That's $16.16 above today's $153.84, or 11% upside.
1.2%
cash yield
You get $1.84 a year on a $153.84 share if the payout holds.
43.5%
capital return
TJX turns each invested dollar into $0.44 of operating profit.
33.1x
earnings price
You pay 33.1 dollars for each dollar of trailing earnings.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $1.9B (1% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.6% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 54% — $0.54 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in TJX 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,880.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
TJX beat estimates with $1.43 EPS on $42.6B revenue.
Consensus was $1.35 EPS, so the 5.93% surprise says demand stayed firm. The off-price model kept turning other retailers' leftovers into traffic.
$14.1B
revenue
$1.43
eps
5.93%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 5.93% beat mattered because it showed shoppers still wanted the deal, not just the discount sign.
-
tjx companies’ off-price retail business continues to boom.its market niche is still benefiting from consumers’ focus on value and from retailers working through excess inventory. foot traffic and basket size improved in the october period, showing shoppers are visiting more and spending more per trip, which is consistent with the price-sensitive consumer navigating a still-moderating postinflationary environment.
-
this dynamic was evident as the company posted solid top- and bottom-line advances in the fiscal third quarter of 2025 (year ends january 31st), with growth just over 7% and 12%, respectively, and results modestly exceeding our forecasts.
-
tjx will likely close out the fiscal year and enter 2026 on a strong note.initial reports show strong holiday spending, which will likely support further gains to end fiscal 2025. the retailer entered into the holiday season with elevated inventory after buying into branded supply that can support sales through the holiday season and into the new year.
-
we’ve raised our top-line target to reflect a 6% annual advance over both the final quarter and fiscal full year.
-
a continuation of these factors in fiscal 2026 should help the top line make a similar 5% advance in the year ahead, while margin expansion and share buybacks will likely support earnings growth in the low-double-digit range.we see consumers’ gravitation towards value retail as a secular trend that should be a tailwind for tjx through late decade. we think the discounted retail model will remain relevant regardless of economic cycles with a large consumer base remaining as pricesensitive shoppers. however, supply conditions and intensification from competition could detract from a run-away growth story.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a consumer pullback hitting discretionary apparel and home demand.
med
a weaker shopper can still hurt an off-price chain
TJX benefits when shoppers trade down, but it still sells discretionary goods. if traffic or basket size cracks, the $56.4B revenue base feels it quickly.
impact: the page flags merchandise sales as 85% of sales, so this is the part of the business you cannot hide from.
med
the model works best when the rest of retail miscalculates
off-price thrives on branded excess inventory. if supply normalizes or branded availability gets tighter, TJX has fewer chances to buy opportunistically and wow shoppers.
impact: this page does not provide inventory-turn detail, which means you should watch management commentary closely for any change in sourcing quality.
med
33.1x earnings leaves less room for an ordinary quarter
the stock has already rallied from $91 to $153.84 and now sits near the top of its 52-week range. that's fine if margins hold. less fine if growth stays closer to 4.0% than the market wants.
impact: multiple compression can hurt even when the company stays good. quality does not immunize you from paying too much.
a spending slowdown or sourcing slowdown would hit the same place: the merchandise engine that this page flags as 85% of sales, while a 33.1x trailing p/e means the stock has little patience for slippage.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
the next full-year print
the holiday quarter has to justify the stock's move from $91 to $153.84. one strong quarter is nice. a premium multiple wants confirmation.
metric
net margin after the 9.5% quarter
discount retail does not usually get the benefit of the doubt forever. if margins stay near the recent 9.5%, the premium case holds together.
trend
whether revenue can run faster than 4.0%
the business is large now. if growth stays near 4.0% on a $56.4B base, the question becomes valuation, not quality.
risk
inventory availability and deal quality
management commentary on branded supply matters. the off-price model looks best when better merchandise shows up at the right cost.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the stock.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. not risk-free, just sturdier than most.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but there is no exotic signal hiding here.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings predictability is weaker than the quality narrative suggests. translation: don't confuse a good business with a perfectly smooth quarter.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,160 buyers vs. 1,004 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.0B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$133
$206
$154
current price
$170
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $185 (+20% · 6% ann'l return)
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